Million dollar babies

[FenceBored]

Made reference in another thread to the table in the American Racing Manual of "Status of Top Priced North American Yearlings of XXXX" containing earnings figures for the top 27-33 yearling auction purchases who have just completed their 3yo year. After looking at the one in the 2009 edition of the ARM I decided to throw together a chart of outcomes from the 2004 edition (2001 yearlings) through the 2010 edition (2007 yearlings). Earnings are cumulative through the end of their 3 year old season.

Unr - 10k	103	48.82%
10k - 50k	 57	27.01%
50k - 250k	 40	18.96%
250k - 1m	  9	 4.27%
1m+		  2	 0.95%
------------------------------
Total		211

Unraced alone accounted for 26.07% (55) of the total.

[cnollfan]

Good post. From a betting perspective, here is another tweak of the numbers, subtracting the 55 unraced yearlings.

Earnings less than $10k: 48/156, 31%
$10-$50k, 57/156, 37%
$50-$250k, 40/156, 26%
$250k-$1m, 9/156, 6%
$1m+, 2/156, 1%

I don't hold it against them (too much) once they win, but I bet aggressively against all $1 million + maidens.

[tucker6]

Does it mean that the owners were sold a bill of goods?? Do trainers train the rich kids differently (read pampered) than the nobodies to pretect the investment from injury?? Another reason??

[ddog]

Nope , would you wager on which 5 year old human would win the 400M Olympic dash or play right field in the majors or sire the next one of either?

I was going to use play in the NBA, but I think they have them figured out about then!

[Canadian]

Obviously, it's not a good investment. But what is the % of 10k horses that go on to be millionaires?

[FenceBored]

Originally Posted by Canadian

Obviously, it's not a good investment. But what is the % of 10k horses that go on to be millionaires?

While the percentage is smaller (as there are more cheap ones than expensive ones) I can think of four millionares off the top of my head who raced in the last two years who brought $20k or less as yearlings, two of them $10k or less.

Unbridled Belle -- $4k - $1.9m in earnings
Mine that Bird -- $10k - $2.2m in earnings
Musket Man -- $15k - $1.1m in earnings
General Quarters -- $20k - $1.1m in earnings

[OntheRail]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

While the percentage is smaller (as there are more cheap ones than expensive ones) I can think of four millionares off the top of my head who raced in the last two years who brought $20k or less as yearlings, two of them $10k or less.

Unbridled Belle -- $4k - $1.9m in earnings
Mine that Bird -- $10k - $2.2m in earnings
Musket Man -- $15k - $1.1m in earnings
General Quarters -- $20k - $1.1m in earnings

Then we have The Green Monkey...

[FenceBored]

From Ray Paulicks lead-in on is weekly Graded Stakes standings post:

So far in 2010 there have been 30 individual Grade 1 winners sold at public auction. Their prices range from a low of $8,000 for Evening Jewel (sold at the Keeneland September yearling sale before being resold privately as a 2-year-old) to $650,000 for Tuscan Evening (sold last year at Fasig-Tipton’s November mixed sale). The average price of the 30 Grade 1 winners sold at public auction is $196,200 and the median price if $155,000.
-- http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/am...r-millionaire/

There's a point beyond which paying more doesn't improve your chances of a profit, it decreases them.