Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-16-2018, 11:55 AM   #166
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Latest which includes all the prep races:





As always, thanks for the update.

Helping me get used to TimeformUS and learn how to use the pace figures.


Was interested to see what you guys had for Magnum Moon's Bluegrass. Looks like a moderate-to-slow pace. A little slower paced, and a little slower final time than most top derby preps. Not quite an auto-toss, but worth considering the pace figures when handicapping this guy.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 04-16-2018 at 11:57 AM.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-16-2018, 08:41 PM   #167
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Well if you want to know who can win the fall apart race with a fast pace its My Boy Jack, done it twice now.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-16-2018, 08:44 PM   #168
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
As always, thanks for the update.

Helping me get used to TimeformUS and learn how to use the pace figures.


Was interested to see what you guys had for Magnum Moon's Bluegrass. Looks like a moderate-to-slow pace. A little slower paced, and a little slower final time than most top derby preps. Not quite an auto-toss, but worth considering the pace figures when handicapping this guy.
Its also worth noting that while its very easy to discount closers who won off fall apart race it does tell you that when there is a fast pace they can finish.

I often see horses who closed off average paces do little with fast paces. I chalk this up to they had to be used more to stay within contact of the leaders and thus did not have the same punch as they did with an average, or even sometimes slow pace.

While I almost auto discount fall apart closer winners next out due to price in the case of the Derby I would not. Vinno Rosso and My Boy Jack would come to mind.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-16-2018, 09:34 PM   #169
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Its also worth noting that while its very easy to discount closers who won off fall apart race it does tell you that when there is a fast pace they can finish.

I often see horses who closed off average paces do little with fast paces. I chalk this up to they had to be used more to stay within contact of the leaders and thus did not have the same punch as they did with an average, or even sometimes slow pace.

While I almost auto discount fall apart closer winners next out due to price in the case of the Derby I would not. Vinno Rosso and My Boy Jack would come to mind.
This is such a great point and one I always like to point out when evaluating closers. Many players do not get the implications. Many dismiss closers who win when the pace in front of them is fast. But lesser closers would get stranded by the fast pace. The ability to finish fast vs fast is the only thing that matters. I talked about this til I was blue in the face last year and folks weren't getting it. Good to see your post here GMB.
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-17-2018, 12:48 AM   #170
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Always have to have a comprehensive understanding of the horse, and an opinion about how today's race projects.

'auto-toss' is a tough game to play with proven stakes horses. If I'm auto-tossing a dream pace setup horse, it has to do with value. I know in my gut that he's still capable of beating me, but I feel the public is betting him based on his best-case-scenario.
I'm also generally harder on Early types who scored on a slow pace, than I am on closers. Again, some of this comes back to price, some has to do with the dynamics mentioned in this thread by you and Cincy (fast early fast late).


some random personal thoughts on some of the extreme paced TimeformUS races

Arkansas Derby= Magnum Moon- ran fine. Stylish, good looking colt. I just don't feel he proved to me that he's a top-tier colt yet. Nothing really negative from the effort.
Quip- Was less impressed with Quip. His Tampa and his Arkansas Derby were both really soft up front. Even his allowance was a soft paced race. Faced a fast pace in the KYJC and didn't do much. Unfortunately he won't take enough money to really gain an edge by tossing.
Solomini- Had a wide trip and had to close against the slow pace. He didn't change leads which is his own fault but there's room for improvement from the pace and the footwork.

Florida Derby= Audible's Florida Derby set up great for him, but the Holy Bull was a soft pace and he was just as impressive. I'm more inclined to distrust Hofburg(even though I picked him as a key in that race) because he simply followed Audible's great setup and doesn't have a race like the Holy Bull in his resume to look back on. Promises Fulfilled- Gets another chance due to the first turn, but have a feeling he's not the 2nd coming of Shackleford.

Wood= Vino Rosso had a great setup, but he ran legitimately well, and he was an odd case of a distance loving grinder, whose had all very slow paced races until the Wood. I still don't know if he's more than a very good grinder, but even if that's the case he'll be passing horses.
Enticed had a little worse trip, and you can't rule out that it cost him a couple lengths. May be some trip-capping value in Enticed, if you actually like him.

My Boy Jack = great mud ride in the Southwest, good setups in La Derby and Lexington. But you know he's a quality horse that has been trained-up to close and pick up pieces. You know the jockey and the horse have a special relationship. The more adversity, weather, etc... that hits the fan, this triple crown journey - the more Kent and Jack are going to be capitalizing. And you will get a square price. There's nothing smart about auto-tossing a good price because of an angle.
To be honest, I'm not specifically high on the horse, but it wouldn't surprise me either way if he ran 2nd or ran 12th or anywhere in between.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2018, 11:46 AM   #171
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
You guys do a 'Pace Projector' yet?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2018, 01:13 PM   #172
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
You guys do a 'Pace Projector' yet?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-07-2018, 11:29 PM   #173
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Plenty of new stuff added today:

https://timeformusblog.com/2018/01/2...-triple-crown/
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2018, 11:38 PM   #174
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 07:15 PM   #175
sammy the sage
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
You're slacking...need the Peter Pan...as that horse will run in the Belmont...always used a prep...
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
sammy the sage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 12:52 AM   #176
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
You're slacking...need the Peter Pan...as that horse will run in the Belmont...always used a prep...
Not going to add it to the sheet since it isn't a Derby points race or TC race, but here is the chart of the race with figures:

cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 01:03 AM   #177
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Not going to add it to the sheet since it isn't a Derby points race or TC race, but here is the chart of the race with figures:

In the TUS charts, and this image, is weight factored in. I know it is in the spreadsheet.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 01:35 AM   #178
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
In the TUS charts, and this image, is weight factored in. I know it is in the spreadsheet.
No, and not in the spreadsheet either.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 07:06 AM   #179
sammy the sage
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Not going to add it to the sheet since it isn't a Derby points race or TC race, but here is the chart of the race with figures:

Thanks for posting....thought it was included in previous years as all...but those years have been deleted...guessing cause they had proprietary iinfo...or I'm going senile...

thanks again.
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
sammy the sage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 11:25 AM   #180
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
No, and not in the spreadsheet either.
So with weight factored in the 128 would go up if he was to carry less? Not sure how this actually works.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:51 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.