Handicapping Tournament Questions

[barn32]

Originally Posted by arw629

If you think that horse tournaments are all luck and the only people that win are Longshot players who get lucky you're completely wrong....there is a reason you see the same names at the top of the tournament lists on a daily basis....so instead of crying about Longshots maybe humble yourself and realize there are better handicappers out there than yourself

You're argument is specious at best. These types of tournaments have existed for a long time and will continue to exist. My point in starting this thread was to see if there might be a consensus for a more skillful format. And who here is crying about hitting lucky longshots? Chip on your shoulder much?

No you do not see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis. The same argument you post above has been used for years in the poker world. Yes, for a while you see a lot of the same names at the top and then something funny happens. Those very same names disappear for a long time. And then some of them disappear altogether.

When the same people enter all of the tournaments, pay for expenses, entry fees, etc., then I seriously doubt many (if any) are long-term winners.

And don't forget many of them enter multiple times.

I can name two dozen people who were doing extremely well playing poker tournaments that have completely disappeared from the scene.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by barn32

You're argument is specious at best. These types of tournaments have existed for a long time and will continue to exist. My point in starting this thread was to see if there might be a consensus for a more skillful format. And who here is crying about hitting lucky longshots? Chip on your shoulder much?

No you do not see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis. The same argument you post above has been used for years in the poker world. Yes, for a while you see a lot of the same names at the top and then something funny happens. Those very same names disappear for a long time. And then some of them disappear altogether.

When the same people enter all of the tournaments, pay for expenses, entry fees, etc., then I seriously doubt many (if any) are long-term winners.

And don't forget many of them enter multiple times.

I can name two dozen people who were doing extremely well playing poker tournaments that have completely disappeared from the scene.

You DO IN FACT see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

It's not as much luck as its short sample variance. The longer the tourney the more likely the better players land near the top.

I'm agreeing with you. The elite capper guesses better at longshots. He doesn't just jump on a horse that's going off at 35/1 for the odds. He understands that the longshot is possible.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

You DO IN FACT see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis.

OK. The current format structure is the best one that's ever been devised, and there's no need whatsoever to try and come up with something better.

The same people are on the top of the list every day and win all of the tournaments and the day money.

So, since this issue has been resolved there is no further need for discussion.

Mike, please lock this thread.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by barn32

You're argument is specious at best. These types of tournaments have existed for a long time and will continue to exist. My point in starting this thread was to see if there might be a consensus for a more skillful format. And who here is crying about hitting lucky longshots? Chip on your shoulder much?

No you do not see the same names at the top of the tournament list on a daily basis. The same argument you post above has been used for years in the poker world. Yes, for a while you see a lot of the same names at the top and then something funny happens. Those very same names disappear for a long time. And then some of them disappear altogether.

When the same people enter all of the tournaments, pay for expenses, entry fees, etc., then I seriously doubt many (if any) are long-term winners.

And don't forget many of them enter multiple times.

I can name two dozen people who were doing extremely well playing poker tournaments that have completely disappeared from the scene.

Definitely not a chip on my shoulder...I signed up on horse tourneys a little over a year ago and had success....I decided this year to keep records....I usually play in the 8, 17, and 55 dollar pick and pray format and try to mix up my plays between short, medium, and long price horses....I've done 117 tournaments this year spending $2721 and have received $4480 in return ....I don't know how sustainable that is, but I have a hard time accepting that good pari-mutuel handicappers can't win tournaments....I attached my records

[arw629]

Not that anyone cares but the April 4th entrees are actually April 5th

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by arw629

Definitely not a chip on my shoulder...I signed up on horse tourneys a little over a year ago and had success....I decided this year to keep records....I usually play in the 8, 17, and 55 dollar pick and pray format and try to mix up my plays between short, medium, and long price horses....I've done 117 tournaments this year spending $2721 and have received $4480 in return ....I don't know how sustainable that is, but I have a hard time accepting that good pari-mutuel handicappers can't win tournaments....I attached my records

More importantly where do you get off having the temerity to post after Barn decided for all of us that no further posts were needed?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by arw629

Definitely not a chip on my shoulder...I signed up on horse tourneys a little over a year ago and had success....I decided this year to keep records....I usually play in the 8, 17, and 55 dollar pick and pray format and try to mix up my plays between short, medium, and long price horses....I've done 117 tournaments this year spending $2721 and have received $4480 in return ....I don't know how sustainable that is, but I have a hard time accepting that good pari-mutuel handicappers can't win tournaments....I attached my records

See you won an exacta-box tourney--nice

[arw629]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

More importantly where do you get off having the temerity to post after Barn decided for all of us that no further posts were needed?

