Quote:
Originally Posted by deelo
So I've often thought about this many times and asked several different players their opinion. Collectively, I've gotten two completely opposite sides of the spectrum for answers.
#1 Players wanna be live. They start with Leg 1 wanting to cover all logical contenders but due to budget constraints, end up too skinny in the last legs. Therefore, catching a price in Leg 5 pays better.
#2 Players wanna be live...but when starting with Leg 1 they already know in their head they have those budget constraints as well as how sick the feeling is to sweat out the last half of a sequence when you know you aren't as deep as you want to be so they'd much rather sweat the first half of sequence. They force themselves to go skinny in the first legs so they can relax and start spreading near the end. Therefore, catching a price in Leg 1 pays better.
So basically...which of these pays better?
#1 2/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 15/1
#2 15/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 2/1
Haven't been able to find any hard/reliable data on who's right.
|
I don't have any idea how you'd prove something so specific, so there probably isn't going to be data that conclusively answers your question.
I think that both situations you mentioned are likely to lead to lower payoffs in general because that's when people key---they like to start with something they're confident in, or they want to be alive so they spread early and narrow the ticket late. It's probably not so significant as to matter though to where I would factor it into my play (because there are such a wide range of possible outcomes). I would key what I had confidence in and not worry about the leg.
As 1st Lasix said, the real key is beating one heavy favorite. If you can beat two, you're going to do very well. It's not the 5-2 winners that suck up the pool as much as those 4-5 sure things that everyone has. If you can beat those, then you've got something going.
