Saratoga Plays

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

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Aug 12

Race 9
Seems like a lot of public handicappers are trying to beat Casa Creed here, and you can add me to that list.
#1 Emmanuel has really come to hand this year now that he's gotten away from his earlier speedball tendencies. Went last to first while 4w around the far turn last time & launched a strong stretch run (in under :23) for a nice win. Serious win threat and the longest price of the top three ML picks (1-4-6).
Pletcher is holding the cards her imo...think Annapolis is the only one who can beat the #1

$6 ex: 1 w 4-6
$3 ex: 1-7
$5 ex: 4-1
($20 bet)...cutoff odds will be 2-1

Race 10
Field seems loaded with hangers and I'll take a shot with a runner who can pass horses, #4 What's Up Doc off a wide trip good effort last time out. Always shows up, fits at this Alw-s- level, and can sit just off what may be a contested pace. Bug allowance doesn't hurt and Torres is riding okay this meet...get the trip & get him home.
Not sure if previous trainer Cash is serving a suspension, but Ginter has subbed well for him, winning three times this year first off the barn change. Will toss both of the (suddenly cold) Linda Rice runners.

$2 ex: 1-10 w 4
$3 ex: 6-4
$10 win: 4 (cutoff odds will be 4-1)
($17 bet)

$37.00 total bets today - good luck

Both horses were very disappointing (esp Emmanuel)- bad picking

Wagered: $411.00
Returned: $538.10
Total: + $127.10
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Aug 13 - Race 4
I like #5 American Know How for the very good Morley/Castellano combo. Tough trip two back when he got crowded a bit on the turn and made contact with the rail. 4w trip last time, hit the lead, and tired (noticeably-switched to his wrong lead late)....hoping he gets a better trip, makes the same move and hangs on. Maybe last time was the time to play him at 24-1?? Settling for a much lower price this time but I think he will run well.

$3 ex: 2-4 w 5
$2 ex: 7-5
$12 win: 5 (cutoff odds will be 5-2)
($20 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Both horses were very disappointing (esp Emmanuel)- bad picking

Wagered: $411.00
Returned: $538.10
Total: + $127.10
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Aug 13 - Race 4
I like #5 American Know How for the very good Morley/Castellano combo. Tough trip two back when he got crowded a bit on the turn and made contact with the rail. 4w trip last time, hit the lead, and tired (noticeably-switched to his wrong lead late)....hoping he gets a better trip, makes the same move and hangs on. Maybe last time was the time to play him at 24-1?? Settling for a much lower price this time but I think he will run well.

$3 ex: 2-4 w 5
$2 ex: 7-5
$12 win: 5 (cutoff odds will be 5-2)
($20 bet)

good luck

$3 ex 4-5 pays $28.50
Another small profit - could have been worse I guess.

Wagered: $431.00
Returned: $566.60
Total: + $135.60

see y'all Wednesday

[PhantomOnTour]

Wagered: $431.00
Returned: $566.60
Total: + $135.60

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Aug 16 - Race 5
Hoping #5 Front Man is the man for Kantarmaci. No real shot last time behind a slow pace. Still ran on well through fast final 1/4 and galloped out nicely. Should get a better set up and hopefully he can be there late.
Also using a bit of a stab with #8 Ghostlyprince who sports some lowish Beyers and a bad overall record. Gets Prat today, is very consistent, and has had some odd trips. Three back Trevor waited behind a slow pace, came wide thru the far turn and stretch, and this gelding still ran on well thru the lane (good gallop out too). Two back he was hard held early behind another slow pace and didn't really start running until the last 1/16 or so (galloped out very well again). Another kind of passive ride behind a slow pace last time and he did well to run 2nd. Hoping Prat rides him more aggressively and he gets a big piece at a price.

$2 ex: 5 w 1-2-4-7-8-10
$1 ex: 8 w 1-2-4-5-7-10
$4 win: 8
($22 bet)


good luck

[OzYank]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $431.00
Returned: $566.60
Total: + $135.60

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Aug 16 - Race 5
Hoping #5 Front Man is the man for Kantarmaci. No real shot last time behind a slow pace. Still ran on well through fast final 1/4 and galloped out nicely. Should get a better set up and hopefully he can be there late.
Also using a bit of a stab with #8 Ghostlyprince who sports some lowish Beyers and a bad overall record. Gets Prat today, is very consistent, and has had some odd trips. Three back Trevor waited behind a slow pace, came wide thru the far turn and stretch, and this gelding still ran on well thru the lane (good gallop out too). Two back he was hard held early behind another slow pace and didn't really start running until the last 1/16 or so (galloped out very well again). Another kind of passive ride behind a slow pace last time and he did well to run 2nd. Hoping Prat rides him more aggressively and he gets a big piece at a price.

