turf to dirt, and turf speed figures

[bertyruss]

A couple of questions:

1. Horses' turf figures seem generally higher than their dirt figures, but this shouldn't be, should it? Can anything general be said about making an adjustment?

2. Often trainers seem to put non-turf specialists on the turf for no very good (apparent) reason. Sometimes they may just be experimenting, at other times possibly hiding form or getting a horse into shape (but I have my doubts that this is true very often), or maybe there's nothing else in the condition book. My biggest difficulty here is handicapping a non-turf horse who comes off the turf after a try or two. Is it ready, or has the turf experiment signaled declining trainer confidence?

Thx.

[Tom]

You can adjust any figure to the scale of another, but horse are not equations, and they cannot run equally on them all. Strictly MHO, but if a dirt horses has a few turf lines, I just plain ignore them and treat them as workouts. Now, if the horse has shown this move before, you might get a clue by the numbers. Say a while ago, the horse ran turf to dirt and is doing it again. If the turf figs are higher this time than last, the coming dirt figs may be better on the switch as well - horse is in better form. Last time, say his turf figs were 66, 70 and he came back on dirt with a 77, and this time, his turf figs were 76, 79, he may well come back well above the 77 he did last time. His form is probably better this time and he might run in the 80's. Comparing the turf figs to each other for condition clues, rather than performance, can be helpful.

My rule of thumb, on dirt, I will use a dirt or poly fig. On Poly, I will use poly or turf figs. On Turf, I use only turf figs.

Understanding the horse's surface abilities, to me, is or important than the figs. Changing surfaces is a good catalyst of an improved performance.

[Robert Goren]

It seems to me that raw times are generally faster on the turf than on dirt. I have never figured out why, but then with all the moving around of the rails, I am not sure I would trust turf times too far anyway.

[JohnGalt1]

My rule of thumb, on dirt, I will use a dirt or poly fig. On Poly, I will use poly or turf figs. On Turf, I use only turf figs.

Understanding the horse's surface abilities, to me, is or important than the figs. Changing surfaces is a good catalyst of an improved performance.[/QUOTE]

That's exactly what I do and it works for me.

[cj]

It depends on the figures. Of course all horses don't run the same on all surfaces, but having completely redone all my speed charts and this year I'm finding a LOT more horses are versatile when it comes to surface than many believe.

[windoor]

I am always most interested in a dirt horse who ran his/her last race on the turf, and today back on the dirt.

Especially if it races today with a drop in class. Really don't care about the speed or pace numbers of the race on the turf at all. This is the beginning of a spot play.


Windoor

[Robert Fischer]

There are so many factors that can play a part.

If the horse is a good horse, and the trainer intent is there, I wouldn't worry about the surface so much.

An extreme example of that would be Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby. The horse was a good horse, and the intent made sense(purse, breeding value, owner prestige, etc...).
Then all you had to do was determine if the horse was some kind of turf only type, or whether his style and talent was versatile.

More commonly, a horse is switched from turf to dirt because he has "too much (early)speed" for turf, or he is getting healthy.

[rubicon55]

IMO I think some trainers are just better at switching surfaces than others. I have seen high percentage trainers do miserably with the surface switch while others win with regularity. I tend to prefer horses going from dirt to turf versus the other way around. Sometimes horses winning on dirt can carry that form into a turf race but I would look closely at the trainer percentages with this move or see if the horse ran well in the past on the surface switch scheme. If the horse is young I might look at the turf breeding a bit.