Finger Lakes 7/1 Morning Lines - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

levinmpa · 08-30-2022, 12:36 PM

I'm seeing something in the entries at FL today that I haven't seen before. There are 3 entrants on the card listed at 7/1 morning line. I don't really have a problem with it if it's accurate. It's just not something I have seen previously. Could this be a mistake or are these morning lines legit? I have a feeling someone fat fingered the odds and it went into the Equibase database that way, so all other sources have them listed 7/1.

8/30/2022 Finger Lakes
Race 3 #7 Who is Jarett 7/1
Race 4 #2 Pleasedontbounce 7/1
Race 7 #1 Rory Mor 7/1

craigbraddick · 08-30-2022, 02:36 PM

The last time I used Incompass it would not let you enter odds it did not recognize and would not let you finalize the ML if the odds did not balance. 100+Takeout+1 for each horse in the race. It allows a little movement either side of that figure but not a lot.

cj · 08-30-2022, 02:50 PM

I've seen 7-1 before. Seems like only a few places use it. There was one where it was pretty regular, but I don't think it was Finger Lakes.

v j stauffer · 08-30-2022, 03:50 PM

I've seen 7-1 used at a few tracks. IMO nothing wrong with it. The ML is an opinion. If the maker thinks a horse will be 7-1 more power to them.

Could you please post a head on and pan of the next morning line you'd like me to look at?

Thanks!!

lamboguy · 08-30-2022, 04:04 PM

the morning line guy just put up a line of 15-1 on CLINGMAN. i made the line 2-1 the way i do things. i wound up with 9-1 on the sucker! you guys that are chicken to go up against the CAW are nuts, they make plenty of mistakes just like the rest of us. but you must be very selective, otherwise, they and the takeout along with the breakage will help you go clean as a clam.

mountainman · 08-30-2022, 04:44 PM

I never set price-points not commonly associated with morning lines. To do so, in my opinion implies inappropriate certitude and a degree of accuracy no maker can deliver.

Much like guessing someone's weight at 173 lbs and 5 ounces.

MJC922 · 08-30-2022, 05:26 PM

Three 7-1 horses almost surely has to be a mistake for a morning line or someone very green to the process. I have an 8700 race sample sitting in a DB table with MLO in one field and not even one horse out of the 70,000 was listed at 7-1.

cj · 08-30-2022, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJC922

Three 7-1 horses almost surely has to be a mistake for a morning line or someone very green to the process. I have an 8700 race sample sitting in a DB table with MLO in one field and not even one horse out of the 70,000 was listed at 7-1.

It might have been Assiniboia where I remember it.

Jeff P · 08-30-2022, 07:51 PM

This is what I have in my database for 7-1 MLine horses - thoroughbred only - from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 08-29-2022:

First, 2022 ytd all 7-1 MLine thoroughbreds:

Code:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE MLINE=7
      AND ODDS > 0
      AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2022#
      AND [DATE] <= #08-29-2022#
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      206.70        192.30        231.20
Bet               -322.00       -322.00       -322.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -115.30       -129.70        -90.80

Wins                   17            33            55
Plays                 161           161           161
PCT                 .1056         .2050         .3416

ROI                0.6419        0.5972        0.7180
Avg Mut             12.16          5.83          4.20

Next, the above data broken out by track code:

Code:

**************************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code                                       Run Date: 8/30/2022 4:09:41 PM
**************************************************************************************************
                     WIN     WIN       WIN                 PLACE   PLACE
TK   PLAYS  WINS     PCT     IMPACT    ROI    PLACES       PCT     ROI
**************************************************************************************************
ALB  5       1       0.2     1.8941    2         2         0.4     1.54    
ASD  22      2       0.0909  0.8609    0.4364    7         0.3182  1.05    
CPW  12      1       0.0833  0.7889    0.125     2         0.1667  0.2167  
CTM  9       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
ELY  3       0       0       0         0         1         0.3333  0.9667  
FAR  16      3       0.1875  1.7757    0.6812    7         0.4375  0.7875  
GFX  22      5       0.2273  2.1527    1.2045    6         0.2727  0.8364  
HST  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
LBG  11      2       0.1818  1.7218    2.0227    2         0.1818  0.8409  
MCX  11      0       0       0         0         1         0.0909  0.3091  
MIL  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
RIL  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
RUI  4       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
SON  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
SUN  40      3       0.075   0.7103    0.565     4         0.1     0.3375  
WYO  2       0       0       0         0         1         0.5     1.35    
**************************************************************************************************
16 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
**************************************************************************************************

I was curious about the accuracy of 7-1 MLine vs. some other number.

