The coronavirus

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The VAST MAJORITY of non-elderly, non-immunocompromised folks will get nothing but BAD COLD or Flu symptoms from this COVID-19.

Why are we treating this thing like EBOLA?

What am I missing? I've heard countless doctors and esteemed scientists say exactly what I just typed above. The reason why cases are showing up now in Washington is that this thing has been around a LOT LONGER than people thought. And the vast majority of those who had it (and got over it) didn't know they had anything more than a BAD COLD or Flu. And we'll NEVER KNOW ABOUT THEM because they recovered at home, thinking they had a cold or flu, and they will never be tested.

And that may be true...however, I'm not a disease control physician. Either are you. We can merely draw on what we learn from those who are. And that all depends on which ones you are listening to, as well as your personal approach to germ control.

I just posted what I *see*. I have a little bench where I lay down my purse, above my shoes, before entering the larger part of my residence. (it skeeves me when I see women put their purse down on kitchen table or counters.....after lugging around in public places and in shopping carts, etc. all day). I would not eat at their house LOL

(when you have a family member who has advanced chronic illness + immunocompromised + is over 90, this is how you do things------and then it becomes a habit).

I was in a public bathroom the other day and woman next to me said: "you must be a nurse!"
I said "nope. Why do you say that?"
She said: "because you're one of the few people I ever encounter in a public restroom who I observe actually understands proper hand-washing method".



The mask thing makes no sense to me though. Why are people running out to buy masks? They are only useful for those who HAVE a disease already, to keep them from spraying particles out into the air.......any airborne particles go right thru the sides and tops of those paper masks for the wearers who are trying to prevent getting sick.


BTW, didn't some of those physicians in China end up getting the virus? Despite all that hardware? I don't think we know *enough* about this particular virus yet....maybe you do

Plus at the time, THEY didn't know what exactly they were dealing with, so they suited-up (logical and smart if you ask me)

[Tom]

Watch the MythBusters show about washing your hands in a public bathroom.

Shocked me! Shocked, I say!

I wash my hands if I walk past a public restroom!

Talk about the willies!

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Tom

Watch the MythBusters show about washing your hands in a public bathroom.

I guess it depends on your protocol. Soap in an autofeed dispenser, auto-feed water where you don't touch any faucet handles, and paper towels in an autofeed or hand-blower, is diseased?

If you use soap and warm water, and then don't touch anything on your way out including the handles of anything, then it's pretty safe.

Bathrooms that don't have these features are not ones I use. in such cases I just use my hand sanitizer til I can find a civilized bathroom.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What am I missing?

Start with the mortality rate.

University of Minnesota site
Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News | Feb 24, 2020|
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention today describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.

If the numbers from the above study are accurate, that means COVID-19 is about 23X more likely to kill those infected than common strains of the flu.

However, I suspect maybe it's the last sentence from the above quoted text that hints at what might be the main reason for all the commotion.

The disease hits the elderly the hardest. And there are a lot of elderly.

According to this article at the CDC site:

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) developed in 17–29% of hospitalized patients, and secondary infection developed in 10%. [2,4] In one report, the median time from symptom onset to ARDS was 8 days.[3] Between 23–32% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia have required intensive care for respiratory support.

As the virus spreads -- and IF the numbers experienced by China are what other parts of the world can expect:

If that's the case, then, Imo, this disease brings with it potential to overwhelm the health care systems in many parts of the world.

Imo, that's why all the commotion.

All of that said, maybe you are right. It's entirely possible that COVID-19 is being over-hyped by the media.

From an editorial written by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D. published on The New England Journal of Medicine site on Feb 28, 2020 --

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

In their Journal article, Li and colleagues3 provide a detailed clinical and epidemiologic description of the first 425 cases reported in the epicenter of the outbreak: the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. Although this information is critical in informing the appropriate response to this outbreak, as the authors point out, the study faces the limitation associated with reporting in real time the evolution of an emerging pathogen in its earliest stages. Nonetheless, a degree of clarity is emerging from this report. The median age of the patients was 59 years, with higher morbidity and mortality among the elderly and among those with coexisting conditions (similar to the situation with influenza); 56% of the patients were male. Of note, there were no cases in children younger than 15 years of age. Either children are less likely to become infected, which would have important epidemiologic implications, or their symptoms were so mild that their infection escaped detection, which has implications for the size of the denominator of total community infections.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

-jp

.

