For a race where I dislike the favorite
, and have been waiting to bet against the 2nd choice
, this is still a tough task.
You've got the
all potentially hoping to leverage a mediocre effort and an inside post into a contending role...
You've got the closers
and the
, where in spite of the
's higher odds, the
has the edge in proven-recency, and in jockey. Their value is going to be equal at best, and the
is potentially a 'dud'.
The most interesting playable horse is the
Come on Gerry.
First question is the pace scenario, and whether he can survive the 1st turn...
3 outside speeds trying to cross over, and the
trying to break and dictate, and the
simply trying to dictate a pocket.
If
can break on top and get over next to the
(thus securing a decent path and forcing the
to work or be wide), or if the
has a yet unseen pressing/stalking dimension, he has a chance (and the talent) to contend at a big price. Neither of those two scenarios is high percentage.
I'm looking at a small multi-race to the singled
, and some light vertical exotics that use the
and/or
with friends, but not the
.
Prefer to either hit, or see the
win with fanfare.