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View Poll Results: Are non winner class jump important for cheap claimers
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Very important
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16 |
38.10% |
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important
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20 |
47.62% |
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don't consider it
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6 |
14.29% |
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11-24-2012, 07:52 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
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Claiming level for cheap claimers
Yesterday my friend and I both had come up with the same horse in a race. These were $4500 claimers at FL. Our horse had won has last race and was moving from nw1 to nw2 and I didn't bet him. I told my friend why I didn't bet him was because of his class jump and he said he didn't look at that since they are all $4500 claimers. The horse finished next to last. I think that nw class jumps are important what do you think?
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11-24-2012, 08:02 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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The big question with claimers is are they fit. With a recent win within 30 days, the horse should be fit. Will they run the horse is another question. The class move up offers resistance. But if the higher class horses are not fit, then the horse moving up stands a very good chance. Perdicting these can be very profitable.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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11-24-2012, 08:03 AM
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#3
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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The movement from NW of 1 to NW of 2 is huge class jump at most tracks, but not all. The movement from NW of 2 to NW of 1 is also huge class drop at most tracks. It something I look for at places like Tampa.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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11-24-2012, 08:10 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
The big question with claimers is are they fit. With a recent win within 30 days, the horse should be fit. Will they run the horse is another question. The class move up offers resistance. But if the higher class horses are not fit, then the horse moving up stands a very good chance. Perdicting these can be very profitable.
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Al, I don't like to bet cheap claimers that won their last race under almost any conditions. I might bet him if a he had a big win and is coming back at the same level, but if they are they don't pay much.
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11-24-2012, 09:42 AM
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#5
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Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
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playing cheap claimers after a win is not a good idea they win but few and far between.
Maybe data guys have more info?
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11-24-2012, 10:57 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Anaheim,California
Posts: 4,675
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First of all, not sure of the question. By NW 1 does it mean a runner that has just won a maiden race or does it mean winning a race for NW2L? As almost all 'cappers know, repeating after breaking it's maiden is usually tough for a horse to do, but going from a NW2L to a NW3L is not quite so hard assuming the claiming price level remains the same. Horses coming off of fast easy wins coming back quickly and stepping up in class have long been one of my favorite type of plays, provided of course, it passes basic handicapping analysis. Thus a runner having just won a 8000 NW2L could be a solid play for me in a 10000 NW3L. Having competitive speed and pace figures is a must for these types in order to be a play.
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11-24-2012, 11:13 PM
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#7
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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If you have the Beyer Pars, they can be a good indicator of how hard the step up will be. The chapter in Davidowitz's book on this is pretty good.
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11-24-2012, 11:16 PM
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#8
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueShoe
First of all, not sure of the question. By NW 1 does it mean a runner that has just won a maiden race or does it mean winning a race for NW2L? As almost all 'cappers know, repeating after breaking it's maiden is usually tough for a horse to do, but going from a NW2L to a NW3L is not quite so hard assuming the claiming price level remains the same. Horses coming off of fast easy wins coming back quickly and stepping up in class have long been one of my favorite type of plays, provided of course, it passes basic handicapping analysis. Thus a runner having just won a 8000 NW2L could be a solid play for me in a 10000 NW3L. Having competitive speed and pace figures is a must for these types in order to be a play.
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The odds better be real good to bet that kind of horse. My general rule is that a NW2L 8000 is equal to NW3L 4000. Each movement up the condition ladder is a drop in half of claiming price. Generally 10000 NW3 races are filled horses who their NW2L race with a claiming price of 20000 or more. Most winners of 8000 NW2L never win that third race at any claiming price.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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11-25-2012, 05:41 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: massapequa park ny
Posts: 2,164
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
The odds better be real good to bet that kind of horse. My general rule is that a NW2L 8000 is equal to NW3L 4000. Each movement up the condition ladder is a drop in half of claiming price. Generally 10000 NW3 races are filled horses who their NW2L race with a claiming price of 20000 or more. Most winners of 8000 NW2L never win that third race at any claiming price.
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All very true all one needs to do is open the form,and look at all the horses entered in the conditioned claiming races.Very very few horses go thru their conditions with back to back wins,especially at the lower levels.Quinn stated in "the Handicappers Condition Book"..most conditioned claimers do not win their condition after stepping up until most of the other better horses on the grounds have won at the level.
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11-25-2012, 08:21 AM
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#10
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Refugee from Bowie
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,598
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And most NW's1 will never lose that condition.
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11-25-2012, 09:49 AM
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#11
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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This is my Beyer Par for older males at Tampa Bay - still a work in progress, but the data is based on decent sample sizes over 5-7 years.
This gives me a good idea where winners of each class might have the best shot next time out.
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11-25-2012, 10:15 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 404
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bob60566
playing cheap claimers after a win is not a good idea they win but few and far between.
Maybe data guys have more info?
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That is what my data tells me, and as a result I will throw out a last time winner unless he/she dropped in for a tag.
Windoor
__________________
Divide by "SEVEN"
And Remember
The numbers have hinges
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11-25-2012, 01:42 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 404
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Then again.
Curious about the number without using any of my spot play filters.
I looked at a small sample size of 5500 races and the results are much better than I thought they would be.
Over all tracks and all class's, the win percent was 16% with and average odd of 3 to 1.
For 5K claimers the results were 17.4% at 4 to 1. Go figure.
If ran 2nd last time out, the win percent goes up to 18.5, but the odd drops to 3 to 1.
I am pretty sure the results would be much different on a track to track basis, but there it is.
Windoor
__________________
Divide by "SEVEN"
And Remember
The numbers have hinges
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11-25-2012, 01:55 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,591
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by windoor
That is what my data tells me, and as a result I will throw out a last time winner unless he/she dropped in for a tag.
Windoor
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Stats maybe different for races with multiple last time wiinners vs races with a single last time winner.
Mike (Dr Beav)
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11-25-2012, 02:34 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 404
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TrifectaMike
Stats maybe different for races with multiple last time wiinners vs races with a single last time winner.
Mike (Dr Beav)
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Yes.
Using the same sample, if won last two starts,the win percent jumps to 24.9% with an average odd of 2.5 to 1. for 5K claimers.
Interesting.
Windoor
__________________
Divide by "SEVEN"
And Remember
The numbers have hinges
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