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Old 12-07-2022, 08:18 PM   #16
mfactor
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
It has been my experience that things that worked in the past do not necessarily pan out in the future...especially when we are talking about the long exotics, whose profit for the season often depend on a single winning ticket or two. You also don't provide enough information about how long you've been a pick-4 and pick-5 bettor...it may very well be that your handicapping skills and your bankroll are inadequate for the task of handling the more complicated exotics. Why not try your hand at the pick-3 or even the daily double, and see how that goes.

As the lesser players flee the game and the "computer guys" gain ever-increasing prominence in the wagering pools, the game gets increasingly harder to beat...and it behooves the serious player to keep improving his skill set, not only in order to profit...but even to survive in this game. We can't rely on our useful methods of old. We must continually keep improving...because our competition in the game keeps getting stronger.
Thanks. Been playing pick 4s and 5s for a minimum of 10 years. Tickets are around 72 for pick 5s and 36 for pick 4s. If I find a 5 to 1 or Higher that I really like I will play a win bet. I love playing against the chalk and if I have a strong opinion against I won't throw them in.
Thank You
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Old 12-07-2022, 08:23 PM   #17
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You must clear your mind of all things. Remove yourself from the obsession of "trying to win" which is at the root of your blockage. Relax your mind, light some incense to get you in the mood if you so desire. Sit down,close your eyes and do not think of your problem or you will sink deeper in its clutches. Just pay attention to the flow of your breath. Take some deep breaths. When your normal breathing slows down to slower than normal, you have achieved some relaxation. Do not resume playing until that has occurred.

When that occurs, ask the universe for help from within yourself regarding this matter in a serious manner. Be patient. The answer will not be immediate or in words. It will show you the answer gently so you have to pay attention for the answer. When you resume play, you will be looking at the races without the same mentality that caused you to lose all year. You will be refreshed and your abilities enhanced. You will then discover what you were doing wrong which only you know but cannot perceive with your present state of mind. Your higher self will show you the way if you follow what I say.

If you find what I say too "out there", that's fine. Just be aware if you ignore what I say,when you do come out of whatever the blockage is that is causing your dilemma , you will be following the steps I say here. It's just that you will not be conscious that you are doing these same steps in a different manner (such as during sleep or subconsciously) and it will take you longer to accomplish it.
Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. Stated some procedures for getting your mind ready. Along the lines of what you stated. Certainly can't hurt.
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Old 12-07-2022, 08:30 PM   #18
mfactor
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Thanks for everything Gentleman I have enough here to turn my game around.
I will report back with results after a few weekends.
With this advice it's all on me if I don't do better.
I believe I will.
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Old 12-07-2022, 08:34 PM   #19
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Top 10 list for me (not in any particular order)

1) Take a break! Honestly take a day or two off from racing altogether to regroup

2) Go back and figure out what horses beat you to see what you may have missed so you can watch for it next time

3) If you play multiple tracks please STOP DOING THIS and focus on 1-2 tracks max! Personally, the tracks I play are Oaklawn and Saratoga plus the Triple Crown/Breeders Cup that way I am not doing 3+ tracks figuring out how to stretch my bankroll around which would definitely give me a headache capping multiple tracks all day long

4) Buy information that will actually help you; Don't splurge and buy all the handicapping products expecting to win every race; Instead have 1 past performance or 2 if you like (DRF+Brisnet Ultimate etc) and 1 or 2 other handicapper sheets that way you are not overdoing your handicapping and that you can focus on little things

5) Set a bankroll for the day and if you go by it STOP BETTING! Don't go chasing races so you can be "even" with the racing gods; If you lose it all (sadly) then pack up and wait for the next day; But if you have enough to play minimize your bets wisely

6) That last sentence leads into #6 where you play bets that you have a high chance of hitting vs playing every race and playing bets that have a lower chance of hitting; If you do that chances are your win% will increase and you'll feel better knowing that you have a shot to win in smart bets vs bad bets; Also set reasonable betting amounts for the bets you do like $1 exactas vs $10 exactas or 10 cent supers vs $20 super boxes etc etc

7) Focus on good betting races to wager on (this goes well with #6) like races with good-sized fields and horses who actually have starts vs races where horses have limited info and you are relying on a miracle to happen with bets placed on the little info you have; Focusing on good betting races increases the likelihood that you will have a better grasp on the horses and have better confidence that you can find a winner!

8) Set a value for how much a horse is really worth betting; If you like a horse think of a good odd to bet on and if the opportunity gets there and it is staying like that Bet it! Think of it this way: Is my bet that I am going to place a return well to make a profit or am I just doing this for action and to get back?

9) Get a good night's sleep and have a good diet plan; Getting a good night's sleep (all night) increases brain function (for concentration and productivity) keep a good weight and also helps emotions stay in check! Also if you plan a diet out for yourself like staying within 2000 cal/drinking lots of water/going for a walk-jog etc this will also improve your mental state and you will feel better about yourself! You will feel ready to win and have the confidence you need to succeed! Plus dieting also means cutting back on alcohol and other drug intakes (vaping/bong rips/gummies etc)

10) The final step is to put all the steps above together and grind grind grind! Just like Dwyane "The Rock" Johnson once said "Success isn't always about greatness; It's about consistency; Constant hard work leads to success and greatness will come"

Hopefully, this helps!! Good luck!!! I know you can do it!
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Old 12-07-2022, 10:17 PM   #20
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I really appreciate that. It takes time for you guys to reply and they are so well thought out. I believe I'm gonna hang around here for awhile. I'm kind of overwhelmed with the responses and how nice you all are and you are quality people. It's amazing.
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Old 12-19-2022, 01:33 AM   #21
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2) There is something that has degraded about your mental focus.

