Horses to watch: Script.

[Jeff P]

Smarty Jones
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smarty_Jones

His original trainer, Bobby Camac was murdered in December, 2001.

On July 27, 2003 Smarty Jones suffered a fractured skull while being schooled at a starting gate.

Smarty Jones overcame his injuries after spending three weeks in the hospital and more than a month recuperating on the farm.

He returned to training in November, 2003 and won his debut at Philadelphia Park by some 7 3/4 lengths.

A good one can come from anywhere.

And sometimes they have to overcome adversity.


-jp

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[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by the little guy

That was the last male horse to do it. Winning Colors broke her maiden at Saratoga.

Actually, the last male to do it was Big Brown, but he broke his maiden on the grass.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by affirmedny

Actually, the last male to do it was Big Brown, but he broke his maiden on the grass.

Good call!

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by cj

Isn't this the kind of stuff that horse racing is all about, opinions? We'll see if the horse is any good soon enough and it will be fun to revisit no matter which of you is right. I don't think anyone needs to make it personal. This is what bettors do.

TLG makes it personal with people on this board all the time.
He starts in on them,not the other way around.......and he continues to take cheap shots at them as time goes on.
And that's a fact.
Not my problem if he's twisted.
Concerning my most recent post his direction,I was respectful in this thread to everybody(as I always am).......then TLG took it upon himself to say I wasn't sane........he made it personal.
So if I put up a post poking fun at him.......so be it.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by the little guy

But this is essentially what happens on message boards when someone posts an opinion with no real substance. Because they have nothing concrete to back up their opinion, they take personal shots at the person that displays the weakness of their argument. We have seen it more than a few times here.

I took his post for what it was...waving a white flag.

Your post is delusional.
From the top:
I posted an opinion,then stated valid reasons for my opinion......more then once in the thread.......that's a fact.
My opinion was "concrete".......and I explained my reasoning for it.
If you don't like my reasoning.........oh well.
I never took a personal shot at you until you said I wasn't sane........you started in......not me........that's your MO.
If you're going to cheap shot people, sometimes they're going to fire back at you.......that's the way it works.......if you don't like it......again....not my problem.
And your white flag comment makes zero sense........you might say it's not sane.

[classhandicapper]

I don't get this thread at all.

The OP gave an explanation for why he likes this horse. He's saying the trainer's profile is to give the horse some easy races early and then develop them later. He's seen enough from this one to think it will fit that profile.

Everyone on planet earth and even the inhabitants of several UAPs can see the horse hasn't run fast yet. There's no betting value in that information.

If there is any value, it's going to be in some ALW race or minor stake where the horse runs against horses that are 10 points faster and goes off 8-1. Then if his opinion is correct and the horse outruns his figures to date, he can cash a nice ticket.

It's simple. He's saying he thinks this horse is more likely to develop, move forward, and move forward by more, than the typical lightly raced horse from the typical barn. This is standard basic handicapping.

If anything, if I was trying to make a case in the opposite direction I might point out that the day he wired at AQU, inside speed certainly wasn't a disadvantage and may have been good.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't get this thread at all.

The OP gave an explanation for why he likes this horse. He's saying the trainer's profile is to give the horse some easy races early and then develop them later. He's seen enough from this one to think it will fit that profile.

Everyone on planet earth and even the inhabitants of several UAPs can see the horse hasn't run fast yet. There's no betting value in that information.

If there is any value, it's going to be in some ALW race or minor stake where the horse runs against horses that are 10 points faster and goes off 8-1. Then if his opinion is correct and the horse outruns his figures to date, he can cash a nice ticket.

It's simple. He's saying he thinks this horse is more likely to develop, move forward, and move forward by more, than the typical lightly raced horse from the typical barn. This is standard basic handicapping.

If anything, if I was trying to make a case in the opposite direction I might point out that the day he wired at AQU, inside speed certainly wasn't a disadvantage and may have been good.

Point/observation was legit.......Post #2 took it to the dark side

[1mileto7Fcutback]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't get this thread at all.

The OP gave an explanation for why he likes this horse. He's saying the trainer's profile is to give the horse some easy races early and then develop them later. He's seen enough from this one to think it will fit that profile.

Everyone on planet earth and even the inhabitants of several UAPs can see the horse hasn't run fast yet. There's no betting value in that information.

If there is any value, it's going to be in some ALW race or minor stake where the horse runs against horses that are 10 points faster and goes off 8-1. Then if his opinion is correct and the horse outruns his figures to date, he can cash a nice ticket.

It's simple. He's saying he thinks this horse is more likely to develop, move forward, and move forward by more, than the typical lightly raced horse from the typical barn. This is standard basic handicapping.

If anything, if I was trying to make a case in the opposite direction I might point out that the day he wired at AQU, inside speed certainly wasn't a disadvantage and may have been good.

Right....and some people disagree with that notion.

Of course there is betting value in knowing he ran slow. Slow horses take money all of the time. Especially slow horses from name barns.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by 1mileto7Fcutback

Right....and some people disagree with that notion.

Of course there is betting value in knowing he ran slow. Slow horses take money all of the time. Especially slow horses from name barns.

yo brother....

I don't think we should post back to back ...PA might have an issue with it...

I love this place

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by 1mileto7Fcutback

Right....and some people disagree with that notion.

Of course there is betting value in knowing he ran slow. Slow horses take money all of the time. Especially slow horses from name barns.

I hear you.

I'm not defending the horse. I have no special opinion on that. I think the OP's line of reasoning when applied to lightly raced horses is sound. The best scores of my life have been on slow lightly raced horses that I knew were more likely to jump up than the public understood because of the way the connections handle their horses. I wish those insights grew on trees, but they are like unicorns for me.

I'm OK with his post and I'm OK with someone saying he's slow so far.

However, I don't think there's much betting value in the "slow" part because everyone has figures. If he happens to be right about the horse, that could be another story.

Plus, I don't even know what he had in mind when he suggested this was a horse to watch. I don't think he meant "Derby" contender or other top stakes horse. I came away thinking he meant "better than he looks now and likely to run much better down the road".

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I hear you.

I'm not defending the horse. I have no special opinion on that. I think the OP's line of reasoning when applied to lightly raced horses is sound. The best scores of my life have been on slow lightly raced horses that I knew were more likely to jump up than the public understood because of the way the connections handle their horses. I wish those insights grew on trees, but they are like unicorns for me.

I'm OK with his post and I'm OK with someone saying he's slow so far.

However, I don't think there's much betting value in the "slow" part because everyone has figures. If he happens to be right about the horse, that could be another story.

Plus, I don't even know what he had in mind when he suggested this was a horse to watch. I don't think he meant "Derby" contender or other top stakes horse. I came away thinking he meant "better than he looks now and likely to run much better down the road".

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

yo brother....

I don't think we should post back to back ...PA might have an issue with it...

I love this place

makes sense to you

[classhandicapper]

Wednesday; PARX; Race #9; 3-1 ML

There are quite a few faster horses. So he'll have to step up.

[CheckMark]

I think we should start a thread with the title "Horses To Watch List" or something on that line

That way we have a running thread on what horses people should look out for in the future

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Wednesday; PARX; Race #9; 3-1 ML

There are quite a few faster horses. So he'll have to step up.

It's interesting because this is a huge field with a lot of speed. Parx usually tends wide/closers but lately speed/rail has been better (or at least fair). As far as Script, at 3-1 and with a huge battle for the lead coming up, hard to love him.

The Witty was very visually impressive the last two. If he works out a trip from that post, he gets the nod but it's pretty wide open. The two stakes could be the rare - double.