Does Anyone Play Show Anymore ?

[Light]

Originally Posted by Nitro

the biggest problem with the Show bet is when the favorite kills the value of the Show prices when it finishes anywhere in the money.

That's a thing of the past. Back in2007 NPP was brought up on this forum.

There was $600k bet on Street Sense to show in the Jim Dandy today, but the other two horses who finished in the money paid more than $3 to show. Prior to net pool pricing, the show payoffs would have been $2.10 on all. How does this work?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=38259

But I agree with you that dutching to win is at times more desirable than a show bet when used as a show bet.(I.E. dutching) I just did that at Tam.

One horse was 7/2 and the other 5-1. The 7/2 won. The return was the equivalent of getting $4.80 to show as opposed to $3.20 that the horse actually paid to show.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Light

....But I agree with you that dutching to win is at times more desirable than a show bet when used as a show bet.(I.E. dutching) I just did that at Tam.

One horse was 7/2 and the other 5-1. The 7/2 won. The return was the equivalent of getting $4.80 to show as opposed to $3.20 that the horse actually paid to show.

Based on the value of the 2 entries you mentioned the Dutch win play would be as follows:

Ex. - 2 entry Dutch play
	LOW		HI	BET$	PRF$	PRF %
Odds	3.5		5.0			
Ea Ret	$9		$12			
Ea Bet	$12		$9	$21	$33	157%
TotRet	$54		$54			

My math shows that in order to achieve that same 157% profit % with a Show bet the return would have to be $5.14.
$5.14 Return ($2 Bet) = $3.14 profit/$2 = 157% profit margin.
That’s not much different from the $4.80 listed, but still the increase necessary just makes the profit potential from Show betting more difficult to keep pace with Dutching when making these types of comparisons.

BTW Nice Play!

[Aerocraft67]

I love an incisive vertical wager as much as the next guy. But sometimes I just want to bet that a longshot runner hits the board without having to answer for the other two finishers.

That's my simplest justification for show bets. It's just a cruder vertical wager. Sometimes that sufficiently matches an opinion to play.

Ideally we all construct vertical wagers to match a precise opinion and carve out value-dampening outcomes. We should dedicated more of our handle to firmer opinions accordingly. But sometimes that's not practical, or an otherwisee valid opinion just isn't that precise.

You have to pay the extra costs of breakage betting to show. But you get coverage for that in return. I attribute breakage cost to saving me the trouble of constructing a more efficient vertical wager (which has its own costs).

Unless you're playing the chalk, you want favorites finishing out of your pool, whether or not it's exotic. Same reasoning for place and show as avoiding (or embracing) vertical boxes.

Worst case other than losing a show bet is that your clever shot wins, followed by the favorites in second and third. You should have bet to win to isolate your pick, and avoid the faves that optimally devalued your payofff.

But you have that unfavorable outcome covered without having to bet it explicitly to cash. Were you really going to bet more on that outcome in a trifecta to equalize the payoff, jumping deeper in the pool with favorite-boxers?

Not every wager has to be a precise work of art. I think a show bet can absolutely match an opinion well enough to play.

One pitfall I try to avoid is betting the longest shot on the board to show, especially in a high profile race. I just figure that gets systemically overbet.

All the WPS pool analysis of aggregate random bets I see yield similar results, suggesting there's no inherent disadvantage to show betting. All the pools revert to ROIs resembling the takeout. Jeff P tried to explain to me years ago how those equivalent ROIs still mask place and show disadvantages. Maybe I'll go read that again, but the point is, isn't it just another pool?

[TopTrotter]

What helps is that 'bad' favorite, that has 2 or more reasons why they may be vulnerable (long layoff, weak workout (or overzealous), jockey change, speed dueler, anything). Or the horse starting to go off form but still winning til today, needing time off. Running up the track and leaving 90% of the pool to the sure show horse. One with lots of potential this time of year is that 'can't lose' horse that isn't in it to win it (like a derby pit) but has another race in mind - like the Derby. Nice thing about the show parlay is that most of the bets even when the favorite takes the pool still return a little.