My Breeders' Cup Bet Back List

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, so after the Breeders' Cup, I posted on here that I thought I'd do something I have never done before. Create a stable alert list of horses I thought were negatively impacted by what I think was a pretty clear early speed bias on Breeders' Cup Friday/Saturday at Santa Anita.

The first of those horses has been entered to run Saturday at Hollywood (not a track known to be kind to speed horses, so take that for what it's worth).

In any event, I intend to use this thread to see how my horses off this list perform.

First up...Conkate...entered in the 8th race at Hollywood on Saturday.

[sammy the sage]

a good interesting thread to start...bit of a red board...my 1st was Il Villiano...who just ran not so hot at Penn...

Thought 2 back...dead rail...last at cup...just the opposite...a victim of inside speed bias...guess he's just not good enough.

Any other's show up...I'll post...

Fri...like Take Charge Indy...last was just a tightener...hope he's good enough...not Breeder's but a Derby bet back...

Curious...don't remember the horse you're posting about...any particular reason why?

[PaceAdvantage]

Conkate ran on the under card BC Friday...

[windoor]

I do something similar, in that I track horses that I played to win, but for what ever reason, they did not hit the board. If they ran fourth or better, I just count it as a loss and move on. I see it as a contender that wasn't quite good enough.

If they at least showed a little early speed (or had an obvious excuse) during the race, I'll play them the next time out. Regardless of any other handicapping factors and doing nothing other than that, I still get a decent hit rate and an above average odd. Works for me.

Regards,

Windoor

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Conkate ran on the under card BC Friday...

guess I wasn't clear...and I can see why in hindsight.

Just wondered why Conkate was a bet back?

[sammy the sage]

Would a bet against horse count here...Groupie Doll ran a lifetime monster race AGAINST the bias in the BC...quick come back...on my list to bet against.

[Capper Al]

Are we using the BC races as key races and following the non-winners to their next race?

[lamboguy]

not that i would ever do this for breeders cup races, but this is one of the best ways to play horses. you figure out when a horse has a disadvantage with the track bias and play the horse the next time.

i have a horse in today at Parx that i loved, he is training great. but i heard the maintenance crew added more dirt to the track. i am now going to pass on betting on this horse today and wait for a better day. i drew the rail and expect it to be dead as a door knob.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Are we using the BC races as key races and following the non-winners to their next race?

I am using races on that Friday and Saturday where I saw horses show something DESPITE running against the perceived bias.

What is "something?" A halfway decent finish...a "move"...something gleaned off the charts...this isn't science...it's more art...and thus more prone to failure...

And like I said, I've never done anything like this before.

Got a stable alert on another one...NORTHERN IOWA is entered in Sunday's 8th race at Hollywood.

I will be keeping track of WPS ROI regardless of post time odds.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

not that i would ever do this for breeders cup races, but this is one of the best ways to play horses. you figure out when a horse has a disadvantage with the track bias and play the horse the next time.

i have a horse in today at Parx that i loved, he is training great. but i heard the maintenance crew added more dirt to the track. i am now going to pass on betting on this horse today and wait for a better day. i drew the rail and expect it to be dead as a door knob.

the rail did get me yesterday, he run on the inside the whole way around the track and got aced at the wire. that's the life of a hustler, just another missed opportunity.

my old saying, "loss of opportunity is better than loss of capital"

[nijinski]

Would you give Coil another shot in the Cigar ? Bafferts shipping and the field looks skimmed down to five .

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't like Coil much in the Cigar..he doesn't seem to have much in the way of any advantages...he doesn't look to be able to get away early and his closing ability ranks near the bottom of this short field.

I like Hymn Book a lot here...I think he's the only one who is going to be worth betting, although Stay Thirsty is now a huge threat to win it all. I also give Groupie Doll a shot, but think she will be way overbet.

So my pick in the Cigar is Hymn Book.

[nijinski]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]I don't like Coil much in the Cigar..he doesn't seem to have much in the way of any advantages...he doesn't look to be able to get away early and his closing ability ranks near the bottom of this short field.

I like Hymn Book a lot here...I think he's the only one who is going to be worth betting, although Stay Thirsty is now a huge threat to win it all. I also give Groupie Doll a shot, but think she will be way overbet.

So my pick in the Cigar is Hymn Book.

Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book are certainly up to it. I was looking for a price and I know Coil didn't get a great shot in at the BC . I questioned Baffert shipping and that was one of the factors .
Good Luck on your picks!

[PaceAdvantage]

What an awful pick by me in the Cigar...

Hopefully my bet backs do a little better this weekend...

[PaceAdvantage]

I think when Andy Serling mentioned on-air today how things posted on message boards are undoubtedly wrong, he was talking about my pick in the Cigar...