2023 Melbourne Cup

[woodbinepmi]

Tonight is the Melboune Cup (Race 7), here are the pp's for the card. Post time for the Cup is at 11pm ET 8pm PT.
These are from the HKJC, so the last race is at the bottom of the pp's.
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...ter_S3_all.pdf

[PhantomOnTour]

Thank you for that link

I'm betting that Joao Moreira will get #6 Soulcombe out of the gate in good order and the horse will do the rest. He should be going best late and the 2m trip looks well within his grasp.
Giving consideration to a few others (aside from the likely top choices in the #1 and #3), namely #8 Right You Are whom I expect to challenge for the lead turning for home. The 2m may not be his cup of tea but the price will be right.
I'll post my bet a little later.

[Mr_Ed]

Commentators questioning European runners handling the Aussie heat.

Conditions are exact to BC days ago.

Did they not watch?

[PhantomOnTour]

TRI
6
1,3,5,8
1,3,5,8,9,15,17,20,21

TRI
6
9,15,17,20,21
1,3,5,8

EX
1,3 w 6,8

EX Box
6,8

WIN
6,8

Come on Soulcombe!
Will the weather be a factor? It's 84 degrees there today.

Good luck y'all

[Onesome]

/ for me

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

TRI
6
1,3,5,8
1,3,5,8,9,15,17,20,21

TRI
6
9,15,17,20,21
1,3,5,8

EX
1,3 w 6,8

EX Box
6,8

WIN
6,8

Went deep on this race and managed to catch the exacta. Man, if Soulcombe could ever get out of the gate he would be a star. He got left (again) and Moreira had to wait & weave his way down the stretch.
He was moving the best down the lane.

Jockey Zahra wins his 2nd straight Melbourne Cup.
I love this race

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

Tonight is the Melboune Cup (Race 7), here are the pp's for the card. Post time for the Cup is at 11pm ET 8pm PT.
These are from the HKJC, so the last race is at the bottom of the pp's.
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...ter_S3_all.pdf

Dang it, I missed this race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUHC_WLBiYQ&ab_channel=AtTheRaces

[HKHandicapper]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Thank you for that link

I'm betting that Joao Moreira will get #6 Soulcombe out of the gate in good order and the horse will do the rest. He should be going best late and the 2m trip looks well within his grasp.
Giving consideration to a few others (aside from the likely top choices in the #1 and #3), namely #8 Right You Are whom I expect to challenge for the lead turning for home. The 2m may not be his cup of tea but the price will be right.
I'll post my bet a little later.

If you see the chopper shot (

YouTube

) hope link works and then look at the sectional data it's an awful ride by the magic man.

All he had to do was stay on Without A Fights back, it drags him into the race, he pulls out and goes straight past it.

You are very unlucky.

Re the Euros.

I know what you mean, CA heat and they had to go there. But Wonder if a bit different given Vauban was a hurdler from Ireland, and climate and travel to Aus much different.

Anyway, he went awful.

[PhantomOnTour]

Yeah, the overhead shows just how badly Soulcombe broke from the gate (easily 4 lengths slow).

You're right - he was right behind the winner coming off the final turn and Moreira chose a different path, which made all the difference. He had to alter course about three times in the stretch before finding a seam. By then the winner was long gone.
It's a tough game.

Still love that race though, and I made a small score, so I won't complain.

[davew]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Dang it, I missed this race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUHC...nel=AtTheRaces

wow near 3:00 in that clip there are 20 horses within 4 lengths at top of stretch

[steveb]

Originally Posted by HKHandicapper

If you see the chopper shot (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98A62J-G1Wo) hope link works and then look at the sectional data it's an awful ride by the magic man.

All he had to do was stay on Without A Fights back, it drags him into the race, he pulls out and goes straight past it.

You are very unlucky.

Re the Euros.

I know what you mean, CA heat and they had to go there. But Wonder if a bit different given Vauban was a hurdler from Ireland, and climate and travel to Aus much different.

Anyway, he went awful.

You are being a bit harsh.
No way Soulcombe wins that race, no matter where it tracked.
At best it finishes a bit closer.
It misses the kick habitually.
The ride on the winner as it turns out was very very good.

Interested in what you think the sections prove?
Are they even accurate?
How can a horse travel less than the actual race distance as an example?

[HKHandicapper]

Originally Posted by steveb

You are being a bit harsh.
No way Soulcombe wins that race, no matter where it tracked.
At best it finishes a bit closer.
It misses the kick habitually.
The ride on the winner as it turns out was very very good.

Interested in what you think the sections prove?
Are they even accurate?
How can a horse travel less than the actual race distance as an example?

fair call, here's how I arrived at the conclusion -

from the eye:
at about the 2min 50sec mark Soulcombe is a length off WAF.

Without A Fight is second or third favourite in the race, so I'd assume it would drag him into the race.

he then shifts in and out multiple times trying to find clear running, he is 3 lengths off WAF, so not tagging WAF through has cost him to the eye 2lenghts.

