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04-25-2018, 09:40 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 5,851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
tomorrow (4/24/2018) at 10A. Maybe.
Allan
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April 30th if not then May 14th or 21st. Big item in sw for NJ is the possibility of an “integrity” fee which has been proposed this could hold up wagering once sw is approved in NJ but Drazin has said no way to this fee. Interesting comments by Drazin said it will be approved by SCOTUS but what Type of approval will it be? A lot going on here....
__________________
Remember the NJ horseman got you here now do the right thing with the purses!
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04-26-2018, 02:08 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by One Eye
There are different types of horseplayers. Some will exclusively play horses regardless of the vigorish. However, I have noticed many horseplayers naturally gravitate toward sports betting as they are conceptually similar.
Let me explain why I almost NEVER bet horses anymore. In Nevada (and other states) you receive a pitiful rebate or nothing at all. One day, I walked into a nearby race book and started inquiring about the live betting sports app. The difference in takeout between horse racing and sports betting is exceptional. Assuming you win about 50% percent of your bets, you pay about 4.55% on a typical sports wager. This percentage is even lower on certain bets at certain casinos. For example, I just studied the overnight for the Braves/Reds game. The Reds offer even money and the Braves ask you to pay $110 to win $100. This means the takeout is below 3%. I could conveniently place a bet on this game right now through my smart phone. Additionally, casinos are offering in-game wagering through smart phone apps. The takeout is generally increased on these wagers (e.g., -115 on each side), but the odds constantly fluctuate, which helps savvy bettors find value.
Currently, I allocate about 5% of my play to horseracing. The horseracing industry has decided that a chosen few will receive reasonable takeout, while the average sucker is subjected to ridiculous takeout such as 17% takeout on win bets. Takeout of 23% or more is not uncommon on exotic wagers. Trying to stay alive under these circumstances, in the absence of meaningful rebates, is an exercise in futility. Sports betting offers more appeal to most bettors, as they will generally lose a lot less and have a larger menu of wagering options.
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When the racing industry decided new fans were more trouble then they were worth, they killed the smart recreational handicapper. Dumb money was virtually eliminated. In NY, we lost all those OTB guys playing the Apple-Boy Daily Double, betting right off the entry sheet. Back in the day, if you read the Form you were a prince among men. Now all that is left is the whales who get giant rebates, the guys putting in a million bets at the bell through direct computer access to the pools, and the serious recreational guys who are being eaten alive by the first two.
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04-26-2018, 05:55 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by onefast99
April 30th if not then May 14th or 21st. Big item in sw for NJ is the possibility of an “integrity” fee which has been proposed this could hold up wagering once sw is approved in NJ but Drazin has said no way to this fee. Interesting comments by Drazin said it will be approved by SCOTUS but what Type of approval will it be? A lot going on here....
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If it’s a narrow ruling For Jersey, that would be the best.
That way the state would keep its noses out of it.
Monmouth and the casinos would make their own rules and that’s that.
Once jersey gets involved in something it’s a horror show. Look how long it took adw and exchange wagering. Forever.
Allan
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04-27-2018, 11:43 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding about handle.
People have X amount of dollars they can afford to lose per week or month etc... on gambling. The vast majority of them will lose X or close to X at various rates depending on the game they play and other factors. If people start betting sports they will lose of portion of whatever they were formerly betting on other gambling games (including horses) on sports instead.
The End.
The only good way to increase the bottom line to the racing industry is to increase MARKET SHARE of gambling dollars. Little tweaks that may impact the handle don't do much for the bottom line. They just change the rate at which the customer loses X. To have an impact, you have to make gambling on horses a better overall value proposition in terms of probability of wining and entertainment than the other options (like poker, sports, lotteries etc..)
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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04-27-2018, 03:53 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hambletonian
When the racing industry decided new fans were more trouble then they were worth, they killed the smart recreational handicapper. Dumb money was virtually eliminated. In NY, we lost all those OTB guys playing the Apple-Boy Daily Double, betting right off the entry sheet. Back in the day, if you read the Form you were a prince among men. Now all that is left is the whales who get giant rebates, the guys putting in a million bets at the bell through direct computer access to the pools, and the serious recreational guys who are being eaten alive by the first two.
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100% agree.
I knew a guy at NYCOTB that used to bet 2K a pop into small pools and complain to me that all the horses he was betting were opening up the favorite.
