Derby odds

[Aerocraft67]

Anyone have the Oaks/Derby will pays? Or maybe $2.4 million in the win pool is enough to make some reliable observations.

Reincarnate up to seventh choice at 16-1. That's a surprise. He was interesting at 30-1, but half that? No thanks.

Still not very interested in Verifying, but he's drifted up to reasonable territory near 20-1.

Still am interested in Mage, not getting attention at 20-1. He's drifted up to Confidence Game, who factored to be a bit cheaper.

22 Mandarin Hero getting passed over, above 25-1. I'll take some of that.

Disarm doesn't seem to reflect the buzz he was generating, just a bit below the 30-1 ML.

Hit Show has been in the longshot conversation, well above 30-1 ML now.

The second-tier chalk (, , ) took a little more money, which isn't a surprise.

[boys at tosconova]

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couldn't fit kr


https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...erby-live-odds

[keithw84]

Pretty surprised by some of the odds, especially on Reincarnate.

I made my "value line" - i.e. worth a look if they are at those odds or better, and this is what I came up with: (Just my opinion, made some guesses on chance of winning, factored in track takeout, etc.)

Angel of Empire & Forte: 4-1
Tapit Trice & Derma Sotogake: 8-1
Verifying: 11-1
Two Phil's & Mandarin Hero: 13-1
Kingsbarn, Disarm, Mage: 23-1
Raise Cain: 32-1
Hit Show: 41-1
Reincarnate, King Russell, Confidence Game, Rocket Can, Cyclone Mischief, Sun Thunder, Jace's Road: 82-1

I don't think those last ones are all exactly equal... I just gave them each 1% chance to win.

[burnsy]

Keithw 85 mines very similar. I like it . With the exception of Kingsbarns. I’m tempted to use him at 10-1. And I don’t know what to really think about the Japanese horse. Although Mandarin Hero might be a look too . I also don’t give from Raise Cain down in your list much if a chance . In this modern day of sort of predictable derbies I’ll go against a result like last year . I don’t get as technical about take out when I look . I just try to ballpark in my mind what a fair price should be without bias. Trying not to be a fan of one horse . Of course , like everyone I’m looking for the ones that are higher than I think they should be .

[Nitro]

You might want to compare your thoughts with the actual current odds which of course are based on just the Win pool as of 10 PM EST.

https://www.twinspires.com/bet/progr...hbred/12/pools