[clicknow]

Both regular seasonal flu and Covid-19 can cause the same effects in certain at-risk populations.

However, while both the flu and COVID-19 may be transmitted in similar ways (see the Similarities section at John Hopkins website), there is also a possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route, meaning that tiny droplets remaining in the air could cause disease in others even after the ill person is no longer near.



So----if you are not dealing with loved ones who have autoimmune disorders, are fighting cancer/on chemo, are elderly, have asthma or COPD, etc. then you should count your blessings.

For those of us NOT in that (luxurious and priviledged) state of being, when we see improper disease prevention protocol in photographs such as I posted, the reality that sloppy practices increase the chances of larger spread to the general population........a population that your "compromised" loved ones are part of is in your mind.

For them, this may as well be Ebola or Chernobal.....because chances are it will be deadly to them.

Perspective is everything, Mr. Paceadvantage. I'm glad you don't have to worry. I would not wish that added anxiety on anyone.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by clicknow

And that may be true...however, I'm not a disease control physician. Either are you. We can merely draw on what we learn from those who are. And that all depends on which ones you are listening to, as well as your personal approach to germ control.

I just posted what I *see*. I have a little bench where I lay down my purse, above my shoes, before entering the larger part of my residence. (it skeeves me when I see women put their purse down on kitchen table or counters.....after lugging around in public places and in shopping carts, etc. all day). I would not eat at their house LOL

(when you have a family member who has advanced chronic illness + immunocompromised + is over 90, this is how you do things------and then it becomes a habit).

I was in a public bathroom the other day and woman next to me said: "you must be a nurse!"
I said "nope. Why do you say that?"
She said: "because you're one of the few people I ever encounter in a public restroom who I observe actually understands proper hand-washing method".



The mask thing makes no sense to me though. Why are people running out to buy masks? They are only useful for those who HAVE a disease already, to keep them from spraying particles out into the air.......any airborne particles go right thru the sides and tops of those paper masks for the wearers who are trying to prevent getting sick.


BTW, didn't some of those physicians in China end up getting the virus? Despite all that hardware? I don't think we know *enough* about this particular virus yet....maybe you do

Plus at the time, THEY didn't know what exactly they were dealing with, so they suited-up (logical and smart if you ask me)

I understand the elderly and those with underlying medical issues are in far greater danger with this virus. They are also in far greater danger from the common flu compared to the average population. COVID-19 hasn't changed much in that regard.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Start with the mortality rate.

University of Minnesota site
Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News | Feb 24, 2020|
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate



If the numbers from the above study are accurate, that means COVID-19 is about 23X more likely to kill those infected than common strains of the flu.

However, I suspect maybe it's the last sentence from the above quoted text that hints at what might be the main reason for all the commotion.

The disease hits the elderly the hardest. And there are a lot of elderly.

According to this article at the CDC site:



As the virus spreads -- and IF the numbers experienced by China are what other parts of the world can expect:

If that's the case, then, Imo, this disease brings with it potential to overwhelm the health care systems in many parts of the world.

Imo, that's why all the commotion.

All of that said, maybe you are right. It's entirely possible that COVID-19 is being over-hyped by the media.

From an editorial written by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D. published on The New England Journal of Medicine site on Feb 28, 2020 --

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387




-jp

.

You being a stats guy should know there aren't enough cases recorded to make that mortality rate anywhere near accurate. There are so many variables that affect mortality rate. The vast majority of deaths have occured in China.

Do we know the medical histories of all those who have died? Do we know what kind of medical care they receive in their province? No, we don't, and China probably isn't going to be all that keen to share all the info that might be needed.

I'm not saying ignore it. But for the love of Pete, this thing has been overboard since day 1...or else they aren't telling us a vital piece of information that has them all in a panic frenzy.

Let's see how the mortality rate shifts once this virus spreads to every corner of the globe, as the doomsayers tell us it will...I'm betting the mortality rate will fall from the numbers you posted. Logic tells me this.

