I asked myself this question a few years ago after a few horses off long layoffs beat me, or won a race I didn't bet--Can a horse like this be compared to a first time starter?
I looked up the ratings for first time starters in Bris's Sire stats book for horses off 6+ months. I only used the sire, not the dam's sire like I do for firsters or first on turf.
Horse that had A and B ratings did win more of long layoffs.
A horse at Penn, which was a long time ago since I haven't played there in years, won a 30-1 after almost a year off. It had one race won in slow time. The breeding was a an A.
I do not use this as a stand alone, i.e. bet all A's and B's.
I want a decent trainer with long layoffs and workouts to prove fitness, and maybe the horse had long lay off in the pp's to see how it did, or if 10 or fewer races, how did it do in it's debut, though I don't hold a first bad as too negative.
I still use 6 months since it's more than a freshening, if one wanted to use 9 or 12 months it might be even more valuable, and have fewer horses to look up.
|