@ the 600m, he is on sectional data around 1.3L off WAF.

sectionals between 600-200m say WAF +2.5L
sectionals last 200m say Soulcombe +1.2

the variance between the 600-200m is the race margin effectively, and that's where Soulcombe is never -

balanced up to accelerate or establishes any run to accelerate to the line.

considering Soulcombe's the only horse in the race to break 12seconds for the last 200m, and runs the same last 400m time as WAF when for 200m of that he isn't balanced up to give his all, I think it's easy to conclude that if he follows WAF through and produced with 300m to go, he makes up the length he needed to on WAF and goes straight past him with 3kg variance at the end of 3200m.

The Stewards:
Soulcombe (GB) Slow to begin (3L). Near the 650m was held up and was steadied from the heels of Without A Fight. Held up for clear running from the 350m until passing the 300m, where it was disappointed for a run between Gold Trip and Sheraz, which shifted out. Soulcombe then shifted back in passing the 250m to improve.

It's a game of opinions, and the above can never be proven. But I am positive in my mind based on the data and the eye that if Soulcombe follows WAF he would have won the race.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by HKHandicapper

fair call, here's how I arrived at the conclusion -

from the eye:
at about the 2min 50sec mark Soulcombe is a length off WAF.

Without A Fight is second or third favourite in the race, so I'd assume it would drag him into the race.

he then shifts in and out multiple times trying to find clear running, he is 3 lengths off WAF, so not tagging WAF through has cost him to the eye 2lenghts.

@ the 600m, he is on sectional data around 1.3L off WAF.

sectionals between 600-200m say WAF +2.5L
sectionals last 200m say Soulcombe +1.2

the variance between the 600-200m is the race margin effectively, and that's where Soulcombe is never -

balanced up to accelerate or establishes any run to accelerate to the line.

considering Soulcombe's the only horse in the race to break 12seconds for the last 200m, and runs the same last 400m time as WAF when for 200m of that he isn't balanced up to give his all, I think it's easy to conclude that if he follows WAF through and produced with 300m to go, he makes up the length he needed to on WAF and goes straight past him with 3kg variance at the end of 3200m.

The Stewards:
Soulcombe (GB) Slow to begin (3L). Near the 650m was held up and was steadied from the heels of Without A Fight. Held up for clear running from the 350m until passing the 300m, where it was disappointed for a run between Gold Trip and Sheraz, which shifted out. Soulcombe then shifted back in passing the 250m to improve.

It's a game of opinions, and the above can never be proven. But I am positive in my mind based on the data and the eye that if Soulcombe follows WAF he would have won the race.

The sections at flemington are GPS related and probably not worth 2 bob.
If you got sections from Punting Form, Micheal Fraser, Accardi, the mob that now does Flemington, etc,etc; of one thing you can be certain....they will all be different.
I don't think many people have got a clue when it comes to the sections.
Even if the accuracy is right, then you still have the problems of rail position movements, topography, wind, and much much more.
They all are worthless without CONTEXT.

An one more point ....lengths faster or slower than par, are nonsensical.
A length metric is worth different things at different distances.
Daneil O'Sullivan, to his credit, is the only one that acknowledges it, after I asked if he told his subscribers that a length is not a constant.


As far as Soulcombe is concerned, we can disagree.
I think it had buckley's and none of winning that, it may have finished a bit closer, but the winner was dominant.
And I backed Soulcombe as well as a couple of others.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by steveb

The sections at flemington are GPS related and probably not worth 2 bob.
If you got sections from Punting Form, Micheal Fraser, Accardi, the mob that now does Flemington, etc,etc; of one thing you can be certain....they will all be different.
I don't think many people have got a clue when it comes to the sections.
Even if the accuracy is right, then you still have the problems of rail position movements, topography, wind, and much much more.
They all are worthless without CONTEXT.

An one more point ....lengths faster or slower than par, are nonsensical.
A length metric is worth different things at different distances.
Daneil O'Sullivan, to his credit, is the only one that acknowledges it, after I asked if he told his subscribers that a length is not a constant.


As far as Soulcombe is concerned, we can disagree.
I think it had buckley's and none of winning that, it may have finished a bit closer, but the winner was dominant.
And I backed Soulcombe as well as a couple of others.

Right here.....this!!!

A case in point for US speed figure handicappers.

[HKHandicapper]

Originally Posted by steveb

The sections at flemington are GPS related and probably not worth 2 bob.
If you got sections from Punting Form, Micheal Fraser, Accardi, the mob that now does Flemington, etc,etc; of one thing you can be certain....they will all be different.
I don't think many people have got a clue when it comes to the sections.
Even if the accuracy is right, then you still have the problems of rail position movements, topography, wind, and much much more.
They all are worthless without CONTEXT.

An one more point ....lengths faster or slower than par, are nonsensical.
A length metric is worth different things at different distances.
Daneil O'Sullivan, to his credit, is the only one that acknowledges it, after I asked if he told his subscribers that a length is not a constant.


As far as Soulcombe is concerned, we can disagree.
I think it had buckley's and none of winning that, it may have finished a bit closer, but the winner was dominant.
And I backed Soulcombe as well as a couple of others.

Fair enough. I wasn't comparing to pars, simply the 200m sectional data provided on .com and using that against what I could see on chopper shot.

We'll never know what happens if he follows WAF through.

Hope you found a winner today