Winning Odds - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

soflant · 10-19-2022, 09:44 AM

I was wondering if anyone has done a study if a handicapper would bet simply bet odds what would be the best range of odds to bet on? In other words what is the best odds to bet on that show a consistent profit? I hope my questions make sense. I am free to answer all responses. Thanks in advance.

xtb · 10-19-2022, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soflant

I was wondering if anyone has done a study if a handicapper would bet simply bet odds what would be the best range of odds to bet on? In other words what is the best odds to bet on that show a consistent profit? I hope my questions make sense. I am free to answer all responses. Thanks in advance.

What odds? ML, 10mtp, 5mtp, 0mtp, FO?

P.Rosa · 10-19-2022, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xtb

What odds? ML, 10mtp, 5mtp, 0mtp, FO?

It doesn't matter, none of the odds show a profit.

Someone posted an ROI by odds chart a while ago, maybe he/she could post it again.

xtb · 10-19-2022, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P.Rosa

It doesn't matter, none of the odds show a profit.

Someone posted an ROI by odds chart a while ago, maybe he/she could post it again.

Agree, just clarifying which odds from the question.

soflant · 10-19-2022, 10:32 AM

Which odds range show the best winning percentage? I mean the post time odds? Hopefully I answered this correctly.

formula_2002 · 10-19-2022, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soflant

I was wondering if anyone has done a study if a handicapper would bet simply bet odds what would be the best range of odds to bet on? In other words what is the best odds to bet on that show a consistent profit? I hope my questions make sense. I am free to answer all responses. Thanks in advance.

The best and only odds to bet on are those that are overlays. The next question should be " how do you find overlays for long term profit". GOOD LUCK WITH THAT.

soflant · 10-19-2022, 11:51 AM

The chart I am looking for is for example what is the winning percentage of a 4-1 horse at post time? Now I am not looking for it's probably of winning but what is it's actual winning percentage? Thanks.

ranchwest · 10-19-2022, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soflant

The chart I am looking for is for example what is the winning percentage of a 4-1 horse at post time? Now I am not looking for it's probably of winning but what is it's actual winning percentage? Thanks.

It's a huge problem nowadays. There is so much late money going down that you really have no idea what the final odds will be. This week I saw a horse go from 8/1 at a few minutes to post to 3/1 as they loaded in the gates to 3/5 final odds. And ran second! It happens often.

But, there is an approximate correlation between odds and percentage of wins. So, I think the best answer to your question is that horses at 7/2 or less win most races. Of course, that does not help very much.

Sea Hero · 10-19-2022, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xtb

Agree, just clarifying which odds from the question.

A 4-1 tote will win about 16% of the time.

soflant · 10-19-2022, 01:23 PM

Thanks so much Ranchwest and Sea hero.

delfman · 10-19-2022, 03:41 PM

your question does not do you much good without factoring in field size.
A 2-1 horse in a 6 horse field has a MUCH greater chance of winning than a 2-1 horse in a 12 horse field.

Jeff P · 10-19-2022, 04:20 PM

Here's what I have over the past year in my current database, thoroughbred races only, all tracks, from 10-19-2021 through yesterday 10-18-2022:

--How to read: The first table shows what would've happened had a player bet $2.00 to Win, Place, and Show on every horse with odds greater than 0. Note that I included the ODDS > 0 constraint to avoid reporting horses in the data not available for betting because they were running for purse money only. Also note that the Show column in the table below understates show roi because I didn't account for races where the stewards ruled there would be no show wagering because of small fieldsize and/or presence of an overwhelming favorite likely to create a negative show pool. The same thing applies to the place column but to a much lesser extent than show. (Didn't think I'd be typing a disclaimer when I ran the query/whew.)

Code:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE ODDS > 0
      AND [DATE] >= #10-19-2021#
      AND [DATE] <= #10-18-2022#
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals   399442.34     396143.86     391176.34
Bet            -526620.00    -526620.00    -526620.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L            -127177.66    -130476.14    -135443.66

Wins                36355         72137        103668
Plays              263310        263310        263310
PCT                 .1381         .2740         .3937

ROI                0.7585        0.7522        0.7428
Avg Mut             10.99          5.49          3.77

--How to read: The second table shows the above data broken out by incremental odds ranges (final odds) of 2.50 (one row per incremental odds range.) The first row shows odds greater than 0 up to just under 5-2. The second row shows odds greater than or equal to 5-2 to just under 5-1, etc.

Code:

By: Odds

  >=Min        < Max        P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct   Impact
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0.0000       2.5000  -13993.20   93148.00     0.8498   17150   46574   .3682   2.6670
 2.5000       5.0000  -19834.62  107588.00     0.8156    9769   53794   .1816   1.3153
 5.0000       7.5000  -14099.18   69400.00     0.7968    3929   34700   .1132   0.8201
 7.5000      10.0000  -10221.58   47858.00     0.7864    1976   23929   .0826   0.5981
10.0000      12.5000   -8400.80   35076.00     0.7605    1111   17538   .0633   0.4588
12.5000      15.0000   -7471.24   26052.00     0.7132     635   13026   .0487   0.3531
15.0000      17.5000   -5655.74   20548.00     0.7248     436   10274   .0424   0.3074
17.5000      20.0000   -4308.54   16696.00     0.7419     315    8348   .0377   0.2733
20.0000      22.5000   -3708.90   13714.00     0.7296     226    6857   .0330   0.2387
22.5000      25.0000   -3596.50   11368.00     0.6836     159    5684   .0280   0.2026
25.0000      27.5000   -2483.38   10020.00     0.7522     139    5010   .0277   0.2009
27.5000      30.0000   -2885.72    8842.00     0.6736     102    4421   .0231   0.1671
30.0000      32.5000   -1965.94    7422.00     0.7351      85    3711   .0229   0.1659
32.5000      35.0000   -3202.40    6620.00     0.5163      50    3310   .0151   0.1094
35.0000      37.5000   -2195.50    5674.00     0.6131      47    2837   .0166   0.1200
37.5000      40.0000   -2370.40    5074.00     0.5328      34    2537   .0134   0.0971
40.0000      42.5000   -1905.20    4510.00     0.5776      31    2255   .0137   0.0996
42.5000      45.0000   -1586.90    3922.00     0.5954      26    1961   .0133   0.0960
45.0000    9999.0000  -17291.92   33088.00     0.4774     135   16544   .0082   0.0591