[Jeff P]

See the bottom part of my post where I said you may in fact be right about COVID-19 being over-hyped by the media and then went on to quote an editorial from The New England Journal of Medicine site where the authors suggested exactly that.


-jp

.

[clicknow]

Yeah, I don't disagree with you guys in theory at all.

I focus on the science and figuring out this puzzle from an epidemiological perspective, I'm not freaking out and won't be......never does any good anyway.

(I don't deny that I was speaking earlier of being "concerned" because of a personal situation, ie. my SIL is sitting in a hyperbaric 02 chamber right now post radical double mastectomy that got infected......and my elderly sick mom is in a weakened state at age 92. I'd have to be an inanimate boulder not to be feeling anxious about of all this). Plus all that hospital-related stuff when you have to put them in the hospital just sets you on end.......well, you just have to deal with the hand you're dealt.

So--back to what is interesting ....this particular virus it is not hitting children, or they are having mild cases and/or symptom-less.

That alone seems like it would help general research in the area of flu viruses, because this is not true of the regular seasonal flu.

As Jeff P. noted, the elderly are indeed the ones getting hit hard, which is true of any communicable disease. My final thoughts are that millions of people, worldwide, will probably get this flu, so it will serve like an extension of seasonal flu season....which we were hoping to be at the tail end of this time of year.

And, that the typical populations that don't do well with these things will be hardest hit......and the rest of the population will just suffer the typical flu and cold season outcomes like they do every year, some with dire outcomes but most without dire outcomes.

I think the *novelty* of discovering a new virus is what is concerning the experts. But it's probably not much different than the ones we already have. (Or will have, as the world gets more mobile, and we continue to dig up and disturb environments that haven't been explored and some of "weird stuff" is going to jump out and go looking for a ride on new hosts. .....
I dunno how many of these things will or should require full-on hazmat suits. I guess we will find out! Here we sit, the earth just spinning on it's axis........an adventure to be sure.

I left out the bad part: many health systems may be overwhelmed by this.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

We have a vaccine for influenza.

We do not have one for COVID-19

Apples and oranges.

Allan

oh there is one...don't kid yourself...you just ain't in THE 1%....and neither am I unfortunately...

[JustRalph]

Dr drew told off the news people for ginning up fear...

He seemed very serious too

He quoted some numbers that I think I first heard from PA..;;.

Uh oh....;

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Dr drew told off the news people for ginning up fear...

He seemed very serious too

He quoted some numbers that I think I first heard from PA..;;.

Uh oh....;

I think those that are already severely compromised are in grave danger until summer. Those who are facing a tough time and their loved ones need not feel extra pain from irresponsible media personality's. I hope and pray that everyone here gets past this one, but fear years to come the media will even be more irresponsible because it is just the times we are living in.

[Robert Fischer]

hopefully this is contained, or just becomes a seasonal viral pneumonia

already good medicine and treatments for the symptoms and to aid recovery

i've had pneumonia a bunch of times, multiple lung collapses, multiple aortic surgeries, spent months in the hospitals, years in a bed or couch... If I get pneumonia again I'm killing it again. You have to be brave.

gov't and media doing a good job keeping the public calm and the economy reasonably strong. Those are the cornerstones to handling this. Hopefully the whole story turns out to be relatively insignificant.

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Dr drew told off the news people for ginning up fear...

He seemed very serious too

He quoted some numbers that I think I first heard from PA..;;.

Uh oh....;

"And in our new season of Celebrity Rehab, let's welcome an Internet entrepreneur, the founder and owner of the horse racing website Pace Advantage, Mike..."

[snappit]

Originally Posted by Tom

Corporate Tax rates at a 10% level for those who make it here.
That should stimulate a few places.

Require ALL imports to be manufactured under the SAME laws - labor, environmental, etc, as those made in the USA.

THAT is worker-protection!

Instead of allowing cheap labor, we set the standard for the world to improve the lives of workers world-wide.
What better way to lead the world to a better tomorrow.

Win/Win for all involved, other than greedy scumbags everywhere.

No need for unions when we have Trump on our side!

I sort of agree with you on this. I suppose that in order to be fair you would then agree that all America's exports to the EU (and the UK when we do a deal) should conform to the same standards of Labour law etc that the EU have?