$2 ex: 5 w 1-2-4-7-8-10
$1 ex: 8 w 1-2-4-5-7-10
$4 win: 8
($22 bet)


good luck

Booyaa!!!!! Very very nice returns there!!!!!!!!!!!

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $431.00
Returned: $566.60
Total: + $135.60

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Aug 16 - Race 5
Hoping #5 Front Man is the man for Kantarmaci. No real shot last time behind a slow pace. Still ran on well through fast final 1/4 and galloped out nicely. Should get a better set up and hopefully he can be there late.
Also using a bit of a stab with #8 Ghostlyprince who sports some lowish Beyers and a bad overall record. Gets Prat today, is very consistent, and has had some odd trips. Three back Trevor waited behind a slow pace, came wide thru the far turn and stretch, and this gelding still ran on well thru the lane (good gallop out too). Two back he was hard held early behind another slow pace and didn't really start running until the last 1/16 or so (galloped out very well again). Another kind of passive ride behind a slow pace last time and he did well to run 2nd. Hoping Prat rides him more aggressively and he gets a big piece at a price.

$2 ex: 5 w 1-2-4-7-8-10
$1 ex: 8 w 1-2-4-5-7-10
$4 win: 8
($22 bet)


good luck

$1 ex 8-7 pays $133.25
$4 win 8 pays $72.00

Prat gets it done by a whisker

Wagered: $453.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $318.85

[PhantomOnTour]

Wagered: $453.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $318.85
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Aug 17 - Race 1
Love the chances of #2 Sippican Shop. McPeek barn warming up (longshot winner and longshot place runner on Sunday) and I think he will have a good last few weeks of the meet. This guy was easily 8 lengths behind the 2nd to last runner after a 1/4m in his debut. Put in a good run while greenly switching leads a few times in the lane. Sent him straight to Sar after that and he has a solid work tab, including some fast 4f moves, which will hopefully have him more on his toes at the start today. Gambling that the Rice runner is a chronic hanger that she wants to unload.

$10 win: 2
($10 bet)

Race 7
Even though she's in a pretty tough spot, I'm sticking with what I saw regarding #11 Fancy Stax in her debut (see Post #38 in this thread) and giving her a small shot to get into the ex. She scratched last week, draws wide, loses Prat (who was named), and now tries MSW foes, but this barn is very good with 2nd time starters. Hope she's more professional and can duplicate that big run on the stretch out. ML 12-1 should hold.
Spreading quite a bit in a competitive field.

$1 ex: 1-5 w 11
$2 ex: 3-7-8 w 11
$8 win: 11 (cutoff odds will be 6-1)
($16 bet)

$26.00 total bet today - good luck

***and thanks to Andy Serling for getting the scratches out so early every day via Twitter (even though he blocked me ). They are very helpful

[PhantomOnTour]

Wagered: $479.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $292.85
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Big whiff yesterday, 0-2

Aug 18 - Race 8
Not sure I'll get much value on #4 Seize The Grey with this race coming off the turf, but he's my choice in his 2nd start of the meet for Lukas (my pet angle).

$2 ex: 2-8-10 w 4
$12 win: 4 (cutoff odds will be 2-1)
($18 bet)
*using the #8 off a brave debut for Saffie when he came up the rail in traffic for a gutsy win. Will make a win bet if the price is right. Bred & meant for turf but ran well on an off track that day and gets another one today.

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $479.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $292.85
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Big whiff yesterday, 0-2

Aug 18 - Race 8
Not sure I'll get much value on #4 Seize The Grey with this race coming off the turf, but he's my choice in his 2nd start of the meet for Lukas (my pet angle).

$2 ex: 2-8-10 w 4
$12 win: 4 (cutoff odds will be 2-1)
($18 bet)
*using the #8 off a brave debut for Saffie when he came up the rail in traffic for a gutsy win. Will make a win bet if the price is right. Bred & meant for turf but ran well on an off track that day and gets another one today.

good luck

The above play didn't meet my minimum odds requirement so I'll substitute a play here in Race 9.

$2 ex: 1-2-5 w 6
$10 win: 6
($16 bet)

[PhantomOnTour]

First bet didn't meet my odds requirement, and my substitute runner could only manage a 3rd place finish. No good

Wagered: $495.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $276.80
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Aug 19 - Race 9
For some reason I usually pick a tough race to play, so I'll stick with that trend and make the Alabama my betting race today.
I went on and on about #3 Julia Shining in another thread so I won't repeat it here - I think she's all set to run a big one.

