This is what I have in my database for 7-1 MLine horses - thoroughbred only - from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 08-29-2022:
First, 2022 ytd all 7-1 MLine thoroughbreds:
Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE MLINE=7
AND ODDS > 0
AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2022#
AND [DATE] <= #08-29-2022#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 206.70 192.30 231.20
Bet -322.00 -322.00 -322.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -115.30 -129.70 -90.80
Wins 17 33 55
Plays 161 161 161
PCT .1056 .2050 .3416
ROI 0.6419 0.5972 0.7180
Avg Mut 12.16 5.83 4.20
Next, the above data broken out by track code:
Code:
**************************************************************************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code Run Date: 8/30/2022 4:09:41 PM
**************************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
**************************************************************************************************
ALB 5 1 0.2 1.8941 2 2 0.4 1.54
ASD 22 2 0.0909 0.8609 0.4364 7 0.3182 1.05
CPW 12 1 0.0833 0.7889 0.125 2 0.1667 0.2167
CTM 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ELY 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.9667
FAR 16 3 0.1875 1.7757 0.6812 7 0.4375 0.7875
GFX 22 5 0.2273 2.1527 1.2045 6 0.2727 0.8364
HST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LBG 11 2 0.1818 1.7218 2.0227 2 0.1818 0.8409
MCX 11 0 0 0 0 1 0.0909 0.3091
MIL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RIL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RUI 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SON 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SUN 40 3 0.075 0.7103 0.565 4 0.1 0.3375
WYO 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.5 1.35
**************************************************************************************************
16 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
**************************************************************************************************
I was curious about the accuracy of 7-1 MLine vs. some other number.
This is what I have for MLines between 6-1 and 8-1 - thoroughbred only - from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 08-29-2022:
Code:
By: MLine
>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.0000 6.5000 -8308.70 35768.00 0.7677 1934 17884 .1081 1.0968
6.5000 7.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.0000 7.5000 -115.30 322.00 0.6419 17 161 .1056 1.0710
7.5000 8.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.0000 8.5000 -7436.38 36166.00 0.7944 1611 18083 .0891 0.9036
Kind of surprised to see this.
The data suggests whoever is making judgement calls about a horse being 7-1 MLine as opposed to 6-1 or 8-1 knows a thing or two about estimating win likelihood.
-jp
.