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Old 11-07-2022, 01:50 PM   #16
metro
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Taking nothing away from LIG but, how much of that early pace of the Classic was wind aided though? At the very least the first 1/4, and likely the first 3/8ths. Compare that to the Dirt Mile where the first 1/4 was into the clubhouse turn and the second 1/4 was into a headwind on the backstretch.
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Old 11-07-2022, 02:23 PM   #17
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I don't a hurricane couls account for a 174 pace rating.

Maybe Thorograph gave it a 97?
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Old 11-07-2022, 02:30 PM   #18
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Taking nothing away from LIG but, how much of that early pace of the Classic was wind aided though? At the very least the first 1/4, and likely the first 3/8ths. Compare that to the Dirt Mile where the first 1/4 was into the clubhouse turn and the second 1/4 was into a headwind on the backstretch.
I wasn't there to observe the wind. But even if you don't fully trust a pace figure because of wind or some other reason, it's clear they were going ridiculously fast by how much they opened up on the rest of the field. Horses like Hot Rod Charlie and even Olympiad have "near front runner" type speed in high caliber routes and they got left in the dust early.
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Old 11-07-2022, 05:32 PM   #19
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I wasn't there to observe the wind. But even if you don't fully trust a pace figure because of wind or some other reason, it's clear they were going ridiculously fast by how much they opened up on the rest of the field. Horses like Hot Rod Charlie and even Olympiad have "near front runner" type speed in high caliber routes and they got left in the dust early.
I wasn’t there either but watched the Keeneland feed most of the day, they eluded to it several times. Want to say between 30-40 mph most of the day. Headwind on the backside, tailwind in the stretch. That’s significant and certainly assisted the time that LIG ran that first 1/4 straight to the first turn.

The wind affected other races more so in trips too, namely the Distaff where somehow Irad Ortiz thought it was okay to go 4 to 5 wide down the backside into it with Nest…. without cover. Brilliant! No wonder she was cooked by the time she hit the top of the stretch.
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Old 11-07-2022, 06:34 PM   #20
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The wind affected other races more so in trips too, namely the Distaff where somehow Irad Ortiz thought it was okay to go 4 to 5 wide down the backside into it with Nest…. without cover. Brilliant! No wonder she was cooked by the time she hit the top of the stretch.
I thought a few horses got torched a bit moving too soon or while too wide in that race. I think the race was hotter than it looks.
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Old 11-07-2022, 07:00 PM   #21
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Who's being critical? None here that I can see (except maybe CJ on Gunnite )
I am. I think “a two time Breeders cup mile winner” sounds pretty good.

But I also get that’s not a classic distance, won’t really mean much in the shed etc.
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Old 11-07-2022, 07:25 PM   #22
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I am. I think “a two time Breeders cup mile winner” sounds pretty good.

But I also get that’s not a classic distance, won’t really mean much in the shed etc.
We already had one of those in Goldencents, so they had a pretty good idea if it was worth it or not.
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Old 11-07-2022, 07:30 PM   #23
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If they were going to run Life is Good in a race other than the Classic, the Sprint would have been perfect. He would have thrashed that group.
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Old 11-07-2022, 07:40 PM   #24
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If they were going to run Life is Good in a race other than the Classic, the Sprint would have been perfect. He would have thrashed that group.
There were several on the card that would have to be honest. Not sure what has happened to our sprinters, but they stink. Are too many trying to be turned into distance horses?
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Old 11-07-2022, 08:37 PM   #25
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I wasn’t there either but watched the Keeneland feed most of the day, they eluded to it several times. Want to say between 30-40 mph most of the day. Headwind on the backside, tailwind in the stretch. That’s significant and certainly assisted the time that LIG ran that first 1/4 straight to the first turn.
I was there Saturday on the rail around the mile finish line for most all of the day. From our vantage point, I would say their was a pretty constant hard wind in the 20 mile per hour range and then big random gusts of maybe up to 40 mph which popped up quite often during the day. The wind got stronger to me as the day went by and it was strong during the running of the Classic.

I think you have it right for the wind effect on the days races. Had a great time and hit a few races to make it a productive weekend, keeping the wind factor in mind for my picks.

Flightline looked about the same, great!, going by in front of us both times. Amazing horse and run.

Sorry that Epicenter got injured in the race. On track, I didn't hear anything on why he did not finish, had to find out later when we got back to the place we were staying. Physically, he looked great to me pre race and I thought he might run a big race.
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Old 11-07-2022, 10:31 PM   #26
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If they were going to run Life is Good in a race other than the Classic, the Sprint would have been perfect. He would have thrashed that group.
I guess that would be a negative in the Breeding shed? I don’t know enough about it, but I’m guessing nobody wants a great sprinter?
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Old 11-07-2022, 10:38 PM   #27
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There were several on the card that would have to be honest. Not sure what has happened to our sprinters, but they stink. Are too many trying to be turned into distance horses?
The dirt sprint used to have a full field just about every year...now it feels like 70% of races are sprints and we cant find more than 8 or 9 and some of those had no prayer.
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Old 11-08-2022, 09:37 AM   #28
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There were several on the card that would have to be honest. Not sure what has happened to our sprinters, but they stink. Are too many trying to be turned into distance horses?
I posted some data a year or two ago that looked at the 10 best winning Beyer figures every year by category going all the way back to when they were started in DRF. The averages were remarkably consistent. There would be an occasional good or bad year but it would eventually mean revert.

It suggested horses suddenly started earning lower figures the same year as the Big Brown steroid controversy (which was followed by no more steroids the next year). The sprinters dropped more than the routers (which I think makes sense). That's far from proof, but it's quite a coincidence.

I don't buy the stretch out idea. Trainers have always tried to stretch horses out because there's more prestige and money routing. If anything it used to be worse because the young sprinters used to be able to qualify for the Derby off some of their early form. Now with races like the Derby out of the question they drop back to sprinting faster.

The field would have looked a bit better if Jack Christopher stayed in and Gunite chose the right race.
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Old 11-11-2022, 05:34 PM   #29
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What to people want ? Flightline in a one horse field ? Cause if they all cowered to another race . That’s what it would of been . Then the belly aching would of never ceased . The BC Classic is where you put up or shut up if you have a top horse . Now, there’s blame attached to taking a chance and sportsmanship? Damned if you do , damned if you don’t
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Old 11-11-2022, 06:59 PM   #30
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Life is Good already won the BC Mile. It would have devalued him to run there again. They could have retired him. They took their shot. I'm sort of surprised that people would now criticize them when it seems that mostly we criticize connections for not taking chances.

Earlier this year, when Knicks Go basically conceded the Pegasus to Life Is Good, they got blasted by many for doing it. Now, when a horse flaunts his talents in the opposite manner, people are also being critical. So which is it?
I think this falls into the category of "wanting to have it both ways"..
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