3) You are not doing a post mortem on enough races to determine what you might could have done better.

5) You have not established a consistent process or you are not always maintaining a consistent process.

6) You are pressing, trying too hard to force your results, instead of letting your knowledge lead you.

Rank each of the four above.
Perhaps No 6 is 35%, No 5 is 30%, No 2 is 25% and No 2 is 10%
Maybe your figures are the opposite in some areas but the 4 add up to 100%. Work on the worst figure first.

I think bettors who like the favourites fall into No 6 way too often especially if they use the word "greed" instead of "force".
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Old 12-23-2022, 12:53 PM   #22
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2022 has been a difficult year for me. I'm a weekend warrior,,sometimes Friday Saturday and Sunday and sometimes Saturday and Sunday. I play Santa Anita or Del Mar and try to stay away from Los Alamitos.
Bankroll for the weekend is about a nickle. I play pick 5s and Pick 4s. Usually I make my share of scores. Except this year. I can't get going. I haven't even been deep enough to say I lost the last leg. There was one occasion when I had the 10 this summer at Del Mar for a 9500 pick 5 and Rispoli came out of the clouds to beat me.
The camera was on the 10 and Trevor didn't mention the horse that beat me until the last moment.
Anyway I'm lost right now. I don't have a feel for what's going on.....My long winded question is what do you guys do to break slumps. Any ideas would be appreciated.
I'm not a horizontal player for the most part. But, when I struggle, I focus intently on value pertaining to a few trusted angles. It really helps me cut my losses, which is important for my psyche. If indeed, you are an apt handicapper, situations will arise that present value. As long as you aren't playing too many tracks, they aren't that hard to find.
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Old 12-23-2022, 03:07 PM   #23
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Stop, re-evaluate with feedback data, check to see if it the VENUE you chose and not your handicapping style

If your modus operandi worked in the past, play on paper a few days
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Old 01-01-2023, 12:38 PM   #24
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And what I saw - and tracked - was that the game had changed from November to March.
Curious as to what you found had changed.

I am mainly a win bettor, when I get into a slump, I will bet more than one horse to win in a single race, slating my wagers toward the longer odds horse..
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Old 01-01-2023, 01:11 PM   #25
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Bet every horse in a small field to win.

Now you're going for 2 in a row.
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Old 01-01-2023, 03:41 PM   #26
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Buy a voucher, take to window and cash it in. Or there is always the baseball "slump breaker".
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Old 01-01-2023, 10:19 PM   #27
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Post Mortem

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2)

3) You are not doing a post mortem on enough races to determine what you might could have done better.
This is a good one
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Old 01-28-2023, 08:22 AM   #28
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my experience is eerily similar to yours except that i basically just spot play watch horses to win on this circuit. i also pass los al pretty much. (i maybe bet geezer (?) there off what was really the worst trip of the entire del mar meet iirc?)

anyhow i "beat" the main del mar meet but really just hung on as i was trending down at the end. at santa anita i didn't get many horses but was set to win again with, ironically a #10 horse, who's candy on october 8th but miller closed up the rail and nailed me right at the end. i accepted defeat and looked forward to del mar november but kept getting the same trip there where i'm 8th and close to 5th, not really challenging. i was 0/5 and thought about trying the last race of the meet where i figured earls rock and the irad ortiz horse would be underlays. luckily i passed sincei believe they ran 1-2.

so you're not alone if it's any consolation and fortunately we get a little break here to recharge our batteries. good luck in 2023!!
looking back at the thread, i'm not sure there's any way to break a slump? sometimes i feel the best we can do is hope the slump doesn't break us??

circuit specific: #2 admiralty place in the first yesterday was the kind of play here that is at times too typical for me. my notes say "bad ride by juan," then i wait (only!!) six months for the horse to resurface only to see that juan has jumped to the #1 horse. i consult with a player here who is one of the best (if not the single best) "lone wolf" (non whale) players of this circuit. he calls this race 7-2 cold but i still think i can beat the 7 so i put in the play and go to bed. i wake up, admiralty place is dead on the board and millie ball is on the computer acting like the horse isn't even in the race. i do beat the seven, but of course juan gets away on the other drysdale horse #1 and i'm too far back to run him down. and the game continues.....
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Old 01-28-2023, 11:12 AM   #29
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Mark Grace used to get really drunk and bet on the ugliest horse he could find.
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:58 AM   #30
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When the inevitable slump occurs, that is the time for the horseplayer to prove to himself that he is a mature, disciplined player. It's easy to be a "frontrunner"...in life, and in gambling. When you are a "frontrunner" at the track, you are sailing along with your pockets full of cash, your handicapping acumen is validated...and you feel as if you are the "King of the World".

But when the inevitable slump comes about...are you a "mature and disciplined player" who sticks to the original game plan then? Or do you start chasing in order to get even...start doubting yourself and your methods...and become a sucker who scours the internet in search of the next "can't lose" handicapping system or software? That's how the system-selling shysters stay in business, you know.

How do I handle a slump? I eliminate all desire to "get even quickly", and I stick to my game plan as precisely as I can. And if I know that the slump hasn't adversely affected my handicapping and betting...then I find no reason to "take a break" in order to clear my head during the slump. I know that I have been through slumps before, I know that I have always managed through them with my bankroll and my sanity at an acceptable level...and I expect the same to happen with the next slump that I encounter. Of course, I do this because my long experience in the game has fortified me with the prerequisite level of confidence, in myself and my methods. And confidence in ourselves and our methods comes only if we have had some success in the game for a reasonably long length of time. Try as we might...we can't fake confidence.
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