Calculating exacta fair values

[Half Smoke]

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all of those calculations do not take into account this:


if more than 1 of the entries in the box or play is frontrunning speed then it's very likely that one or more of them will burn out and not be in the top 2


.

[Half Smoke]

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the win pool is usually efficient and generally reflects fairly accurately the odds of a horse winning after the takeout is considered

but in the situation mentioned in the above post the win odds do not accurately reflect the horse's chance of coming in 2nd

the calculations referenced always assume that the horse's chance of coming in 2nd are accurately reflected in the exacta payout

and that is not the case


.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Topping a zombie thread from 13 years ago...a new narcissistic low.

[iamt]

After 13 years Formula had managed an excel spreadsheet that doesn't work properly....

[formula_2002]

correction
THE PROBABILITY OF A HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE.
THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO 1.1765
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18
TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"
TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"
EXACTA PROBABILITY PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:
A X (B/(1-A))
EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%
A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.1765 = .28332
B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.1765 = .21249

PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,
.28332 x(.21249/(1-.28332)) = .0840
THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.084)= 11.90
THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $11.90

[formula_2002]

TODAY'S EXAMPLE OVERLAY


Belmont at the Big A* Race 2
"A" TRACK WIN ODDS $5.00
"B" TRACK WIN ODDS $1.00
WIN POOL TRACK TAKE OUT % 0.150
A WIN % 0.142
B WIN %' 0.425
WINNING EX COMBINATION 4/7
EXACTA PROBABILITY % 0.0701
MIN $1 EXACTA RETURN $14.26
ACTUAL $1 RETURN $18.90

15% overlay min ret $16.39
20% overlay min ret $17.11

[vikingrob]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

TODAY'S EXAMPLE OVERLAY


Belmont at the Big A* Race 2
"A" TRACK WIN ODDS $5.00
"B" TRACK WIN ODDS $1.00
WIN POOL TRACK TAKE OUT % 0.150
A WIN % 0.142
B WIN %' 0.425
WINNING EX COMBINATION 4/7
EXACTA PROBABILITY % 0.0701
MIN $1 EXACTA RETURN $14.26
ACTUAL $1 RETURN $18.90

15% overlay min ret $16.39
20% overlay min ret $17.11

Fair exacta is $14.63 on a $1 wager. NYRA takeout on WPS is 16%.

15% overlay is $16.82, 20% is $17.55.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by vikingrob

Fair exacta is $14.63 on a $1 wager. NYRA takeout on WPS is 16%.

15% overlay is $16.82, 20% is $17.55.

Actually, when you sum 1.(odd+1) for all horse, the booking % is 1.2055, making the take on this race 0.1705

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Actually, when you sum 1/(odd+1) for all horse, the booking % is 1.2055, making the take on this race 0.1705

clarification

[formula_2002]

a very large exacta overlay in today's 1st at Bel

[headhawg]

So now you are going to make identical posts in two threads? Upping your post count?? You truly are clueless.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by headhawg

So now you are going to make identical posts in two threads? Upping your post count?? You truly are clueless.

Thanks for watching . Any analytical comment or are you just passing through.

[headhawg]

All of the analytical comments about your flawed research have already been posted. They go ignored by you. Your matrix has no basis in reality before the fact. That is why it is f**king useless. Yet you continue posting your crap as if it has meaning to actual horseplayers -- you know, the ones that bet. The only reason to post this nonsense is to up your count. Hint: you'll never catch Tom so just stop with double posts, thread necromancy, and your silliness in Off Topic. Watching? How many people actually view your posts for something other than entertainment value?

And don't your "selections" belong in the Selections section?

[Gekish]

"A" horse true odds x true odds of horse "B" (figuring with horse A removed and refiguring the the odds of horse B in the "new race" ). To lazy to give an example today.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Gekish

"A" horse true odds x true odds of horse "B" (figuring with horse A removed and refiguring the the odds of horse B in the "new race" ). To lazy to give an example today.

useful