I threw my $0.02 in the selections forum, but I will copy them here....
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It’s the return of 2013’s wonder-kid American Pharoah, and what a soft return it’s shaping up to be. Let’s take a look at the field.
- THE TRUTH OR ELSE - I cannot make sense of this horses 4-1 morning line making him the second choice behind American Pharoah. Let’s just put this in perspective, this is a horse that hasn’t won since early September, American Pharoah hasn’t raced in 168 days and has a win in his books closer to todays race than TTOE. Coming on a decent 2nd place finish to Far Right in the Southwest in the slop was a bit impressive, but he didn’t beat anyone of note and it was far and away his best run. If he can return to form and take a step forward he has a chance to come flying late, but there are better choices in this field to hit the board.
- MADEFROMLUCKY - Todd Pletcher’s little unknown horse here could come out and surprise a few people there are only two horses that I think have a fighter’s chance of beating AP here and this is one of them. Coming off an impressive OC win down at Gulfstream early in February, this horse could be poised to take on the big boys in the next coming months. A return to the same form he showed last month should put him really close to the front runners. If AP doesn’t have the stamina to hold off, this is the horse that should get first run at him as well. The pedigree figures on this horse are through the roof with a +9 HBD pedigree rating for this surface and distance far and away the highest in this field and would could catch a nice price here as well.
- TIZWONDERFULCREEK - Ummm, no. To say it would take a step forward to compete here is so much of an understatement that I am not sure how to express it. This is a horse that tried a route distance for the first time last time out just a couple of weeks ago and finished 10 lengths behind the winners in a Allowance race here at Oaklawn. Let’s add a -13 HBD pedigree rating for this race and we can toss this horse without much concern.
- AMERICAN PHAROAH - The clear favorite and for good reason. If AP can return anywhere close to his former self this should be a paid workout and an easy 50 points to ensure a spot in Kentucky. The big question mark is simple, he hasn’t raced since the end of September. The public perception of this horse is insane, this is the same horse that was the favorite (behind all others) in Kentucky Derby Futures pool 3 and hasn’t ran against other horses in almost half a year. To make matters even easier for this colt, he looks to be the only early speed and should get to set the pace and could win this one by 10 lengths. But and it’s a big but, there is going to be absolutely no value in playing this horse, we will be lucky if we can get anything close to 3/5 come post time, I am guessing it will be much closer to 1/5 and I just can’t play any horse coming off a 5+ month layoff at those kind of odds.
- BOLD CONQUEST - Speaking of horses that haven’t won in a while, Bold Conquest hasn’t won since August, he has a nice 2nd place finish in the Iroquois and a 3rd place finish in the Breeders Futurity. Although the 3rd place finish in the BC Futurity was a distant 12 length beat down by Carpe Diem and Mr Z. He took three months off and came back to run well in the slop in the Southwest. This is a horse that showed a great deal of promise and seemed to want some more distance before the layoff, coming back 2nd off the layoff he could pop here and it wouldn’t surprise too many people. The price is likely to be right as well.
- PAID ADMISSION - Although this horse hasn’t shown a great deal of speed against weaker fields thus far in his career, he has improved in nearly ever single race he has ran. Something that I love to see in a young horse. His pedigree numbers aren’t horrible (-1) for this distance and surface. He has been working out well here at Oaklawn and could surprise some people at a nice price at the back end of the exotics. I don’t think this horse has what it takes to find the winners circle, but finding some points and his way into the money is absolutely in the realm of possibilities.
- SAKIMA - This is the most interesting horse in the field for me. A horse that hasn’t won yet and hasn’t ran a particularly fast race in any of his three starts. But here is a lightly raced horse with the 2nd highest HBD pedigree score of +5 for this race. It would be a giant jump forward to hit the board here, but his pedigree numbers and his workout reports suggest it may be a possibility. A morning line of 20/1 is intriguing to say the least, here is another horse that I will be using on the back end of exotics.
OVERALL
Just about everything is pointing toward AMERICAN PHAROAH coming into this race and running away with it. I just can’t justify any value in playing him at less than even money, and I don’t see him being anywhere close to even money. And for me, betting is about value, and trying to find value, more than likely I am going to skip this race personally, sit back with a beer and watch the American Pharaoh show. The only other option in my book is to throw together some kind of exotic bet and try to beat the big time favorite. The only two horses that I see that remotely has a chance to even beat a bad AP are MADEFROMLUCKY and BOLD CONQUEST. Even if AP fills in second place you should still see a nice payout in the exotic pools. If for some miracle American Pharoah doesn’t have the stamina to hold onto the pace and falls out of the money it could lead to a huge score in the trifecta pool. Lets throw in AP, SAKIMA, PAID ADMISSION in for second place and throw in late running THE TRUTH OR ELSE into the mix for third.
Looking at something like:
$30 Trifecta ($1 Base Bet)
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The smart play is more than likely no play here.
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