Handicapping Tournament Questions

[stringmail]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

thanks for the discussion Vic.

would you play differently if you actually had to bet that 430 on horses in a real money contest as opposed to competing against other players in a fantasy contest.

lets say you managed to turn your 430 into 2000 in 4th place before the last race of the contest. Leader has 5000.

Its the last race, how much of your 2K would you put up to win the whole thing.

Its a little different strategy wise than your fantasy bets where you bankroll won't decrease.

thanks

Allan

I know this was directed towards Vic but the key variable that is not known in your scenario is the purse prize but it is also dependent on your goal when you entered. Was it to win?

If the purse prize is $10K for first and you betting a 2-1 shot to get you to 6000 (from your current 2K standing) will get you the win, you've created a 7-1 overlay ($6K+$10K) so logically it makes sense to bet rather than sitting tight.

The $430 is a sunk cost. You lose the bet, you didn't lose 2000, you lost $430 which is what you were willing to lose originally.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by stringmail

The "rake" on this event seems absurd. I'm surprised to see anyone buy in as opposed to trying to win your way in through a satellite. Purse prize payout of $250K ($200K cash and $50K in entries) when they will collect $300K seems a bit greedy on their part but they are entitled to make money.

I would rather play an event with 100% payback.

I'm interested in your reason for signing up directly. I get the allure of low turnout tourney, big prize, great venue but still...

I intend to try to qualify every opportunity that comes up. I played a qualifier on Horse Tourneys last Sunday. Finished 6th but we played for only one spot.

Been confused about whether or not CD is putting all fees back into the tourney. I read somewhere they were. But I also remember reading they would take $800. I didn't think that was exorbitant since we have a spot in a very nice room with buffet and drinks on both Oaks and Derby day.

I've played two live bankroll tourneys in the past year. One at Del Mar and one at Keeneland. They both returned 100%.

Any other place or any other days at Churchill I wouldn't play unless 100% was paid. I thought in this one instance since it's the Derby I was ok with the rake.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

thanks for the discussion Vic.

would you play differently if you actually had to bet that 430 on horses in a real money contest as opposed to competing against other players in a fantasy contest.

lets say you managed to turn your 430 into 2000 in 4th place before the last race of the contest. Leader has 5000.

Its the last race, how much of your 2K would you put up to win the whole thing.

Its a little different strategy wise than your fantasy bets where you bankroll won't decrease.

thanks

Allan

I've learned that when playing for live money you have to treat your dollars like chips.

Willing to do whatever it takes to finish in prize fund positions.

I've seen guys try to juggle not going all in and it doesn't seem to work.

When I'm playing I look at the bets as tournament strategy not as a bankroll.

[Si2see]

Originally Posted by arw629

If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

Post of the year nomination

[Si2see]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

I also favor live bankroll tournaments.

Lets see if you have the same chutzpah on a 20-1 shot with real money on the line.

Allan

Allan,

I have always respected your posts. I can tell you that I have been working on different strategies for each style of contest play. Although I have played several dozen more online win/place mythical tournaments, I am most excited about the win/place/show live money tournaments.

At the Laurel Champions tournament a few weeks ago I bought two entries when I arrived, I had 75% of my plays mapped out for the day and the other 25% would be based on strategy and where I needed to be. I had a very successful day and at one time had both entries in the top 15 and ready to pounce. I decided to get one entry into the top 10 to cash ( which I held on to 10th place ), and one entry I took a swing for the fences ( and struck out )

I can tell you that I played the same horses I would've played in a mythical contest, which were also the same horses I would've played with my own cash on any given Saturday afternoon.

Jason

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Si2see

Post of the year nomination

If that's POY material were in trouble.

And no there aren't better horseplayers than me, I'm the best who's ever done this.

Just ask me.

[cato]

Over the years the cash tournaments have morphed farther and farther away from anything resembling traditional handicapping and betting. A lot of people have used the following strategy to win a lot o' cash -

Preserve capital and then go all-in toward the end (a couple of times).

So if you have to bet 10 races a day at $200 a race, a lot of guys will bet a fave to place (or show if that's available), or take a low odds horse to win and then on day 2 start looking for some "all-in" races.

You have to be willing to lose it all in the last couple of races and in the bigger tournaments (especially if you bought in) that's a tough road to take (at least for me).

So I love the mythical wager tournaments. The bigger cash tournaments are great - but only if I qualified and I'm playing with their money.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by Si2see

Allan,

I have always respected your posts. I can tell you that I have been working on different strategies for each style of contest play. Although I have played several dozen more online win/place mythical tournaments, I am most excited about the win/place/show live money tournaments.

At the Laurel Champions tournament a few weeks ago I bought two entries when I arrived, I had 75% of my plays mapped out for the day and the other 25% would be based on strategy and where I needed to be. I had a very successful day and at one time had both entries in the top 15 and ready to pounce. I decided to get one entry into the top 10 to cash ( which I held on to 10th place ), and one entry I took a swing for the fences ( and struck out )

I can tell you that I played the same horses I would've played in a mythical contest, which were also the same horses I would've played with my own cash on any given Saturday afternoon.

Jason

Agree completely. ..the same horses I bet in real life are the same ones I back in tournaments

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If that's POY material were in trouble.

And no there aren't better horseplayers than me, I'm the best who's ever done this.

Just ask me.

You can prove that to at least me.

Heads up matches at DERBYWARS.

Any track, any amount, any day.

Just ask me.

[Si2see]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If that's POY material were in trouble.

It is the most honest post I have seen in a long time. ThIs game is filled with people who think or like to try to make people believe that they are an elite handicapper, yet so many of us loose day in and day out, year after year after year. I completely agree with arw629 there are some players that regardless of format seem like the elite players, which I believe also make up the 5% of actual winners theory.

Jason

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The winning total of most contests averages out at right around $8.00 per race.

$8 to $10 per race is supposedly the typical range based on what I've read.
Number of entrants and races has a big influence too.
Example I won a small feeder today against 8-9 people with $53.8 for 8 races.
That total wouldn't get me a cup of coffee against a field of 25 or more people.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

You can prove that to at least me.

Heads up matches at DERBYWARS.

Any track, any amount, any day.

Just ask me.

I don't play derby wars, as far as any amount or any track goes, I'm assuming you mean thoroughbred racing, right?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I'm assuming you mean thoroughbred racing, right?

Why would you assume that?

Oh, I see...you're trying once again to appear clever...

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Why would you assume that?

Oh, I see...you're trying once again to appear clever...

Because I haven't ever seen Vic talk about harness racing or greyhounds? I don't have to try and APPEAR to be clever, my posting brilliance speaks for itself.

[PIC6SIX]

You gentlemen forgot to mention the factor of tournament players using multiple entries. If one is such a good handicapper why do they need multiple entries in a contest?????? I have to laugh when I see someone with two, three or four entries not in the top fifty in a contest with two hundred entrants. I see bits of truths in each of the replies to this Tournament post. Considering all the grips about contests you have to still agree they are MUCH FUN.