Winning Odds

[headhawg]

Hey dorfman. Why don't you become a VIP and enter the contest? The world is full of blowhards like you. Prove something. Otherwise go back into your handicapping dreamland where you are the king.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by delfman

yeah, I don't know what I'm talking about!

Yup. I typed slowly, so looks like you got it.

$0.008

[steveb]

Originally Posted by delfman

your question does not do you much good without factoring in field size.
A 2-1 horse in a 6 horse field has a MUCH greater chance of winning than a 2-1 horse in a 12 horse field.

why, ignoring the fact that the 2/1(.333) is the implied prob regardless of field size?

how accurate the final odds are, will be a function of who is effectively making the odds(ie how good the players are), and not the size of the field.


obscure places with smaller pools will likely be less efficient but can't see what field size has to do with it.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Why would I waste my time like that?

How about we play golf for $500?
Oh, wait. I don't play golf.

How about we break boards for $500?

I can do that.
(Still.)

Waste your time? Wouldn't beating delfman for a thousand bucks be a great marketing point? Get Dave's computer handicapping program and stomp your old pulling-it-out-of-your-ass handicapping.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Waste your time? Wouldn't beating delfman for a thousand bucks be a great marketing point? Get Dave's computer handicapping program and stomp your old pulling-it-out-of-your-ass handicapping.

A lost would far out weight a win!

[Sea Hero]

Originally Posted by delfman

IE - betting 2-1 shots in a 12 horse field going long on the turf for any condition other than high $ stakes horses is simply stupid.
betting 2-1 shots in a 6 horse field sprinting on the dirt is MUCH smarter IMO.

What are you smoking, dude?

It's the opposite. A 2-1 in a large, chaotic field got that price because it has a lot going for it...as opposed to a 2-1 in an analyzed to death field...who may be bet by people only because they are looking for something to beat the odds-on favorite.