The pools used to be full of players that were just tossing money around in the same way people buy scratch off lottery tickets. A ton of that money is gone forever. At the same time, premium information and discussion with top players is available all over the place. What took me 10-20 years of trial and error to learn on my own you can probably learn in a couple of years now. I feel like I am learning at an accelerated rate now too, but I'm in a hamster wheel.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-01-2018, 08:44 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hambletonian
When the racing industry decided new fans were more trouble then they were worth, they killed the smart recreational handicapper. Dumb money was virtually eliminated. In NY, we lost all those OTB guys playing the Apple-Boy Daily Double, betting right off the entry sheet.
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California was late to the party as state run lottos and OTBs did not spring up till the mid 80's. The lotto took away a lot of the people betting off the program, they kind of disappeared on track in Cali almost overnight.
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05-02-2018, 12:26 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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TVG's take
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05-02-2018, 12:48 PM
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#53
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Horse racing is a "sport" that we can bet on.
It's not going away, there's too much money involved in breeding and selling.
If we lose some tracks, so what?
They're not all closing.
There will always be horses running somewhere we can bet on.
Last edited by Denny; 05-02-2018 at 12:51 PM.
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05-02-2018, 06:24 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Horse racing is a "sport" that we can bet on.
It's not going away, there's too much money involved in breeding and selling.
If we lose some tracks, so what?
They're not all closing.
There will always be horses running somewhere we can bet on.
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sober and pretty optimistic analysis
kudos
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05-07-2018, 12:35 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding about handle.
People have X amount of dollars they can afford to lose per week or month etc... on gambling. The vast majority of them will lose X or close to X at various rates depending on the game they play and other factors. If people start betting sports they will lose of portion of whatever they were formerly betting on other gambling games (including horses) on sports instead.
The End.
The only good way to increase the bottom line to the racing industry is to increase MARKET SHARE of gambling dollars. Little tweaks that may impact the handle don't do much for the bottom line. They just change the rate at which the customer loses X. To have an impact, you have to make gambling on horses a better overall value proposition in terms of probability of wining and entertainment than the other options (like poker, sports, lotteries etc..)
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Well I think this is basically right but with one exception.
Sports bettors are at least the SORT of people who might be amenable to try horse racing. A lot of them already love statistics, for instance.
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05-11-2018, 10:20 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 146
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I will bet less on racing
Why? Racing has NEVER figured out how to treat its customers. I am getting tired of being shit on by tracks and companies that own the tracks but only care about their casino customers. I guess you could say it is my way of giving racing the middle finger by spending my wagering dollars on sports instead of racing.
Hopefully this message will be heard by the only people that seem to make money on racing, The wealthy owners, syndicates, big name trainers and money making jockeys. If they don't care about me as a customer, maybe I should give some thought as to why I would want to wager on a sport that benefits them!
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05-11-2018, 10:27 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Horse racing is a "sport" that we can bet on.
It's not going away, there's too much money involved in breeding and selling.
If we lose some tracks, so what?
They're not all closing.
There will always be horses running somewhere we can bet on.
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You are the type of fan the antiquated people running horse racing count on. Enjoy while you can. I wager less and less and I am part of the demographic racing needs to attract to continue on if it wants to last more than 15 years (in case you haven't noticed Denny, outside of a few big race days and boutique meets, most of the customers will be gone in the next 15-20 years)!.
I hope you enjoy getting shit on as a customer. The flies that run racing enjoying feeding off of people that think like like you!
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05-13-2018, 09:35 AM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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The sports leagues that exist now and the new ones that will be started to capitalize on the gambling dollars will out market the horse racing companies. In-game betting and games scheduled all day to accommodate gamblers will make for tough competition. The manner in which sports is presented to the public is going to change a great deal once gambling is legalized , and when it comes to changing I don't see horse racing having a chance against the global marketing power of the sports leagues .Yesterday I looked at a few Woodbine races and noticed in roughly 25 starts Norman McKnight is hitting 60% winners and 100% in the money and I think some people may prefer a more level playing field for their gambling dollar.
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05-13-2018, 09:38 AM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,766
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probably the main reason why horse racing did very well for many years was that it was the only sport that had fan participation in it. first, everyone that went to the races could place a wager on the outcome of the race. 2nd, you could either own a race horse or own and train a race horse and be a small entity and be able to survive the game as well as the bigger guys.
today racing has managed to scare the bettors away due to lack of transparency and integrity. they also made it impossible for small owners and trainers to survive and have basically eliminated them.
the betting part is real doozer. they rewarded the larger bettors with more access to the mutual pools and higher rebates than the smaller guys can get. what the game doesn't realize is that by scaring away the smaller bettors also diminishes the opportunity for a smaller guy to get a bigger one interested in the game and become a potential customer.
the game has had many shots in the arm to jump start it with simulcasting, casino money, breaks in the tax code. nothing has really helped it.
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05-14-2018, 10:07 AM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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