$3 ex: 2-8 w 3
$15 win: 3 (cutoff odds will be 5-2)
($21 bet)


*also taking a small ticket shot at the late Pick 5 because I think the sequence is very formful (not an official bet for the purposes of this Sar thread, but I will play this ticket) and I'd like to get paid if I'm right about my Alabama pick.

R7: 2-4-5-7-8
R8: 4-7
R9: 3
R10: 2-5-9
R11: 10-14
($30 bet for the 50 cent minimum)

good luck y'all !

[PhantomOnTour]

Ugly day yesterday. Busy today, will update totals later.

Aug 20 - Race 8
Like the fact that Hernandez stuck around to ride the #8 Lord Vincent
for Mcpeek.

$6 win: 8
$9 place: 8

Good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Updated totals after a bad weekend

Wagered: $531.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $240.85
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My two picks this weekend combined to finish ahead of one horse

I'm especially upset with myself about the Alabama. The winner was a huge overlay at 7-1 and my top choice (Julia Shining) was a huge underlay at about 4-1. In my write up (and in the Alabama thread) I identified the eventual winner as a serious win candidate, and used her on top of my choice in exactas, but ignored the juicy price, which was inexcusable.
Fell in love with my top choice and was too rigid in my thinking, costing myself a score. Halfway through the race I realized how dumb that was.

Anyway, it's Travers week - see y'all Wednesday

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $531.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $240.85
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

23 Aug - Race 7
No really strong opinions on the card so I'm going to take a shot on the #1 Good Skate. Maker not having a great meet but isn't having a David Donk meet either, and Irad stays aboard.
Best dirt numbers are at 10f and 11f, and he ran well on turf last time at 11f, so I'm hoping he can handle the extra 1/4m today. Barn does well getting runners to go these longer distances.
Up in class and facing the horse who easily handled him last time, but he will surely save ground and may keep on chugging along for a piece.

$3 ex: 5 w 1
$2 ex: 2-4-8 w 1
$8 win: 1 (cutoff odds will be 9-2)
($17 bet)

good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

23 Aug - Race 7
No really strong opinions on the card so I'm going to take a shot on the #1 Good Skate. Maker not having a great meet but isn't having a David Donk meet either, and Irad stays aboard.
Best dirt numbers are at 10f and 11f, and he ran well on turf last time at 11f, so I'm hoping he can handle the extra 1/4m today. Barn does well getting runners to go these longer distances.
Up in class and facing the horse who easily handled him last time, but he will surely save ground and may keep on chugging along for a piece.

$3 ex: 5 w 1
$2 ex: 2-4-8 w 1
$8 win: 1 (cutoff odds will be 9-2)
($17 bet)

good luck

Went off below my minimum odds cutoff - will substitute a small play...

Race 8
$2 ex: 4-11 w 6
$5 win: 6
($9 bet)

[PhantomOnTour]

Wagered: $540.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $231.85
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After a good longshot win/ex to start last week I've been on the skids. Hoping to right the ship today.

Aug 24 - Race 6
I doubt the 8-1 ML will hold on #9 Fauci, who loves minor awards. I'm wary of betting him but the pace shake out should play right into his closing style, and the return of Prat is a big plus. He has a bad habit of switching back to his wrong lead late in his races, which has probably cost him some wins. Second race off a long layoff, and if he can return to his usual high 80's to low 90's Beyer fig it should get him a piece today.
Never off the board at Sar, barn going well this meet, race flow in his favor, let's go.

$1 tri: 5 w 9 w 2-3-4-6-8
$2 ex: 2/2b-6 w 9
$9 win: 9 (cutoff odds will be 4-1)
($18 bet)

Nice card today - good luck

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Wagered: $540.00
Returned: $771.85
Total: + $231.85
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After a good longshot win/ex to start last week I've been on the skids. Hoping to right the ship today.

Aug 24 - Race 6
I doubt the 8-1 ML will hold on #9 Fauci, who loves minor awards. I'm wary of betting him but the pace shake out should play right into his closing style, and the return of Prat is a big plus. He has a bad habit of switching back to his wrong lead late in his races, which has probably cost him some wins. Second race off a long layoff, and if he can return to his usual high 80's to low 90's Beyer fig it should get him a piece today.
Never off the board at Sar, barn going well this meet, race flow in his favor, let's go.

$1 tri: 5 w 9 w 2-3-4-6-8
$2 ex: 2/2b-6 w 9
$9 win: 9 (cutoff odds will be 4-1)
($18 bet)

Nice card today - good luck

Amending the above bet to include the #4...

$1 tri: 5 w 9 w 2-3-4-6-8
$2 ex: 2/2b-4-6 w 9
$9 win: 9
($20 bet)