testing my exacta play prior to actually betting

[formula_2002]

This thread , and the hundreds of my other threads with similar intrest is devoted to CAA

[headhawg]

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by headhawg

You DO have the option of doing just like the kid in your meme.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

You DO have the option of doing just like the kid in your meme.

I will when he does. And if you're talking about covering my eyes? Nearly impossible as he posts too much of this nonsense. He brags about hundreds of (useless) threads and even necromancies one just to post even more.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I'm trying to figure out why you don't have a large enough sample by now to split it and test more thoroughly on the second sample (instantly) that way. After that, if it comes up positive on the second set of races I can see testing it day by day with real money . This whole thing with back-fitting to a prior sample and then testing it day by day from there, I suppose it's something to keep one busy but chances are that's all it will do. If you take 500 races and find something that shows a profit on 100-200 'playable' races, the chances of that actually winning again on another set of 500 or so races with 100-200 plays is actually very very small. I think most people would be surprised to find that 19 out of 20 times when you have something that 'beats' a 500 race sample with 100-200 playable races you have absolutely nothing but a fit to noise. Then you have people talking about ROIs on trainer angles with 20 plays. Don't get me started. Small sample sizes, the new opium of the people I suppose.

When someone posts this, I know they have absolutely no clue about wagering. Back before the databases and computer players sucked the value out of the game, I routinely would clean up on trainer angles with small sample sizes. "Old school" players were sitting there waiting for the trainer to get a sample of 500 claims when I was betting on the hot trainer and hitting 10 out of 20. Those days and prices are long gone but the key was to find a trainer winning with a move and ride it short term while suckers (like you) were collecting your 1000-horse samples. Ahh, wish there were more guys like you and Formula.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by castaway01

When someone posts this, I know they have absolutely no clue about wagering. Back before the databases and computer players sucked the value out of the game, I routinely would clean up on trainer angles with small sample sizes. "Old school" players were sitting there waiting for the trainer to get a sample of 500 claims when I was betting on the hot trainer and hitting 10 out of 20. Those days and prices are long gone but the key was to find a trainer winning with a move and ride it short term while suckers (like you) were collecting your 1000-horse samples. Ahh, wish there were more guys like you and Formula.

Fwiw in my day (or decade) I did quite well as a full time pro player. There were hot trainers and juice trainers in my day, but I never knew a single professional player who attended daily and made enough money consistently with that type of focus.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Fwiw in my day (or decade) I did quite well as a full time pro player. There were hot trainers and juice trainers in my day, but I never knew a single professional player who attended daily and made enough money consistently with that type of focus.

I've told this story before. Back in day I was sitting with my bookie in a NYC paying off my weekly loss. I was such a loser, he gave me a tip on a Frank Martin horse running that day.. It won, and I made back my weekly loss plus.

[formula_2002]

will be right back

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

will be right back

just wanted to recheck the win pool booking percentage.
fair exacta calculation

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I've told this story before. Back in day I was sitting with my bookie in a NYC paying off my weekly loss. I was such a loser, he gave me a tip on a Frank Martin horse running that day.. It won, and I made back my weekly loss plus.

Wow, Frank won so few races, that's quite a miracle!

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Wow, Frank won so few races, that's quite a miracle!

Just a word of tribute

Sigmund Sommers owned 40 horses who ran under the stable's green and gold colors. With U.S. Racing Hall of Fame trainer Frank "Pancho" Martin, Sommer enjoyed considerable success that included winning the Display Handicap five times (1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1978). Horse Racing [ edit]

Sommer's green and gold colors seem to be in most every race. You not only saw his racing colors but with the view across the track, looking north, you saw the North Shore towers he built as the construction contractor.
Of course, there was Sham somewhere in the mix

This was my time..

[formula_2002]

a few of today's overlays.. they do exist!!

Parx Racing* Race 5
"A" TRACK WIN ODDS $3.40
"B" TRACK WIN ODDS $1.00
WIN POOL TRACK TAKE OUT % 0.150
A WIN % 0.193
B WIN %' 0.425

EXACTA PROBABILITY % 0.1018
MIN $1 EXACTA RETURN $9.83
ACTUAL $1 RETURN $13.70
$1 actual return $1.39
15% overlay min ret $11.30
20% overlay min ret $11.79

FR Deauville* Race 2
"A" TRACK WIN ODDS $9.30
"B" TRACK WIN ODDS $1.40
WIN POOL TRACK TAKE OUT % 0.180
A WIN % 0.080
B WIN %' 0.342

EXACTA PROBABILITY % 0.0296
MIN $1 EXACTA RETURN $33.84
ACTUAL $1 RETURN $34.90
$1 actual return $1.03
15% overlay min ret $38.91
20% overlay min ret $40.60

[formula_2002]

I'm following this today.
HK Happy Valley
races 1 through 6

$1 win bet return $19.10 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.91

$1 win bet return $2.95 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.97

$1 win bet return $2.50 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.46

$1 win bet return $18.55 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.38

$1 win bet return $5.15 my winner/all exacta $1 return $6.63


$1 win bet return $2.60 my winner/all exacta $1 return $3.36

these calculations are based on the final $pools

call these plays my control group.

2 future races left .

This is what I do: coffee:

[formula_2002]

[QUOTE=formula_2002;2836040]I'm following this today.
HK Happy Valley
races 1 through 6

$1 win bet return $19.10 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.91

$1 win bet return $2.95 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.97

$1 win bet return $2.50 my winner/all exacta $1 return $2.46

$1 win bet return $18.55 my winner/all exacta $1 return $19.38

$1 win bet return $5.15 my winner/all exacta $1 return $6.63


$1 win bet return $2.60 my winner/all exacta $1 return $3.36

these calculations are based on the final $pools

call these plays my control group.

2 future races left .

This is what I do /QUOTE]

here are the final two

$1 win bet return $14.40 my winner/all exacta $1 return $12.86

$1 win bet return $4.05 my winner/all exacta $1 return $4.34

sums
$69.3 vs $71.91

[elhelmete]

redboard extraordinaire