Beyers make no sense - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Amazin · 08-17-2002, 02:18 AM

looking at the form for BMF 8/16,race #2 you have a horse named Barefoot Caity who on 8/2 at S.R. 9th race finished 3/4 length behind the winner's time of 1:40 and 2/5 for 1 mile for a beyer of 44.
Next entry is Foolish Times who also ran at S.R. on 8/2 but in the 13th race finishing 3-1/2 lenghts behind the winner's time of 1:40 and 4/5 for a beyer of 46.
So Barefoot Caity ran approximately a full second faster than Foolish times at the same track on the same day at the same distance and class but in a different race yet is rated 2 points lower via Beyer's.I dont think this is a misprint as I have seen this before.
Does anyone have an explanation as to this gross misrepresentation or is this just another proof of the unreliability of Beyer's.

BillW · 08-17-2002, 02:25 AM

Amazin,

The most ingenious use of Beyers I've seen yet is people looking for inequities and playing those (I believe a couple of people on this board do this).

Bill

freeneasy · 08-17-2002, 03:13 AM

its probably due to a varient that puts the faster race behind the slower race timewise. it can get screwey I know. I still use em cause their about the closest thing to the figures I used to make

Amazin · 08-17-2002, 10:21 AM

Free

DRF gives both races a 22 variant.These 2 races were run approxametly 1-1/2 hours apart on a clear day.Doubt there would be a change in surface in that time to a Beyer making person that would cause him to rate a horse who is slower by five lengths as faster than the the other unless a tidal wave hit that I don't know about.

Tom · 08-17-2002, 11:15 AM

Two possible reasons com eto mind

1. Split variant
2. Error
3. Tinkering to make figs fit.
Hmmm, that's three things.

What track is SR? I'll check this out. I am one that looks for Beyer errors and finds them more than you would think. CJ does this too.

andicap · 08-17-2002, 11:45 AM

Maybe our friend Mark ("we kid because we love") at the DRF can help us out here.

Amazin · 08-17-2002, 12:08 PM

Tom

S.R. is Santa Rosa,part of the summer fair circuit that they run here in Northern Cal.It is only a two week meet.

freeneasy · 08-17-2002, 12:24 PM

SR is Santa Rosa in Cal.
could be that ol Andy had a few to many rips off the Jack Daniels when he was making the vars. maybe he was having a bachelor party and wasnt even gettin married, strippers n all, btw is that guy married, and how much does the drf pay him for those numbers of his. personally I dont agree with the way he makes his variants and speed # as I feel a few more ingredients could put out a tighter fitting number. But hey if I knew anything about how to write a computer program Id be using my own numbers by far. but since I dont, ol Andy is all I got. I tried it once a long time ago, making up varients by pencil and paper, for all the tracks in the nation, but after three weeks of going crosseyed I turned into a wide eyed zombie, then If I remember correctly I woke up in a sylum for the insaneacappers, O but once there I learned how to knit, make ice cream stick houses and tie my shoelaces all over again. I escaped tho and Lordybe here I am. hehaw

Derek2U · 08-17-2002, 12:25 PM

Just 1 thought on the Beyers: I think the Beyers are too Fitted
to Who the Horse is. Does the horse have Back Class?
What race class is the horse at? Now of course, Beyers manage'
to get away with that because almost always 20K winners will
run faster than $10K winners, but I would like to see ONLY
speed figs and not so much mingling w/ class structures.

Jaguar · 08-17-2002, 03:03 PM

Amazin,

the title of your post says it all; the Beyers are off.

The best work I have seen on correcting the Beyers was done a few years ago, by the developer of the "Stretch Run" handicapping program. He is a mechanical engineer by training and a sharp handicapper. He has moved from Kansas City to Florida and I do not have his new address.

All the best,

Jaguar

andicap · 08-17-2002, 05:02 PM

The guy I know who developed "Stretch Run" lives in Washington State. Are there two "Stretch Run" programs? The program I'm familiar with is rather recent.

cj · 08-17-2002, 07:17 PM

As Tom stated, I look for Beyer errors and try to exploit them. For future reference, the NoCal fair circuit (SR, Sol, Pln, etc.) consistently has the worse made Beyers of all tracks covered by Simulcast Weekly. I don't know why, I just don't take ANY figures earned at those tracks very seriously.

As for the races in question, the Beyer variant for the first three routes that day, race 9, 10 and 12, was around 23, while the 13th was given a 12 for no apparent reason. The speed figures should have been around 42 for Barefoot City and 35 for Foolish Times. That said, speed figures don't mean too much at this lowly level.

It also shows you the Beyers are changed after the fact, as the winner of the Barefoot City race, Whirlwyn, was originally given a 43 in Simulcasat Weekly, and now would appear to have been changed to 45 based on the fact Barefoot was given a 44, higher than the winner originally received.

CJ

Lefty · 08-17-2002, 08:33 PM

The "Stretch Run" I remember was authored by Dan Pope of Royal Turf. Don't know where he is now.

Jaguar · 08-17-2002, 09:29 PM

Dan Pope is the guy. He developed the original Stretch Run method, selling it pre-programmed on a Sharp handheld.

Good program, but you had to pick the right paceline. Also, his speed figures were excellent- so good that I always thought Andy would catch on and improve his figs-.

Curiously, Andy never bothered to wake up and smell the coffee.
I have always said that if Andy had asked Davidowitz to re-do the numbers, the resulting speed ratings would be dead on.

If you want to see superb speed and pace ratings, check out Cramer's numbers in Fastcapper, -uncanny.

Since Dan Pope left the market, there is another guy out there, calling himself "Stretch Run". You gotta have considerable intestinal fortitude to use another program's name. Amazing.

But, then again, maybe Dan never registered the name.

All the best,

Jaguar

MarylandPaul@HSH · 08-17-2002, 10:02 PM

Amazin, that race sounds like a good illustration of the danger of relying on "projected" times when making figures. As far as I know, Beyer believes that making varients based on projected figures is a more accurate approach than the traditional method of comparing times to pars. To echo CJ, I've seen Beyer varients that change several times throughout a card, with no changes in weather. Seems like each race is projected independently on some days.

It sounds good, but it has a way of compounding errors. You make one bad projection, then when horses run back, you make projected figures based on the bad number, and so on. Also, if your projections tend to be too forgiving, or not forgiving enough, you'll find your numbers "creeping". Pretty soon, you have $5k claimers running the $8500 par.

When I made my own numbers, I'd always start with my par charts, then use projections to help clarify confusing days. You'd better be sure when you're giving a Maiden Claimer a number that would win a NW1. Interestingly enough, one of the great advantages of making your own numbers is that you can put a big red "?" next to a day, reminding yourself to proceed with caution. Can't do that when you're selling them

I don't know how Andy does it now, but years ago he had 7 people making figures for every track in North America. Doesn't leave much time for careful consideration.