Handicapping Tournament Questions

[barn32]

Winning a handicapping tournament requires that you bet and win with longshots. If you don't hit any longshots, you've got big problems. But is that the best way to determine a good handicapper?

Isn't there a better way to structure a tournament, that requires a lot of skill, but doesn't necessarily mean you have to hit a bunch of long shots to be the winner?

Or to put it another way. I'm guessing that most if not all of the handicappers who play in these things don't bet their real money the same way that they bet in a tournament.

[Robes]

The rules of these tournaments,make them nothing more than stabbing contests,that's why I don't play in them,when I feel like stabbing I go to my local 7/11 and buy some scratch tickets,and play the daily p3😂😂😂😂

[ArlJim78]

Longshots are capped at 20 to 1 in the contests I've been playing in.
You're not going to fare well or win consistently by simply stabbing at longshots. Most people shoot for a blend of medium and longer prices.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by barn32

Winning a handicapping tournament requires that you bet and win with longshots. If you don't hit any longshots, you've got big problems. But is that the best way to determine a good handicapper?

Isn't there a better way to structure a tournament, that requires a lot of skill, but doesn't necessarily mean you have to hit a bunch of long shots to be the winner?

Or to put it another way. I'm guessing that most if not all of the handicappers who play in these things don't bet their real money the same way that they bet in a tournament.

That's right, they're structuring this tournament so that players are making picks they wouldn't necessarily bet in real life. Some of these tourneys have nothing to do with 'real life' handicapping. If they capped winners at, say, 15 bucks, nobody's going to run away with it on a lucky 20-1. If a 20-1 wins the first race of the day at 9:35 am and a group of people go crazy, you know you're already beaten, helpless feeling and not a fun feeling, you want to enjoy the day and feel like you always got a shot till the end, capping at a lower number than 20/1 creates more of a skill feel to the contest.

[TBD]

At first appearance contest play may look like a stab for long shots. It depends on what your looking to get out of the contest. Some have a prize for most winners. Going for this prize instead of the top prize is better for me. This being said, don’t most handicappers enjoy the occasional long shot win. I mean don’t you feel you a greater since of accomplishment when your right and the crowd is wrong. I play contests that are lengthy, not just one racing day and are free. I find that these are not just stabbing for long shots. If you try that angle you will quickly be out. Also, I have found that if I make a change to my handicapping process and use a contest to evaluate that change I receive different data back than if I used my usual methods of evaluation because it takes me out of my comfort zone.

[barn32]

The way I see it whoever picks the right long shots wins the tournament.

[Viruss]

This is why I like the lockdown tournaments on Derbywars. You make all your picks before the 1st race.

Earl J

[Stillriledup]

A very popular handicapping tourney is the nfl super book season long contest in the nfl at the Las Vegas Hilton or lvh or west gate or where've they're calling themselves these days. That tournament is not odds based its 'picking winners' based as all 'horses' are 9/10 odds. There's point spreads involved obviously but oddswise everyone is essentially a 4/5 shot and who picks most winners wins. You can't pull out a 20-1 in week 17 to pass 42 people who are ahead of you.

[Si2see]

It's funny most of you have this opinion on contests and long shots. To take my tournament play to the next level I have actually been working and focusing on picking better logical horses and favorites. Finding Long shots have never been an issue to me, it's building a balanced entry that is the hard part.

Jason

[Capper Al]

Funny. I earlier started a thread on a similar topic today. One needs to be a good win bet player and be able to pick longshots. And then on top of that they'll need to get lucky to separate themselves from the other good longshot players. I can see that a profitable exotic player may not stand a chance in the typical tournament.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

A very popular handicapping tourney is the nfl super book season long contest in the nfl at the Las Vegas Hilton or lvh or west gate or where've they're calling themselves these days. That tournament is not odds based its 'picking winners' based as all 'horses' are 9/10 odds. There's point spreads involved obviously but oddswise everyone is essentially a 4/5 shot and who picks most winners wins. You can't pull out a 20-1 in week 17 to pass 42 people who are ahead of you.

this is the biggest sports betting contest on the planet. Great contest, its beyond maddening, ultra competitive and requires major intestinal fortitude over the 17 week season. I've played in a smaller contest (200 people or so) that mirrors the lvh contest. Great times

[barn32]

In a typical big horseracing tournament, if you win with every bullet at 3 to 1, how do you think you would end up doing?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by barn32

The way I see it whoever picks the right long shots wins the tournament.

They also have a pretty good day at the track.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by barn32

In a typical big horseracing tournament, if you win with every bullet at 3 to 1, how do you think you would end up doing?

You would win, no doubt about it!

[barn32]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

You would win, no doubt about it!

I'm not so sure, but it might be close to 50/50.