12-06-2017
THERE ARE SEVERAL LINKS THAT NEED TO BE CONNECTED BEFORE THE CHAIN IS COMPLETE, ALLOWING FOR A PLAY
ONE IS THE FACTOR, GENERATED BY AN ANALYSIS OF THE WIN, PLACE, SHOW AND EXACTA POOLS.
THE OTHER IS THE FAVORITE ODDS
ALL ODDS DETERMINATIONS ARE BASED ON TOTE BOARD WIN ODDS AT 2 MIN TO POST OR LESS, AND PRIOR TO THE HORSES FULLY LOADED INTO THE GATE
I USE THE TWINSPIRES TOTE BOARD .
OVER A SHORT NUMBER OF RACES, ABOUT 150, SHORT ODDS FAVORITES, GENERALLY ODDS ON, ARE A PLAY WHEN THE FACTOR IS >=500. THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 1THE BEST BET SIZE FOR THIS PLAY IS A FLAT BET. FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES, THIS FLAT BET SIZE IS SET AT $1000.
WHEN THE FACTOR FOR THE FAVORITE IS >=400 AND <500, A BET IS FAVORABLE ON ALL HORSES RANK 3RD AND UP. THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 2THE BET SIZE FOR THIS PLAY IS BASED ON THE TOTE BOARD WIN POOL ODDS.
WHEN THE FACTOR IS >0 AND <500, AND FAVORITE PLUS 2ND CHOICE WIN PROBABILITY IS >=50%, AS DETERMINE BY THE WIN POOL ODDS, A BET IS FAVORABLE ON ALL HORSES RANK 3RD AND UP ODDS RANKED HORSES. THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 3R
WHEN THE BET SIZE TOTAL FOR PLAY 2 OR 3R IS LESS THAN 400 THE FAVORITE IS A PLAY
THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 4
THE BEST BET SIZE FOR THIS PLAY IS A FLAT BET. FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES, THIS FLAT BET SIZE IS SET AT $1000.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 12-06-2017 at 11:05 AM.
|