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Old 02-16-2019, 09:47 AM   #5356
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Straight up speed capping at the speediest track north of Tijuana --- -Sunland

The last two races were Qtrs--for some reason:

SUNLAND

2ND--SHOE GAME 10-1

DUBLIN'S WILDBERRY 8-1

4TH-- POINT GETTER 7-2

5TH--REINING PESOS 3-1



'luck

-NCG

That's the way they roll at Sunland, Friday all QH, Sat-last 2 QH, Sunday and Tuesday- all TB
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Old 02-17-2019, 02:29 AM   #5357
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While looking at charts something at OPX caught my eye:

I have an angle I call "Claimed For Nothing". Horses are usually claimed when they're obviously dominant in today's race--and claiming owner/trainers have grandeurs of easy purses compliments of the previous trainer's work with the claimer.

Anyway...I find it unusual when a 15 or 25 to 1 longshot is claimed. I have to think someone knows something--info they got from SOMEONE or SOMEWHERE that this horse is better than he appears. Whatever---someone put down some cash money for this horse....for a good reason.

So getting to my point--I noticed on Feb 14th @ OPX, a horse named YES I SEE was claimed. This horse went off at over 17-1. I look up his pp's...he's looked terrible lately. Couple races back he ran in a stakes race (today was a 16K claimer) --and predictably got his @$$ handed to him that day.
His next race shows a familiar running-line pattern--he started off 6th--ran hell-bent passing horses--then falls back and finishes were he started--6th place.

I check his previous race's chart--not much there, but I did happen to notice M-M Stable-owners/R Diodoro-trainer...had a horse entered that day, same race as Yes I See.

It just happens they were the claimers of 17-1 Yes I See. They must have gotten some info in the previous race--that's all I can think of. They didn't decide to drop a 16K claim ticket on a whim.

**Will be interesting to see where YES I SEE appears next. I'll give him 2 races.


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Old 02-17-2019, 01:22 PM   #5358
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That looks like a good angle
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Old 02-18-2019, 10:56 AM   #5359
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I read some time ago any horse claimed that went off at 10/1 or more is worth
checking the next two times out
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Old 02-18-2019, 08:27 PM   #5360
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Looking a little closer:


Yes I See has a lifetime career earnings per start of $5066, that's impressive.


He earned $27,400 last year in only 5 starts better than most at his level.


Won 11 races



Not a jump off the page claim but if you look a little closer it's not unreasonable. I would look for them to take this horse to an easier track when the meets over and he would have an easy time there. TUP? my guess.










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Old 02-18-2019, 08:39 PM   #5361
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distance

And they will probably run at 7-7 1/2 furlongs the real angle to the claim is moving him up in class
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Old 02-19-2019, 01:18 AM   #5362
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And they will probably run at 7-7 1/2 furlongs the real angle to the claim is moving him up in class
YES I SEE manged only 5 races in 2018--is 8 yrs old...appears to be entered above his current class purse-wise. What is unusual is his recent entry in a Gr-3 race, and his last start was a 6F sprint.

Yes he's won some money in his career, but he wasn't claimed for historical results--his recent condition looks poor. That's why he went off @ 17-1. The claim at THIS point in his career is the entire angle. Since you or I aren't privy to any inside info, all we can do is guess. I would love to see this horse raised in class, since Diodoro doesn't seem to "throw away" races often, in pursuit of higher mutuels.

He's also been known to claim a horse...realize perhaps he overestimated his claim--and drop him down 2 levels, first start after claim.

And seemingly DARE anyone to drop a ticket. They never do

And the horse goes on to win for fun.
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Old 02-19-2019, 03:06 AM   #5363
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Money Management

.
Sooooo....you aren't winning at the races, huh? What you need to do, is structure your wagers using a 100 yr old wagering method.



.
Everytime I read this, I laugh: "THIS PROGRESSION CONTINUES UNTIL YOU WIN--OR YOUR BANKROLL IS GONE":

OMG that's funny. This was included in some stuff someone sent me--it was attached to a method, he wouldn't have sent this if it wasn't. I like looking at old paper/pencil methods--some are really clever...and some are just junk.

I would guess this is from the 80's--we horse players were buying crap like this during the "Golden Age" of mail-order systems.
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Old 02-19-2019, 07:14 AM   #5364
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Looking at pp's, I've noticed something--it's not a revelation to anyone. What I've noticed is what seems like often--the winning horse will have been, in one of his last two races--within 1 length of the lead (or led) at the stretch call.

Ideally, you would want this to occur 2 races back--and the horse tank his last race, for possibly a better price. The only "rules" so far--this "up-close stretch call" must have occurred at today's class or higher....and within his last two races.

If it shows 2 races back...it doesn't matter what he did last race--where he finished, or what class. If you have more than one qualifier--take the horse that qualified @ the highest class level

I went ahead and used this selection method @ Parx today. We'll see what happens.

PARX 2/19

1ST--BROWN ESSENCE 5-2
2ND--LA CAMEDOR 3-1
3RD--SHE'S RUNNING FREE 10-1
6TH--GENERAL BELLAMY 5-2
7TH--CAPTAIN SAM 7-2
8TH--FOUR FREEDOMS 4-1
9TH--AMANDASROMEO 10-1
10TH-TERQUITO 3-1
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Old 02-19-2019, 12:44 PM   #5365
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YES I SEE manged only 5 races in 2018--is 8 yrs old...appears to be entered above his current class purse-wise. What is unusual is his recent entry in a Gr-3 race, and his last start was a 6F sprint.

