Today's Angle Play TAM R-4 (04-17-20)

[Partsnut]

Today's Angle Play TAM R-4 (04-17-20)

This particular angle, which does not come up too often was formulated from the past 2 years of data at specific Tracks and/or distance(s) and surface.

It has a 38% chance of winning and a 56% chance of placing.
The morning line on this horse is at 7-2 odds. I believe there may be a good possibility of some value here. Hopefully, the public will not bet this horse down. As with all horse racing, there are no guarantees.
Please see the attached File,

[jay68802]

Good luck.

Ran the race in my little system. Pay attention to the green columns. Near as I can tell is a solid contender.

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Good luck.

Ran the race in my little system. Pay attention to the green columns. Near as I can tell is a solid contender.

Thanks for your response.

You did a nice job on your spreadsheet.


Let's see how we do.

[jay68802]

10 min to Post Race #3:

Double odds with the favorite to the:

9/1

10/1

[jay68802]

Taking the double odds of 11 and 13/1.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS
RACE 3
DB
$15.00 6/6,10

[soflant]

I am sorry but I do not see the angle. Are you saying bet the horse if the morning line is 7-2 or the horse is going off at 7-2 at post time? Please advise..Thanks in advance.

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by soflant

I am sorry but I do not see the angle. Are you saying bet the horse if the morning line is 7-2 or the horse is going off at 7-2 at post time? Please advise..Thanks in advance.

For obvious reasons, I am not showing the factors I used to compile this angle.
I am verifying that the horse in question had a 38% chance of winning (8-5 odds). Depending on what odds you may require and if you bet win for value
anything over 8-5 might be considered an overlay. I personally would not accept less then 5-2 odds on this horse.

To make a long story short, I lost this win bet. The horse ran 4th and went off at 5-2.


Tomorrow, I will have another similar angle play. Hopefully, the odds on this one have some value and will win.
I play this game on the long term. You win some and you lose some.
Hopefully, I will remain profitable.

[jay68802]

Tomorrows angle will be like the that won this race.

Scratched out of more races than he ran in.

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Tomorrows angle will be like the that won this race.

Scratched out of more races than he ran in.

Hopefully not. My angle plays are based on specific factors compiled from a database going back and using two years of data that when combined together, exhibits a data meaningful win percentage and ROI.
These angles in the long term produce a profit.
They win enough times to put me on the plus side of the ledger.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

Hopefully not. My angle plays are based on specific factors compiled from a database going back and using two years of data that when combined together, exhibits a data meaningful win percentage and ROI.
These angles in the long term produce a profit.
They win enough times to put me on the plus side of the ledger.

I understand what you are doing, horses like the just chap my ass. Walking vet bill gets the win....