This is what I have for MLines between 6-1 and 8-1 - thoroughbred only - from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 08-29-2022:

Code:

By: MLine

  >=Min        < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 6.0000       6.5000   -8308.70   35768.00     0.7677    1934   17884   .1081   1.0968
 6.5000       7.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
 7.0000       7.5000    -115.30     322.00     0.6419      17     161   .1056   1.0710
 7.5000       8.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
 8.0000       8.5000   -7436.38   36166.00     0.7944    1611   18083   .0891   0.9036

Kind of surprised to see this.

The data suggests whoever is making judgement calls about a horse being 7-1 MLine as opposed to 6-1 or 8-1 knows a thing or two about estimating win likelihood.

-jp

.

levinmpa · 09-01-2022, 12:56 PM

Interesting. It seems the tracks that use a 7/1 MLine are smaller, Quarter Horse or Canadian tracks. Finger Lakes was not a track that used a 7/1 MLine in 2022, so it suggests to me that it may have been a mistake on their part. Anyway, I appreciate everyone's comments on this. It just seemed a bit unusual to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff P

This is what I have in my database for 7-1 MLine horses - thoroughbred only - from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 08-29-2022:

First, 2022 ytd all 7-1 MLine thoroughbreds:

Code:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE MLINE=7
      AND ODDS > 0
      AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2022#
      AND [DATE] <= #08-29-2022#
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      206.70        192.30        231.20
Bet               -322.00       -322.00       -322.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L               -115.30       -129.70        -90.80

Wins                   17            33            55
Plays                 161           161           161
PCT                 .1056         .2050         .3416

ROI                0.6419        0.5972        0.7180
Avg Mut             12.16          5.83          4.20

Next, the above data broken out by track code:

Code:

**************************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code                                       Run Date: 8/30/2022 4:09:41 PM
**************************************************************************************************
                     WIN     WIN       WIN                 PLACE   PLACE
TK   PLAYS  WINS     PCT     IMPACT    ROI    PLACES       PCT     ROI
**************************************************************************************************
ALB  5       1       0.2     1.8941    2         2         0.4     1.54    
ASD  22      2       0.0909  0.8609    0.4364    7         0.3182  1.05    
CPW  12      1       0.0833  0.7889    0.125     2         0.1667  0.2167  
CTM  9       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
ELY  3       0       0       0         0         1         0.3333  0.9667  
FAR  16      3       0.1875  1.7757    0.6812    7         0.4375  0.7875  
GFX  22      5       0.2273  2.1527    1.2045    6         0.2727  0.8364  
HST  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
LBG  11      2       0.1818  1.7218    2.0227    2         0.1818  0.8409  
MCX  11      0       0       0         0         1         0.0909  0.3091  
MIL  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
RIL  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
RUI  4       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
SON  1       0       0       0         0         0         0       0       
SUN  40      3       0.075   0.7103    0.565     4         0.1     0.3375  
WYO  2       0       0       0         0         1         0.5     1.35    
**************************************************************************************************
16 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
**************************************************************************************************

I was curious about the accuracy of 7-1 MLine vs. some other number.

This is what I have for MLines between 6-1 and 8-1 - thoroughbred only - from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 08-29-2022:

Code:

By: MLine

  >=Min        < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 6.0000       6.5000   -8308.70   35768.00     0.7677    1934   17884   .1081   1.0968
 6.5000       7.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
 7.0000       7.5000    -115.30     322.00     0.6419      17     161   .1056   1.0710
 7.5000       8.0000       0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000   0.0000
 8.0000       8.5000   -7436.38   36166.00     0.7944    1611   18083   .0891   0.9036

Kind of surprised to see this.

The data suggests whoever is making judgement calls about a horse being 7-1 MLine as opposed to 6-1 or 8-1 knows a thing or two about estimating win likelihood.

-jp

.