Yes he's won some money in his career, but he wasn't claimed for historical results--his recent condition looks poor. That's why he went off @ 17-1. The claim at THIS point in his career is the entire angle. Since you or I aren't privy to any inside info, all we can do is guess. I would love to see this horse raised in class, since Diodoro doesn't seem to "throw away" races often, in pursuit of higher mutuels.

He's also been known to claim a horse...realize perhaps he overestimated his claim--and drop him down 2 levels, first start after claim.

And seemingly DARE anyone to drop a ticket. They never do

And the horse goes on to win for fun.



Very few people drop $15000 to claim a horse without any inside knowledge, especially one with a poor recent form. Somebody thinks that they know something. A $4000-5000 claimer with good form, maybe, but 15k, I doubt it.
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:35 AM   #5366
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TAMPA
HIGH CLASS from Platinum
9TH--BOURBON ENDOWMENT 5/2
BEST BETS--from Platinum
2nd--FUN & GAMES 5-1
6TH-- BELTWAY 4-1
8TH--CHANCETHE RACES 5-2
9TH--BOURBON ENWMENT 5-2
BEST-FIVE--Prime Trainer/Jockey
3RD--DISTORTED AT THE BAR 6/5
6TH-- SIR COWBOY 8/5
7TH--FREEDOM HILL 2-1
PONY PICKER EASY WINS
4TH--ANIMUSH 3-1
8TH--LAVISH 3-1

CLASS-SPEED
4TH--FRIEND ZONE 8-1
6TH--THE BEST CANDY 20-1
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:40 AM   #5367
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TAMPA
HIGH CLASS from Platinum
9TH--BOURBON ENDOWMENT 5/2
BEST BETS--from Platinum
2nd--FUN & GAMES 5-1
6TH-- BELTWAY 4-1
8TH--CHANCETHE RACES 5-2
9TH--BOURBON ENDOWMENT 5-2
BEST-FIVE--Prime Trainer/Jockey
3RD--DISTORTED AT THE BAR 6/5
6TH-- SIR COWBOY 8/5
7TH--FREEDOM HILL 2-1
PONY PICKER EASY WINS
4TH--ANIMUSH 3-1
8TH--LAVISH 3-1

CLASS-SPEED
4TH--FRIEND ZONE 8-1
6TH--THE BEST CANDY 20-1


....all Tampa best bets, best connections, easy winners plus you get my 2 best price horse thrown in free of charge.

good luck,

-NCG
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:20 PM   #5368
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Windows did one of their updates last night--my comp is all f'd up now. I tried to post early this AM--the thing just spinned and spinned. I logged out--came back in--same thing. Finally said the heck with it.

Now I see it posted both attempts--so I got two of the same posts. So you got to see my $47.00 winner BEST CANDYtwice.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Moving on...I swear BEST-FIVE owns certain tracks...Turf Paradise is one of them. Tampa's another. SA and AQ are decent. Turfway Park? Gawd no, don't even look there--or Delta, Lone Star, Arlington or Ellis. These little tracks, like Riilito, Arapaho, and a little track called Sun-Ray, I think. Like taking candy from a baby at those tracks. I happened to read a review from Yelp or somewhere--about Sun-Ray or Riodoso or somewhere down there. They said they ordered the chili...the reviewer said they don't even prepare it, he could see the big cans of Nalley's Chili in the back. Even so--he said they couldn't even get that right . I never went to the track for the food--but I did keep the bartender busy.
To keep my bar-tab manageable, I used to bring a pint of Bacardi in my jacket pocket...buy a large pepsi on the way in...pour out half and fill it up with the rum. Put the top back on the Pepsi--put the straw in--and head to the grandstand.

Anyway...my point is--if you had just used the top 2 BEST-FIVE from the Consensus--you would have hit the pick-6
today (as well as others during this meet.)

A 20cent pick-6 ticket using two per race--is $12.80. Of course you would have also had the Pick-5, 4,3, double-but who plays all that?

You got 10 units back today (min unit is $12.80)--you may hit another right away--or maybe not. It is fun, though.

.

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-20-2019 at 09:22 PM.
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Old 02-22-2019, 07:40 AM   #5369
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TAMPA FRI SPOT PLAY REPORT

.


*ps ..there is a spot play called "Point Play" and another called "Pace Play" --they are both listed on the Acronym Sheet as "PP"
Real smart--point play is pretty good--pace power is kind of blah.

I checked--all the PP's listed today are Pace Power

pss: This isn't from any program that's for sale--since it's not completed--and probably never will. It's called "Speed Demons"

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-22-2019 at 07:45 AM.
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Old 02-25-2019, 07:44 AM   #5370
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Interesting horse running in the 8th @ PARX today:

KINGSLAYER 20-1

What's interesting is he's been claimed a couple times recently--looking at what he's done lately, you gotta wonder why?

Now...here's where it gets crazy. Kingslayer will be running in his 3rd race in 3 weeks today. Doesn't show many works--but why would he? He had a 90-day layoff end of last year, and took all of Jan this year off.

His new trainer that claimed him last out, is one of those 3-for-50 trainers.
Normally that would be the end of my interest in Kingslayer--except for one thing.

His hapless trainer shows a decent win% and big ROI nowhere-- but "1ST RACE AFTER A CLAIM".

I'll put a few ducats down on the King today at Parx.

Good Luck,

-NCG
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