--General trend: The lower the final odds the higher the win pct and the higher the flat win bet roi for each 1.00 wagered.

-jp

.

Jeff P · 10-19-2022, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by delfman

your question does not do you much good without factoring in field size.
A 2-1 horse in a 6 horse field has a MUCH greater chance of winning than a 2-1 horse in a 12 horse field.

Actually it doesn't.

Here's the 5-2 incremental odds range with the data broken out by fieldsize:

Code:

query start:         10/19/2022 1:22:10 PM
query end:           10/19/2022 1:22:15 PM
elapsed time:        5 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE ODDS >= 2.5 
      AND ODDS < 3 
      AND [DATE] >= #10-19-2021# 
      AND [DATE] <= #10-18-2022# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals    20676.34      20720.00      20478.08
Bet             -24692.00     -24692.00     -24692.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L              -4015.66      -3972.00      -4213.92

Wins                 2803          5420          7273
Plays               12346         12346         12346
PCT                 .2270         .4390         .5891

ROI                0.8374        0.8391        0.8293
Avg Mut              7.38          3.82          2.82

Code:

By: FieldSize

Value      P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1        0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
 2        0.00       0.00     0.0000       0       0   .0000     0.0000       0.00  
 3      -30.60      82.00     0.6268       7      41   .1707     0.7520       7.34  
 4     -128.92     588.00     0.7807      62     294   .2109     0.9289       7.40  
 5     -420.30    2684.00     0.8434     307    1342   .2288     1.0076       7.37  
 6    -1006.66    5736.00     0.8245     640    2868   .2232     0.9829       7.39  
 7    -1050.50    5518.00     0.8096     607    2759   .2200     0.9690       7.36  
 8     -600.00    4302.00     0.8605     502    2151   .2334     1.0279       7.37  
 9     -322.98    2618.00     0.8766     310    1309   .2368     1.0431       7.40  
10     -364.42    1750.00     0.7918     188     875   .2149     0.9464       7.37  
11        4.04     770.00     1.0052     105     385   .2727     1.2012       7.37  
12     -108.92     590.00     0.8154      66     295   .2237     0.9854       7.29  
13       16.00      36.00     1.4444       7      18   .3889     1.7129       7.43  
14       -2.40      18.00     0.8667       2       9   .2222     0.9788       7.80

-jp

.

Jeff P · 10-19-2022, 04:40 PM

And here's the 2-1 incremental odds range from the above dataset broken out by fieldsize:

Code:

query start:         10/19/2022 1:34:03 PM
query end:           10/19/2022 1:34:08 PM
elapsed time:        5 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE ODDS >= 2 
      AND ODDS < 2.5 
      AND [DATE] >= #10-19-2021# 
      AND [DATE] <= #10-18-2022# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals    21639.60      21966.68      21465.50
Bet             -25306.00     -25306.00     -25306.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L              -3666.40      -3339.32      -3840.50

Wins                 3389          6241          8024
Plays               12653         12653         12653
PCT                 .2678         .4932         .6342

ROI                0.8551        0.8680        0.8482
Avg Mut              6.39          3.52          2.68

Code:

By: FieldSize

Value      P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3      -17.60      80.00     0.7800      10      40   .2500     0.9334       6.24  
 4      -93.96     702.00     0.8662      96     351   .2735     1.0211       6.33  
 5     -561.88    2870.00     0.8042     361    1435   .2516     0.9392       6.39  
 6     -759.60    6170.00     0.8769     850    3085   .2755     1.0287       6.37  
 7     -773.16    5848.00     0.8678     795    2924   .2719     1.0151       6.38  
 8     -772.98    4098.00     0.8114     519    2049   .2533     0.9457       6.41  
 9     -393.16    2628.00     0.8504     350    1314   .2664     0.9945       6.39  
10     -214.44    1706.00     0.8743     233     853   .2732     1.0198       6.40  
11      -58.96     704.00     0.9163     101     352   .2869     1.0713       6.39  
12       -8.76     462.00     0.9810      70     231   .3030     1.1314       6.47  
13       -6.50      26.00     0.7500       3      13   .2308     0.8616       6.50  
14       -5.40      12.00     0.5500       1       6   .1667     0.6223       6.60

There's actually very little variation in win rate within an incremental odds range. (Other larger samples from past years bear this out.)

-jp

.

delfman · 10-19-2022, 07:28 PM

your data may be right, but that does not sway my opinion. Maybe just lessens it a tad. so I change MUCH to greater.
the type of race, be it a sprint or route, for whichever type of condition is also going to factor in to the odds of a horse.
IE - betting 2-1 shots in a 12 horse field going long on the turf for any condition other than high $ stakes horses is simply stupid.
betting 2-1 shots in a 6 horse field sprinting on the dirt is MUCH smarter IMO.

your data, absolutely in no way would help anyone win $ betting horses.
there are way too many variables involved to even be having this discussion in the first place.