Turf Racing Stats

[cj]

Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by cj

Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

I'm ignorant of this stuff but here goes...maybe after I won't be, having actually learned something..

Pace call
Average...72
Median...72

Final Fraction...
Average... 75
Median...75

[cj]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I'm ignorant of this stuff but here goes...

Pace call
Average...72
Median...72

Final Fraction...
Average... 75
Median...75

I'm sure the pace call will be higher than turf, I'd go at least 75% and maybe 80%. For the final fraction I think it will be much lower, maybe as low as 60.

Distance might be more of a factor on dirt than it was on turf.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm sure the pace call will be higher than turf, I'd go at least 75% and maybe 80%. For the final fraction I think it will be much lower, maybe as low as 60.

Distance might be more of a factor on dirt than it was on turf.

Yeah I think you are right...I'll revise

Pace call
Average..77
Median...77

Final Fraction
Average...65
Median...65

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by cj

Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

A comparison of graded stakes to claiming might be interesting. My hunch is early speed is more important for the cheap horses on both surfaces?!

[cj]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

A comparison of graded stakes to claiming might be interesting. My hunch is early speed is more important for the cheap horses on both surfaces?!

I've done that before, and it is, but not nearly as much as people might think. I did it based on time and found the classier the horses (and older) the better they distributed energy, but it was a small difference.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by cj

Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. ...

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

CJ,

Take a look at Turf Sprints. My stats indicate that they actually run early. Not as early as dirt races (and poly turfs are in the middle), but not so very late as turf routes.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

CJ,

Take a look at Turf Sprints. My stats indicate that they actually run early. Not as early as dirt races (and poly turfs are in the middle), but not so very late as turf routes.

The sample was pretty small for G1/G2 races. I don't doubt that changes some for lower class racing.

[jay68802]

My guess on dirt would be just a mirror image of turf.

[cj]

For the pace call on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 76th percentile
Median: 83rd percentile

Final fractions to come...

[storyline]

Originally Posted by cj

Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

I think track speed and pace have a direct correlation with any measurement of distribution of energy.

If the data for "dirt" included filtering by trackspeed (blue-red-neutral coding) my guess would be that the results would be more reliable...

[cj]

Originally Posted by storyline

I think track speed and pace have a direct correlation with any measurement of distribution of energy.

If the data for "dirt" included filtering by trackspeed (blue-red-neutral coding) my guess would be that the results would be more reliable...

Pace certainly would have an effect, but it probably isn't as big as many believe. Track speed I'm not so sure.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by cj

Pace certainly would have an effect, but it probably isn't as big as many believe. Track speed I'm not so sure.

Why not run it and find out, I'm assuming all energy measurements are calculated using adjusted times?

[cj]

Originally Posted by storyline

Why not run it and find out, I'm assuming all energy measurements are calculated using adjusted times?

Nope, just been using raw times for now. I also only started with G1/G2 stakes so the sample is pretty small to break up into subsets. My goal here was to see what the numbers say about the very best horses.

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

For the pace call on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 76th percentile
Median: 83rd percentile

Final fractions to come...

OK, this one REALLY surprised me.

For the last fraction on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 89percentile
Median: 100th percentile