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Old 09-20-2018, 03:31 PM   #31
jay68802
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike View Post
I certainly appreciate your skepticism, but let's give him a chance to prove out his method with a real-world example.
I find what he is saying very interesting.
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Old 09-20-2018, 03:37 PM   #32
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They were all made before and after each race each day; my post (#4 of this thread) explains the science in a formula. This is done in most industries that require an evaluation of force and motion.

Is there merit to having the horse’s weight?

Yes, there is; the calculation of the horse’s energy = 1/2M*V^2 and can easily be calculated.

Also, the horse’s power and velocity can use the conversion of weight to mass in those calculations.
Wait a minute. If you are talking about the conversion of mass to energy the formula is E =MC (squared), where E equals energy produced, M equals mass (in grams)and C is the speed of light squared. That means that the tiniest amount of mass would convert to nuclear proportions of energy. That's the formula for the energy produced by the atomic bomb. I doubt it would be of any value here unless you're thinking of blowing up the track.
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Old 09-20-2018, 03:59 PM   #33
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Wait a minute. If you are talking about the conversion of mass to energy the formula is E =MC (squared), where E equals energy produced, M equals mass (in grams)and C is the speed of light squared. That means that the tiniest amount of mass would convert to nuclear proportions of energy. That's the formula for the energy produced by the atomic bomb. I doubt it would be of any value here unless you're thinking of blowing up the track.
Wait, I think I see. I'm misunderstanding you. The formula of 1/2 MV (squared) is not for the conversion of mass to energy. I think it has something to do with the energy produced by the movement of mass at a given velocity or speed.
Let me refer to my Physics texts to see just what that formula means.
Ah,here it is. That formula is for kinetic energy - the energy produced by matter in motion.
I believe that's what you meant to say.

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Old 09-20-2018, 04:16 PM   #34
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Wait, I think I see. I'm misunderstanding you. The formula of 1/2 MV (squared) is not for the conversion of mass to energy. I think it has something to do with the energy produced by the movement of mass at a given velocity or speed.
Let me refer to my Physics texts to see just what that formula means.
Ah,here it is. That formula is for kinetic energy - the energy produced by matter in motion.
I believe that's what you meant to say.
Since potential energy is equal to kinetic energy. You're talking about the potential energy - which must be the energy stored in a horses' muscles that can be calculated from kinetic energy - the energy produced from mass in motion. and vice - versa. You were leaving out some key components such as kinetic and potential energies.
Now that would make sense as a simplified explanation of what you're doing. Am I correct in my understanding?

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Old 09-20-2018, 04:29 PM   #35
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This is interesting. Would you please post an example from Remington Park - turn theory into reality for us (as the track provides weights)? Thanks.
Based on historical records, I make that 8 to 5 against that ever happening.
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Old 09-20-2018, 04:30 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Since potential energy is equal to kinetic energy. You're talking about the potential energy - which must be the energy stored in a horses' muscles that can be calculated from kinetic energy - the energy produced from mass in motion. and vice - versa. You were leaving out some key components such as kinetic and potential energies.
Now that would make sense as a simplified explanation of what you're doing. Am I correct in my understanding?
Could you please show how to calculate force without knowing mass, using a race example? Also, I understand how to calculate acceleration, but I don't understand what part/all of the race to use?
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Old 09-20-2018, 04:57 PM   #37
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Could you please show how to calculate force without knowing mass, using a race example? Also, I understand how to calculate acceleration, but I don't understand what part/all of the race to use?
I'm kinda rusty since it's been years since Ii studied and tutored Physics but I remember that Force = Mass x Acceleration, so you would need that. I'll have to see how force can be derived without knowing mass. It may be sufficient to just go with an average horses' mass since the change in mass is small and velocity is more important anyway. Maybe there is some relationship with kinetic energy. I'm wondering that since kinetic energy = the mass x velocity squared, the velocity is much more important than mass since it's effect is squared. I remember it's application to sports in showing how the speed (velocity) of a football player is more important than his mass when he tackles you, Similarly, in boxing the speed of a punch is more important than the mass of the fist that hits you.
I just had an idea how the Sartin Methodology uses some sense of kinetic energy when he talks of % energy used early based on velocity. Hmmm.
At this point I'm just thinking out loud theoretically but I'd like to figure out how these concepts can be applied in practice to handicapping. Let me think about this some more.
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Old 09-20-2018, 05:55 PM   #38
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Most people don't say "kinetic energy"; they just say the energy expenditure, but you can continue review textbooks to dispute a simple application.

