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02-03-2023, 11:28 AM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upthecreek
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2 high IQ approaches ( that i know of offhand )
1. Likes to relax in the evening and treat a big upcoming race as a 'puzzle'. Maybe does one or two things like watch some replays or favorite method (30min-hrmax).
Enjoys the mental stimulation, places inconsequential wager day of race, pleased w/ experience win/lose/draw.
2. Serious approach, knows the craft.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-04-2023, 06:43 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
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I wonder why these high IQ horseplayers are avoiding the betting establishments that I frequent...
__________________
Live to play another day.
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02-04-2023, 07:15 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wonder why these high IQ horseplayers are avoiding the betting establishments that I frequent...
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Good one, Thaskalos.
They are probably wondering the same thing.
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02-04-2023, 07:22 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wonder why these high IQ horseplayers are avoiding the betting establishments that I frequent...
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Because we all play from home????
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02-04-2023, 11:39 PM
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#6
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wonder why these high IQ horseplayers are avoiding the betting establishments that I frequent...
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For the same reason that you avoid your bookie.... 
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02-05-2023, 09:49 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
For the same reason that you avoid your bookie.... |
Happy to see you back, ReplayRandall!
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02-05-2023, 03:41 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
For the same reason that you avoid your bookie.... |
My bookie and I have a great relationship. He sends me get-well cards on a regular basis. 🙂
__________________
Live to play another day.
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02-09-2023, 04:06 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 2,053
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I'd like to see a study taken if having a Lobotomy can cure losing 70-80% of photo finishes, inquiries and objections. Might be worth the risk.
RR
__________________
Jackpot Pick 6 bets will soon be as popular as Buggy Whips and Dial-up Internet.
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02-09-2023, 04:41 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rrpic6
I'd like to see a study taken if having a Lobotomy can cure losing 70-80% of photo finishes, inquiries and objections. Might be worth the risk.
RR
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The lobotomy doesn't cure you from losing them, but it does cure you from remembering them...
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02-09-2023, 08:12 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
For the same reason that you avoid your bookie.... |
Hey! Good to see you back.
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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02-10-2023, 01:22 PM
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#12
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,288
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NOT in the traditional way.
I know of several people who would surprise the heck out of the rest of us who do well continually...THEY ARE IN THE MINORITY
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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02-16-2023, 01:58 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rrpic6
I'd like to see a study taken if having a Lobotomy can cure losing 70-80% of photo finishes, inquiries and objections. Might be worth the risk.
RR
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Hey, dude. Not much time to play this winter. Getting new house built has been all consuming. Meant to visit (for first time in several years) and hang with ancient pals, Terry and Chuck, seeming less likely now.
Dinoto in strong contention for big HISA job. True power-house whose rise, mark my words, is inevitable.
Hope you are cashing.
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02-16-2023, 04:49 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 2,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Hey, dude. Not much time to play this winter. Getting new house built has been all consuming. Meant to visit (for first time in several years) and hang with ancient pals, Terry and Chuck, seeming less likely now.
Dinoto in strong contention for big HISA job. True power-house whose rise, mark my words, is inevitable.
Hope you are cashing.
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I'm out of the loop my myself Mark. I occasionally visit MVR, haven't worked there in almost 2 years. I might even bow out of my Keeneland gig this year, as I'm living in Lorain and working for Caesar's Sportsbook in Cleveland now. I do try and catch MVR on my PC a day or 2 a week. Stay healthy!
RR
__________________
Jackpot Pick 6 bets will soon be as popular as Buggy Whips and Dial-up Internet.
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02-17-2023, 07:38 AM
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#15
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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i've got my mahoning watch-list up to date for all of '23
haha
lol I can sort of see if random people were made to choose from slots or horses, intelligence would probably correlate a little to prefering horses.
If I get a $20 (or whatever) sign-up card and try the slots, I find the machines absolutely boring. I know plenty of people who absolutely love the slots.
but this game is hard on people and the simulcast peasant room is more akin to a mental ward than a mensa meeting  
is Charlie Munger 'our guy'?
"Any damn fool can see that a horse carrying a light weight with a wonderful win rate and a good post position etc., etc. is way more likely to win than a horse with a terrible record and extra weight and so on and so on. But if you look at the odds, the bad horse pays 100 to 1, whereas the good horse pays 3 to 2. Then it’s not clear which is statistically the best bet using the mathematics of Fermat and Pascal. The prices have changed in such a way that it’s very hard to beat the system.
And then the track is taking 17% off the top. So not only do you have to outwit all the other betters, but you’ve got to outwit them by such a big margin that on average, you can afford to take 17% of your gross bets off the top and give it to the house before the rest of your money can be put to work. Given those mathematics, is it possible to beat the horses only using one’s intelligence? Intelligence should give some edge, because lots of people who don’t know anything go out and bet lucky numbers and so forth. Therefore, somebody who really thinks about nothing but horse performance and is shrewd and mathematical could have a very considerable edge, in the absence of the frictional cost caused by the house take. Unfortunately, what a shrewd horseplayer’s edge does in most cases is to reduce his average loss over a season of betting from the 17% that he would lose if he got the average result to maybe 10%. However, there are actually a few people who can beat the game after paying the full 17%.
I used to play poker when I was young with a guy who made a substantial living doing nothing but bet harness races…. Now, harness racing is a relatively inefficient market. You don’t have the depth of intelligence betting on harness races that you do on regular races. What my poker pal would do was to think about harness races as his main profession. And he would bet only occasionally when he saw some mispriced bet available. And by doing that, after paying the full handle to the house—which I presume was around 17%—he made a substantial living. You have to say that’s rare. However, the market was not perfectly efficient. And if it weren’t for that big 17% handle, lots of people would regularly be beating lots of other people at the horse races. It’s efficient, yes. But it’s not perfectly efficient. And with enough shrewdness and fanaticism, some people will get better results than others."
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-17-2023 at 07:43 AM.
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