Is this Gold's Time?

[Teach]

“I believe it’s a good to have some gold,” my Uncle Joe told me when I was a young man. At the time I was too young to invest on my own. In fact, the first piece of gold I ever owned was my high-school ring (’60).

Yet, over the years, I have owned precious metals’ publicly-traded companies. I look at these purchases (stock trades) as “insurance policies”.

My most recent trade, among the many I’ve made over the last 25 years, was that of a “major” gold-producing company. I’d rank it in the top 4 or 5 in the world. I bought the stock right after Trump was elected in November, 2016. Since then, by far and large, it’s languished. “Dead money.” “Treading water.” Frustrating.

Yet, unlike other occasions when I bought “call” options, I didn’t have to deal with the time-element. Talk about frustration. I find that being on the short end of a call option is like being DQ’ed out of hefty tri or super. Ouch!

Yes, I’ve waited over two years for some action. And, it has finally come. Let me state that I’m not a tout. In fact, I’d feel more comfortable recommending a horse to you than a stock or stock group.

However, I feel the time has come for “liftoff”. I might mention that when gold takes off, it can be a parabolic rise (and sometimes a quick decline; you gotta catch it at its apex, that may be a short-lived period of time).

I mean, in my opinion, the signs (the charts) and trends are pointing toward an upward trajectory for gold. The commodity itself is approaching $1,300 an ounce. If we get through that, I can see $1,350 in 2019, and possibly beyond.

Yes, I personally believe the "gold-train" is leaving the station. Everyone is a free-agent; yet, in my opinion, the time is right to take a closer look at gold.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Teach

“I believe it’s a good to have some gold,” my Uncle Joe told me when I was a young man. At the time I was too young to invest on my own. In fact, the first piece of gold I ever owned was my high-school ring (’60).

Yet, over the years, I have owned precious metals’ publicly-traded companies. I look at these purchases (stock trades) as “insurance policies”.

My most recent trade, among the many I’ve made over the last 25 years, was that of a “major” gold-producing company. I’d rank it in the top 4 or 5 in the world. I bought the stock right after Trump was elected in November, 2016. Since then, by far and large, it’s languished. “Dead money.” “Treading water.” Frustrating.

Yet, unlike other occasions when I bought “call” options, I didn’t have to deal with the time-element. Talk about frustration. I find that being on the short end of a call option is like being DQ’ed out of hefty tri or super. Ouch!

Yes, I’ve waited over two years for some action. And, it has finally come. Let me state that I’m not a tout. In fact, I’d feel more comfortable recommending a horse to you than a stock or stock group.

However, I feel the time has come for “liftoff”. I might mention that when gold takes off, it can be a parabolic rise (and sometimes a quick decline; you gotta catch it at its apex, that may be a short-lived period of time).

I mean, in my opinion, the signs (the charts) and trends are pointing toward an upward trajectory for gold. The commodity itself is approaching $1,300 an ounce. If we get through that, I can see $1,350 in 2019, and possibly beyond.

Yes, I personally believe the "gold-train" is leaving the station. Everyone is a free-agent; yet, in my opinion, the time is right to take a closer look at gold.

nothing has changed with gold. it still needs to break $1380 to be in a bull run that brings us back to the top and then some. i agree with you though.

[Teach]

I’ve purchased gold and silver stocks for over the last 25 years. I’ve owned many of the majors and a handful of “juniors”. My most recent purchase was an ADR. I made that buy a little over two years ago when Donald Trump was elected president. I was thinking that his election might lead to “troubling” times. That didn’t, at least economically, materialize. As a result, I’m been sitting on the gold stock that I most recently bought for the past 2+ years. Finally, at last, I’m beginning to “turn the corner.” I’m back to even.

Further, I make this post because I believe that precious metals’ - gold, silver, etc. – time has come. One of the signs that has me feeling more optimistic than I’ve felt in years is that we’ve finally cleared the $1,300 per ounce level (I’m not sure, in the immediate days, gold can hang onto that level, but I do believe it won’t be long that gold will punch through $1,300 per ounce and head toward $1,400).

I do not consider myself an economics guru (one economics course in college), but I do, most definitely, see signs that gold has the potential to take off. If Friday’s exponential rise (that latent rise in gold surprised many investors) is any example, these could be very interesting times for “goldbugs”.

I should mention that now that I’m in my mid-70s, I stick to stocks. Years ago, I got involved with options. One of the gold options I played was the XAU. It’s a “basket” of gold and silver stocks. The one thing about options is that it provides you with a lot of leverage. On the flip side, if the option is “going against you,” there’s a time-clock, like the sword of Damocles, that’s ticking above your head. That can be nerve-wracking. Timing is everything in options. It is not for the faint o’ heart.

You may be asking, at this juncture, why has gold appeared to have taken off? Remember quantitative easing. The Fed, years ago, loosened the money spigot to avoid a recession. They flooded the market with liquidity. The stock market took off.

Not too long ago, the Fed began to reign in this flood of paper. There was a tightening. Now, there are media reports that indicate the Fed may cut back on their tightening policy. As a result, there are short-sellers in gold who are going to be forced to cover their positions. Conversely, there appears to be a definitive trend to “the long side”. That bodes well for the future price of gold.

Finally, there are so many internal and external factors that are “swarming” everywhere, e.g., the government shutdown (temporarily halted), the confusing state of affairs in Washington, D.C., China may be cutting back on buying up U.S. Government debt, the China tariff issue, Brexit, Venezuela (Putin supports the current government), North Korea’s nuclear designs, our perceived weakness among some members of the world community, etc. Frankly, the U.S. and the world, in general, are in a state of flux. That may not be good from a foreign affairs and domestic standpoint, but it does benefit the precious metals.

In conclusion, I write this post not in the interest of persuading you to make any investment; that’s your call. Yet, because I’ve been a poster on this board for over a decade, I like to try to alert its members to possible opportunities. Obviously, everyone is a free agent. Investing does carry inherent risks. However, I’m just posting a “heads up” based on my own personal experiences with gold and silver. I use my holdings as an “insurance policy”.