I will post what was asked and not go back to review concepts what I know is correct; I am being neither cynical nor insulting to you when I say the effort would be a waste of time.

The poster wanted to an example from Remington Park, a racetrack that is not in our model, but searching the Internet I think I have all of the necessary info to manually load the model for a Remington Park horse estimate.

Let me understand, if f=ma and you wanted to know "f" and not use "m", what you have left is "a". Also, motion occurs with "net force"; otherwise the forces are "in balance" and motion doesn't occur.
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Last edited by Cratos; 09-20-2018 at 06:04 PM.
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:27 PM   #39
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Most people don't say "kinetic energy"; they just say the energy expenditure, but you can continue review textbooks to dispute a simple application.

I will post what was asked and not go back to review concepts what I know is correct; I am being neither cynical nor insulting to you when I say the effort would be a waste of time.

The poster wanted to an example from Remington Park, a racetrack that is not in our model, but searching the Internet I think I have all of the necessary info to manually load the model for a Remington Park horse estimate.

Let me understand, if f=ma and you wanted to know "f" and not use "m", what you have left is "a". Also, motion occurs with "net force"; otherwise the forces are "in balance" and motion doesn't occur.
Any track will do AFAIC
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:32 PM   #40
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Any track will do AFAIC
Let's use RP -- that's where we actually know what the horses weigh pre-race. The exercise is of no value, in my opinion, if we can't compare his estimate of the horse's weight to the actual weight of the horse (within a few pounds).
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:35 PM   #41
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Let's use RP -- that's where we actually know what the horses weigh pre-race. The exercise is of no value, in my opinion, if we can't compare his estimate of the horse's weight to the actual weight of the horse (within a few pounds).
You're right in that respect.

I suppose in the interest of time for Cratos to reply, I was leaping ahead.
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:45 PM   #42
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Let's use RP -- that's where we actually know what the horses weigh pre-race. The exercise is of no value, in my opinion, if we can't compare his estimate of the horse's weight to the actual weight of the horse (within a few pounds).
Thinking some more...

Let's define "pre-race."

Horse races on September 1. Let's say he comes out of the race OK and goes to the barn. You now have a running line for him in the PPs.

Horse is now entered for September 20. He's been fed, groomed, exercised, walked, jogged, medicated for 19 days.

Where within that span is the pre-race weight for the September 20 race calculated?

What if the layoff was 7 days? 30 days?
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:49 PM   #43
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I would assume the weight would be taken once the horse was entered for a race., so a few days tops.

Anyone familiar with how RP does it?

ADDED....

Found this from Bloodhorse 2015 talking about RP getting ready to implement weights.

Quote:
The procedure is quite simple: horses will report to the receiving barn prior to the race at a uniform time, have their weight recorded via a ground-level scale, and those numbers will be reported on the simulcast feed before the race.
And this a year later.

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Every horse at Remington will be weighed on its way to the saddling paddock. The horses will step onto a scale in the pre-race barn before being led to the paddock; the weights will be displayed on the Remington simulcast feed during the post parade for each race.
Looks like you will need to keep your own records of past weights.
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Last edited by Tom; 09-20-2018 at 06:57 PM.
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:52 PM   #44
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I would assume the weight would be taken once the horse was entered for a race., so a few days tops.

Anyone familiar with how RP does it?
From an article in Bloodhorse:
"Every horse at Remington will be weighed on its way to the saddling paddock. The horses will step onto a scale in the pre-race barn before being led to the paddock; the weights will be displayed on the Remington simulcast feed during the post parade for each race."

I am more wondering about the weight estimate garnered by using PP/chart data and physics.
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Old 09-20-2018, 07:28 PM   #45
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From an article in Bloodhorse:
"Every horse at Remington will be weighed on its way to the saddling paddock. The horses will step onto a scale in the pre-race barn before being led to the paddock; the weights will be displayed on the Remington simulcast feed during the post parade for each race."

I am more wondering about the weight estimate garnered by using PP/chart data and physics.
That's why this is a great exercise. RP is the only track in the US (I think) where we know the actual pre-race weights.
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