I haven't been gelded yet

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

I like cash tournaments like the BC Betting Challenge plus a few others (Monmouth Park and Del Mar will have them and I think Hawthorne next week)..

I also favor live bankroll tournaments.

Lets see if you have the same chutzpah on a 20-1 shot with real money on the line.

Allan

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

I also favor live bankroll tournaments.

Lets see if you have the same chutzpah on a 20-1 shot with real money on the line.

Allan

Real Money? I get what you're saying. However the top players do have the chutzpah going.

When they get a check sent from DerbyWars the bank does give them real money when they cash it.

One way you do see the same players win all the time is head to head matchups.

Those can be for pretty big $$. I mostly play the $430 games. They have bigger as well.

What I like about those is if you're patient you can pick and choose your opponents. There are people I tend to avoid because they're just better than me or at least a very tough customer.

Often you'll see a brand new name. They tend to be ripe for the picking. Like the guy that comes to the Hold Em table and "throws a party".

Couple of days ago I registered and made plans to play the Ky. Derby betting challenge. We play on track at Churchill on both Oaks and Derby day.

Total buy in $20,000.

Seems pretty real to me

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Real Money? I get what you're saying. However the top players do have the chutzpah going.

When they get a check sent from DerbyWars the bank does give them real money when they cash it.

One way you do see the same players win all the time is head to head matchups.

Those can be for pretty big $$. I mostly play the $430 games. They have bigger as well.

What I like about those is if you're patient you can pick and choose your opponents. There are people I tend to avoid because they're just better than me or at least a very tough customer.

Often you'll see a brand new name. They tend to be ripe for the picking. Like the guy that comes to the Hold Em table and "throws a party".

Couple of days ago I registered and made plans to play the Ky. Derby betting challenge. We play on track at Churchill on both Oaks and Derby day.

Total buy in $20,000.

Seems pretty real to me

You live in a different universe than me (a mini-roller). Good luck!

[stringmail]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Couple of days ago I registered and made plans to play the Ky. Derby betting challenge. We play on track at Churchill on both Oaks and Derby day.

Total buy in $20,000.

Seems pretty real to me

The "rake" on this event seems absurd. I'm surprised to see anyone buy in as opposed to trying to win your way in through a satellite. Purse prize payout of $250K ($200K cash and $50K in entries) when they will collect $300K seems a bit greedy on their part but they are entitled to make money.

I would rather play an event with 100% payback.

I'm interested in your reason for signing up directly. I get the allure of low turnout tourney, big prize, great venue but still...

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by stringmail

The "rake" on this event seems absurd. I'm surprised to see anyone buy in as opposed to trying to win your way in through a satellite. Purse prize payout of $250K ($200K cash and $50K in entries) when they will collect $300K seems a bit greedy on their part but they are entitled to make money.

I would rather play an event with 100% payback.

I'm interested in your reason for signing up directly. I get the allure of low turnout tourney, big prize, great venue but still...

There are plenty of tournaments w 100 pct (or close) giveback, I would avoid the 'rake' ones myself.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

. I mostly play the $430 games.

thanks for the discussion Vic.

would you play differently if you actually had to bet that 430 on horses in a real money contest as opposed to competing against other players in a fantasy contest.

lets say you managed to turn your 430 into 2000 in 4th place before the last race of the contest. Leader has 5000.

Its the last race, how much of your 2K would you put up to win the whole thing.

Its a little different strategy wise than your fantasy bets where you bankroll won't decrease.

thanks

Allan