Santa Anita Derby

[classhandicapper]

I wish there was a 4th horse in the race because there are some questions in my mind about both favorites, but taking a maiden graduate moving up against much tougher and stretching out this much is hardly my ideal.

[jay68802]

Been over this race a few times now. Forbidden Kingdom is the pick. And just to have some $ on the race will play a exacta: / and wait and see the will pays to know how much to play the / exacta as a back up. Will take a small swing with the in a double or pick 3.

Feels like trying to get blood out of a rock.

[Robert Fischer]

team Baffert is hungry

No direct Derby entrants right now.

these men are some hard-hitters who used to participating in the Kentucky Derby.
Hence, the barn transfers etc...

We saw the blueprint in the Bob Hope Stakes for their tactics here.

Forbidden Kingdom is going.
Taiba will be dueling under Mike Smith. Some brilliance, but the main thing is that he presses the pace.
Messier is on a roll, and will be tracking the duel. Keeping it together. Running his race to try to get 40pts and get some the spotlight.
Win the Day will save ground so that he can pass tired rivals and try to get 3rd, or 2nd if lucky.

[f2tornado]

I took another look at this race. Odd stat of the day is Mandella has yet to win this event, but, Forbidden Kingdom is a blazer. The Brisnet pace figures are reminiscent of Battle of Midway five years ago. Ridiculous early and below par late. This time, he has credible horses and pilots to deal with. I cannot envision JV or Smith allowing this horse to get too loose. It's just a matter of how much horse they have late. A repeat of last out and Messier makes a stretch pass to win this feature. A repeat of any other race and he settles for less. Taiba is well bred and fast through 6F but untested beyond. Still like the most here, but have enough doubt to not double first any wager.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I wish there was a 4th horse in the race because there are some questions in my mind about both favorites, but taking a maiden graduate moving up against much tougher and stretching out this much is hardly my ideal.

Horses like this never run well, they almost always run closer to last.

[zico20]

It is a match race with four slugs to round it out. Look at it like this, it is a four horse $150,000 allowance race, with the winner of the four getting around $75,000 for beating the other three. If there were three more quality horses in here none of these would have entered. I like Forbidden Kingdom to wire the field.

[keithw84]

Why are the CA fields so small (especially compared to Oaklawn, Fair Grounds)?

I know the Baffert suspension has thrown a wrench in things, but it seems like the fields in the CA races have been small the last few years. (Just going off memory here. I'm sure someone has the data at their fingertips)

[letswastemoney]

I'd be surprised if they all just let Forbidden Kingdom secure an easy lead. Which one of the Yakteen runners is sacrificed?

Armagnac couldn't keep up with Forbidden Kingdom last time. Maybe the inexperienced Taiba is sent to endure a harsh lesson in surviving a fast pace by attempting to contest the lead with Forbidden Kingdom, with Messier stalking behind them.

So I'll pick Messier. This stinks as a betting race though.

[zico20]

I am stunned by that performance by Taiba. One of two things happen in the Derby. Either he gets a good trip and wins like the superstar he could become or he finishes out of the top 10. No way does he run second or third. It will be all or nothing. He should improve once again by leaps and bounds on his third start. If he would happen to win the Derby is there any need to run the Preakness and Belmont because he is the Triple Crown winner. Messier clearly needed that race being off two months and should move forward again. Forbidden Kingdom won't run, he is a miler.

[Curln22]

Win the Derby of only 2 starts?
Team Bafteen will really be shoving it up the industries ass hard if he does.

This horse did not get any dirt on him whatsoever today.
If he draws outside I like his chances much more.

[jay68802]

That's three year old racing. Thought Forbidden was the horse. Fooled again. Not the first time. Is he just a need the lead type? Got pushed here and fell apart. Messier has two wins on tracks that favored him and just good runs other wise. In my mind Taiba beat that. He won gamely and that's a plus. Think I need more time to form a opinion.

[BIG RED]

Originally Posted by keithw84

Why are the CA fields so small

exactly, sad

[Robert Fischer]

i think I misjudged the points...

even so, I incorrectly thought Taiba would be forward to wear down Forbidden Kingdom. I think messier still gets in? was disapointing effort to me, but credit Taiba for the ease in which he did it, and in is brilliant debut race and works.

Messier was set up to get top points in this prep by tactics against FK, so I figured they'd waste a race for Taiba (i'm not in the 'oh it will ruin him' camp), but they didn't and if i can comprhrehend the rules i may see both elidgibel


not a big physical standout at least from persepctives and camera anagles, Pbuthe is brilliant and doesn't tire. mixed emotions, and messiers weak race today in a short field of clowns and a didsapointnig contender didn't tell me anything other than distance in ideal sitaution is of no concern.

he at at least we have 1. 1. freaking mildly interesting contender from the west.
Messier was fringe and had one inflated fig with large margin that was gettign hype. Forbidden kINGDOWN WAS A LOOSE SPEED WHO ALSO HAPPENED TO BE AESTHEIC. ... ,

[burnsy]

I don’t really bet Santa Anita but I was watching. Messier is a good looking horse but he was on empty at the end which makes me question 10 furlongs for him. It’s a whole new world the way they train and enter these horses for the Derby run. There is one contender with two races and another with three starts going into May.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Impressive race by Taiba.

Still a lot of greenness to him, and he was lucky that wasn't a 10 to 12 horse field.

Have some serious questions about him in a 20 horse field. Could be the most talented horse in the gate like Curlin was in 2007, but not get it done due to immaturity of racing.