Arkansas Derby

[bisket]

The puzzle for handicappers has become a more difficult in recent derbies and I think will be more common in future derbies. How do you deal with the fastest horse being an unfinished product? In the Fla. Derby the most talented horse got the dream trip and blew the doors off the the other potential entrants. In the Arkansas Derby the most talented horse freaked out before reaching the stabling area and bulled his way to the front in the race and finished up the track. lol what are the chances Fierceness goes untouched to a 24, 48, 112 early fractions in the derby? What are the chances Timberlake acts like a professional before and during the race? I’d say the chances are much lower in the circus of the pre race in derby. The chances are much less a horse gets the dream trip in a 20 horse field. I think the chances are greater that bit of them finish out of the tri than both will be in it.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I thought the Lukas place horse ran a great race and had enough closing energy to consider, at what promises to be a decent price, for gimmicks in Louisville. The rest are probably tosses.

I think He’s going to be my key. I think the coach can pull off one more

[burnsy]

Good horses don’t always “get” dream trips they make them happen . I don’t really think Fierceness needs the lead . Just be up there , stalking is probably better anyway . The other three preps had some sloppy running and gate problems . Whoever works that out will have a chance . If Chad Browns horse gets it together he will be tough but somewhat at the mercy of the pace . The last two years saw long shots get the right pace , trip and close . Never to be seen in the winners circle again. How likely will it be three in a row ? Because before that Stalking , low price horses had been winning . I’ve seen Jokers on here try to make an argument that pace doesn’t matter . I don’t see how you handicap that way . These days the easiest way to steal these longer races is when there’s no aggression to make the lead . And if it comes up rain . Whole new race .

[Vinnie]

You are so right about pace. Projected and actual pace in any given horse race are of immense importance. I always loved the saying/axiom "It isn't how fast a horse runs, but, how a horse runs fast"!