Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[Buckeye]

American Pharoah was (according to me) the definition of smooth speed.

The horse was so smooth it was sick.

Justify was different as was Accelerate.

Accelerate exploded on this opponents while Justify first of all dared them to beat him.

[Bullet Plane]

TWO THINGS:

1) A race with the purse of the Pegasus should be 10f - standard distance for the Heavy weight champion division. A mile and 1/8 is for the little guys. nice prep distance for the sophomores prepping for the Derby. But, not for a purse this size. Ridiculous!!!

2) As a noted race analyst likes to say, this race of City of Light was "all dressed up". He is a speed horse on a race day highly favoring speed. Also, the only horse that could have gave him a run, was in the 12 post. Considering the short run to the turn in this race, he had to step on the gas big time to get to the rail before the turn. He was used up, with no opportunity to make City of Light really earn this race.

I just was not that impressed.

Hopefully, this race will be at 10f next year.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

TWO THINGS:

1) A race with the purse of the Pegasus should be 10f - standard distance for the Heavy weight champion division. A mile and 1/8 is for the little guys. nice prep distance for the sophomores prepping for the Derby. But, not for a purse this size. Ridiculous!!!

2) As a noted race analyst likes to say, this race of City of Light was "all dressed up". He is a speed horse on a race day highly favoring speed. Also, the only horse that could have gave him a run, was in the 12 post. Considering the short run to the turn in this race, he had to step on the gas big time to get to the rail before the turn. He was used up, with no opportunity to make City of Light really earn this race.

I just was not that impressed.

Hopefully, this race will be at 10f next year.

1) While it is a big purse race regardless, the listed purse is not real and the earnings reported are phony

2) I get the sentiment for 10f, but would they ever fill the gate at that distance. It has been a bit of a struggle the past few years at 9f and that is with a few miler types in both races. At 10f it would probably get really ugly.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

American Pharoah was (according to me) the definition of smooth speed.

The horse was so smooth it was sick.

Justify was different as was Accelerate.

Accelerate exploded on this opponents while Justify first of all dared them to beat him.

I like it. Great observation, though AP's "smooth speed" may have been dressed up a little because there were a number of times he wasn't challenged early. His KD was my favorite race. Didn't see the front end until the 3/16ths pole.

He was the definition of "best of the crop".

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

1) While it is a big purse race regardless, the listed purse is not real and the earnings reported are phony

2) I get the sentiment for 10f, but would they ever fill the gate at that distance. It has been a bit of a struggle the past few years at 9f and that is with a few miler types in both races. At 10f it would probably get really ugly.

To me the problem isn't 9 furlongs, it is the track configuration- 9 furlongs over a 9 furlong track with a short run into the turn.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

As Triple Crown winners go, Justify wasn't one of the more impressive ones, but I wouldn't hold his speed figures against him too much.

1. A few of his races had fast paces that no doubt impacted his figure and helped bottom out some of the horses chasing him.

2. The figures for Triple Crown horses have been declining in recent years. There may be a few reasons for that, but I think the Beyer team made a logical case that the horses are so much more lightly raced and unseasoned now, they develop later. (Of course if that's true it argues that giving horses more races at 2 and 3 to develop them quicker might be a better strategy). Justify was VERY lightly raced and probably had a lot of improving to do (just like American Pharoah)

As older horses go, Accelerate had a monster year. He was 6 for 7 with 5 Grade 1s in some of the biggest races of the entire year. His only loss was a big effort against City of Light who is now also a BC Winner.

SA Handicap
SA Gold Cup
Pacific Classic
Awesome Again
Breeder's Cup Classic

I don't think this was the best crop of older horses, but it was still a huge year for him.

In most years Accelerate would be a no brainer for HOTY, but I think a Triple Crown winner almost has to get it.

Beyer gives his opinion on Triple Crown speed figures

https://www.drf.com/top-news/ask-bey...decline-458776

[rastajenk]

That makes a lot of sense. And then these lightly raced stars-of-the-future get retired before they can put up some really solid numbers.

[burnsy]

Yup really deserved it, 6 starts. No rules about starts or longevity, stamina. The horse that won all year gets the shaft. Did you hear? Joe Blow won the batting title, batted .800, he was 8 for 10........

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Yup really deserved it, 6 starts. No rules about starts or longevity, stamina. The horse that won all year gets the shaft. Did you hear? Joe Blow won the batting title, batted .800, he was 8 for 10........

How does 6 starts compare with other horses who have won the award the past decade?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Yup really deserved it, 6 starts. No rules about starts or longevity, stamina. The horse that won all year gets the shaft. Did you hear? Joe Blow won the batting title, batted .800, he was 8 for 10........

That's quite an analogy John.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Yup really deserved it, 6 starts. No rules about starts or longevity, stamina. The horse that won all year gets the shaft. Did you hear? Joe Blow won the batting title, batted .800, he was 8 for 10........

Well, were 3 of the 8 hits in the WORLD SERIES?

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Tom

Well, were 3 of the 8 hits in the WORLD SERIES?

And they were game winning home runs.

All hits are not created equal.

Justify did enough to win HOTY.

Allan

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Yup really deserved it, 6 starts. No rules about starts or longevity, stamina. The horse that won all year gets the shaft.

Starts: The "horse that won all year" made 7 starts.

Longevity: The "horse that won all year" was a second-tier horse at 3 and 4 but hung around long enough for all the heavyweights in his division (Gun Runner, Arrogate, Collected, West Coast) to fall by the wayside before ascending to the top.

Stamina: The "horse that won all year" never tried 12 furlongs.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Starts: The "horse that won all year" made 7 starts.

Longevity: The "horse that won all year" was a second-tier horse at 3 and 4 but hung around long enough for all the heavyweights in his division (Gun Runner, Arrogate, Collected, West Coast) to fall by the wayside before ascending to the top.

Stamina: The "horse that won all year" never tried 12 furlongs.

It's funny you mention Arrogate. You know what Accelerate's record was against him?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

It's funny you mention Arrogate. You know what Accelerate's record was against him?

Yep.

After their common debut, Sadler decided to take the hard road with Accelerate, running him in 3 more maiden special weights before shooting for the moon in a listed stakes at Del Mar the same weekend Arrogate won the Travers in a track record performance.