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05-08-2019, 11:53 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 565
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Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figure
Did I miss the BSF for the Derby? Or has Andy been too busy arguing that MS should not have come down to release his figures yet?
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05-08-2019, 11:56 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keithw84
Did I miss the BSF for the Derby? Or has Andy been too busy arguing that MS should not have come down to release his figures yet?
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99
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05-08-2019, 11:58 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 983
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By comparison. Mitole got a 106 in the Churchill Downs S., Mia Mischief got a 99 in the Humana Distaff, Mr Money a 92 in the Pat Day Mile.
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05-08-2019, 12:47 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turfnsport
By comparison. Mitole got a 106 in the Churchill Downs S., Mia Mischief got a 99 in the Humana Distaff, Mr Money a 92 in the Pat Day Mile.
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I figured it wouldn't be a big figure. All the better horses had terrible trips. The way the race was run was not conducive to fast times. Pace was very irregular - Fast early, very slow middle, fast late. Same as we saw in last years Travers. Many horses were crazy wide. Game Winner was like 10 wide on the far turn. This will need a pace and ground loss analysis to give a better picture.
Last edited by bobphilo; 05-08-2019 at 12:58 PM.
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05-08-2019, 12:57 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
I figured it wouldn't be a big figure. All the better horses had terrible trips. The way the race was run was not conducive to fast times. This will need a pace and ground loss analysis to give a better picture.
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I am not sure these 3 year olds are very good, either....
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05-08-2019, 01:04 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I am not sure these 3 year olds are very good, either....
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Could be, but a lot of good horses ran much worse than their usual figures. I never judge a horse based on a poor Derby performance. This race is just too crazy.
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05-08-2019, 03:25 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
Could be, but a lot of good horses ran much worse than their usual figures. I never judge a horse based on a poor Derby performance. This race is just too crazy.
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cant find much of a trip excuse for Improbable or Win Win Win.
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05-08-2019, 04:03 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,415
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
cant find much of a trip excuse for Improbable or Win Win Win.
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He really had no where to go. I think because of this he had to get running later than he wanted to. He had a seam which closed quickly when maximum security veered in.
I’m not going to say the horse would’ve won with a perfect trip though. But I don’t think it was that good of a trip but it wasn’t awful either
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05-08-2019, 06:21 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
cant find much of a trip excuse for Improbable or Win Win Win.
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Seven horses were within a four and a half lengths of MS. Not much separation with this troupe. Improbable's line looks similar to the one Oxbow put up in the 2013 Derby. It's one I look for in a potential Preakness upset, not that he'd be much of an upset if he's not the outright favorite should he run.
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05-08-2019, 06:21 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
cant find much of a trip excuse for Improbable or Win Win Win.
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I'll have to watch the video on these 2. There are still a lot of horses who really underperformed based on their previous races. Game Winner in particular lost an awful lot more ground than the 3 3/4 lengths he was beaten by. Others were Tacitus, War of Will, Vekoma, Tax, Roadster, Long Range Toddy in addition to Improbable and Win Win Win. It is highly unlikely that that many horses would all go off form in one race. The only top horse who ran his race was Maximum Security who was away in front of that disaster of a race behind him. With a field this huge it's impossible for a chart maker to see all the trouble. I learned a long time ago to discount a poor Derby Performance whether the excuse was spotted or not. The Derby is often a whole different thing than a normal horse race.
Last edited by bobphilo; 05-08-2019 at 06:24 PM.
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05-08-2019, 06:26 PM
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#11
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
The Derby is often a whole different thing than a normal horse race.
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True.
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05-08-2019, 07:56 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,415
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Improbable straight up ran an even race.
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05-08-2019, 08:13 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195
Improbable straight up ran an even race.
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good description. He was climbing a bit early, I dont think he wants to be inside horses like he has his last couple races. that being said its not a trip that I would upgrade him for.
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05-08-2019, 08:59 PM
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#14
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Improbable ran a lot worse than I expected that he would.
Irad secured position, and then was very patient. He had to wait a couple times behind a wall of horses, but he was empty late, and swapped leads near the wire.
It's possible that the kickback, and the lack of momentum/flow discouraged him enough to hurt his performance significantly. It's also very possible that I overestimated his ability. He's not some horse that I feel is a 'lock' to beat this field in 10 days.
He's a little bit on the small side, and there are some pedigree questions regarding a classic distance.
I'd love to see a workout before the Preakness.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-08-2019, 10:52 PM
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#15
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Improbable ran a lot worse than I expected that he would.
Irad secured position, and then was very patient. He had to wait a couple times behind a wall of horses, but he was empty late, and swapped leads near the wire.
It's possible that the kickback, and the lack of momentum/flow discouraged him enough to hurt his performance significantly. It's also very possible that I overestimated his ability. He's not some horse that I feel is a 'lock' to beat this field in 10 days.
He's a little bit on the small side, and there are some pedigree questions regarding a classic distance.
I'd love to see a workout before the Preakness.
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Also a distance question with him. He really flattened out late.
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