Going to the Preakness to bet 25K

[Mc990]

It reads like you don't keep the 25k, which would make sense

[Inner Dirt]

They way I read it they either keep $25k of the payout if Jocko wins or the $25k is lost if Jocko's selection does not win. Do the masses agree or disagree? I hope for Jocko's sake I am wrong.

[AirNate012]

The rules read the same as the Twin Spires contest for the Derby ($25k win bet instead of $10k win bet though).

The contest winner gets a free $25k win wager on 1 horse in the race. If your horse wins, you keep the payout on that wager minus the $25k. This rules out dutching the race like ReplayRandall pointed out. But hey, it's gonna be one hell of a thrill if Jocko's win bet comes home on top!!!

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Dutching the Race using Free Bet

1. Multiplier, Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario, 30-1..........................Bet $650

2. Cloud Computing, Chad Brown/Javier Castellano, 12-1..........Bet $1,550

3. Hence, Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux, 20-1........................Bet 1K

4. Always Dreaming, Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez, 4-5..............Free Bet

5. Classic Empire, Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux, 3-1....................Bet 5K

6. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano/Mike Smith, 15-1...........................Bet 1.3K

7. Term of Art, Doug O'Neill/Jose Ortiz, 30-1..............................Bet $650

8. Senior Investment, Ken McPeek/Channing Hill, 30-1................Bet $650

9. Lookin At Lee, Steve Asmussen/Corey Lanerie, 10-1..............Bet $1850

10. Conquest Mo Money, Miguel Hernandez/Jorge Carreno, 15-1...Bet 1.3K


Total Outlay- $13,950


Payouts per M/L (Adjustments for actual odds, if needed)

1. $20,150
2. $20,150
3. $21,000
4. $20,000
5. $20,000
6. $20,800
7. $20,150
8. $20,150
9. $20,350
10$20,800


Sure profit Minimum $6,050 (No taxes)

Sure profit on Free Bet $6,050 (Pay Taxes)

Sure profit Maximum $7,050 (No taxes)

Above is REVISED for Free Bet Net Profit by Rule....

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Above is REVISED for Free Bet Net Profit by Rule....

What is the tipping point where dutching won't guarantee a profit?


I take it you are assuming Always Dreaming pays $3.60 to win.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

What is the tipping point where dutching won't guarantee a profit?


I take it you are assuming Always Dreaming pays $3.60 to win.

1 to 2 kills profit if Always Dreaming wins.....Actually will show a loss of $1,450 in addition to (taxes on $12.5K from Twinspires "prize")....

Bottom-line, IMO I would bet the $25K on Cloud Computing at 12-1, if it hits----------->$300,000

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Bottom-line, IMO I would bet the $25K on Cloud Computing at 12-1, if it hits----------->$300,000

I won $300,000 once...and I thought it was a "life-changing" score. Alas...I was back at my regular job in 18 months.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I won $300,000 once...and I thought it was a "life-changing" score. Alas...I was back at my regular job in 18 months.

As Vice-President of a bank, perhaps?.....Seems to be the trend right now.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Above is REVISED for Free Bet Net Profit by Rule....

it's smart to save like this. 6/7k is a nice score

and even if you don't cover up yourself for that much of a net profit by not having that much cash on hand, you should bet at least 1/3 of that 13/14K cost bet. by betting, 4.5K try and walk away with at least 2/2.5k net profit. should AD not win

obv you don't want this. and it will give you some hella juice to root like hell for AD for around 10K after all is said and done

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by AirNate012

Wow, if you can keep the original $25k+ your profit, I'd definitely Dutch this race like ReplayRandall mapped out!

I think he stated he has to bet it all on only one horse.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I think he stated he has to bet it all on only one horse.

Whodo, read post #63 first, then 78 & 79, you'll be up to speed in this thread....

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Whodo, read post #63 first, then 78 & 79, you'll be up to speed in this thread....

I thought I was up to speed.

I was responding to Airnate012's post #73 based on jocko699's previous post #57.

Originally Posted by jocko699

I believe I have to bet the entire 25K on one horse. I will make the bet with confidence and know that it is free money.

[Julz]

You can lay it all in on CE or Gunnevera for a big score. You don't want to be left holding nothing on a 4/5 chalk.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I won $300,000 once...and I thought it was a "life-changing" score. Alas...I was back at my regular job in 18 months.

Could've retired to Belize on that.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by Julz

You can lay it all in on CE or Gunnevera for a big score. You don't want to be left holding nothing on a 4/5 chalk.

$25k on Term of Art at 40-1... a cool $1 million.