Rebate players, this question is for you

[PaceAdvantage]

When talking solely about domestic, popular rebate shops (not the ones lurking beneath the surface who are afraid to utter their names publicly, and who have agents skulking about via Private Message), how much of a LOSER can you be to have a rebate shop be able to push you over the edge into profitability?

What I'm asking is, how good of a loser do you have to be where the average rebate shop will make you a winner if you're making AVERAGE bets.

Let's make the question more difficult, and say you're a WIN BETTOR only.

How much of a loser can you afford to be and still have a popular shop (like a PTC or an IdaBet, etc) be able to push you into the plus column on WIN BETS only?

Can you be a 1.98 player? 1.95? 1.90? Something tells me 1.90 isn't doable.

What are the average rebates for WIN BETTORS at these shops, is what I guess I'm asking, for the AVERAGE player. The guy who bets maybe $10,000 a week, which I know isn't much at all in the grand scheme of rebate shops.

I'm just trying to get a baseline established here...I'm in the middle of developing a fairly prolific, mechanical and seemingly borderline profitable method and want to know where I should be at before considering making these plays through one of these rebate shops.

Shocking I know...but I have never signed up for a rebate shop before and am trying to get all my ducks in a row as far as gaining as much knowledge as possible, as I am often wont to do...

[oexplayer68]

At $10,000 per week, you should command top-tier or close to top-tier rebates at that level. You can expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 7% back on WPS. Rebates tend to be negotiable as well, depending on your level of play, so you may be able to do slightly better than that.

One prominent ADW offered me a flat 7% on WPS, and 10% on exotics at any and every track. Very simple to track, but the problem is I play only exotics at lower-level tracks, so this was actually not a good deal for me as I would be losing about 4% on average.

What you have to ask yourself Mike, is what sort of income will you be happy with, as well as what impact your wager will have on the pool. As you know, a $200 win bet at Prairie Meadows will make a big impact on your payoff, as opposed to making that same wager at Belmont. 10K a week at a net margin of 2 or 3% isn't going to do it for most people.

Personally, rebates have made me a consistent winner for 8 straight years, and I would absolutely leave the game if they went away. My business model involves having an ROI that consistently runs in the neighborhood of 98%, and capturing rebates on exotics that average about 14%. I'm very price sensitive, so I definitely do business with whoever gives me the best rate, with very little concern for actual takeout.

Good luck with your method!

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

When talking solely about domestic, popular rebate shops (not the ones lurking beneath the surface who are afraid to utter their names publicly, and who have agents skulking about via Private Message), how much of a LOSER can you be to have a rebate shop be able to push you over the edge into profitability?

What I'm asking is, how good of a loser do you have to be where the average rebate shop will make you a winner if you're making AVERAGE bets.

Let's make the question more difficult, and say you're a WIN BETTOR only.

How much of a loser can you afford to be and still have a popular shop (like a PTC or an IdaBet, etc) be able to push you into the plus column on WIN BETS only?

Can you be a 1.98 player? 1.95? 1.90? Something tells me 1.90 isn't doable.

What are the average rebates for WIN BETTORS at these shops, is what I guess I'm asking, for the AVERAGE player. The guy who bets maybe $10,000 a week, which I know isn't much at all in the grand scheme of rebate shops.

I'm just trying to get a baseline established here...I'm in the middle of developing a fairly prolific, mechanical and seemingly borderline profitable method and want to know where I should be at before considering making these plays through one of these rebate shops.

Shocking I know...but I have never signed up for a rebate shop before and am trying to get all my ducks in a row as far as gaining as much knowledge as possible, as I am often wont to do...

[baconswitchfarm]

You still have to be a really good player to win with the rebate. Once you begin playing with a large rebate you will be stunned at how much you can handle. Rebates are like auctions, as a player you are worth what someone is willing to pay. The more you bet, the better deal you can work out. There are places out there who will work on the tiniest of margins to keep the action of their largest players. Good hunting.

[mlbelang]

What is the best online site for an average joe in terms of rebates?

Im talking no more than 3 thousand a month in wagering.

I think i saw offtrackbetting.com gives you like 2.5 or 3 % in WPS which seemed pretty good. Obviosuly if you are betting that 10k a week as above has mentioned, you should be getting at least half the % that the tack is "taking out". WPS ~ 7.5% Exotics ~10% Pick4/5/6 ~ 13%

Pretty interesting point, that a win bettor managing a 0.98 $1 ROI could actually be a winner based on rebates. Really puts into perspective how hard it is to beat the natural disadvantage of track takeout.

[PaceAdvantage]

In hindsight, 10k a week is a bit much...lol

Maybe somewhere between 5 and 10 is more realistic at this point. I wouldn't be making HUGE bets...just betting LOTS of races...

50 races at $20/race every day is something like 7k a week...it all adds up pretty quickly when you're betting a lot of races.

[Charli125]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

In hindsight, 10k a week is a bit much...lol

Maybe somewhere between 5 and 10 is more realistic at this point. I wouldn't be making HUGE bets...just betting LOTS of races...

50 races at $20/race every day is something like 7k a week...it all adds up pretty quickly when you're betting a lot of races.

If you're betting only to win, then you can easily, through ADW's that advertise and are 100% above board, get 4-5%. That means anything above 1.96 is profit. It depends greatly on tracks though. If you're playing a lot of CA, you won't get a rebate. If you're playing Penn National, you'll get a huge rebate.

[Trackside Trish]

You mention that you are preparing to launch a platform and are seeking a rebate site that isn't under the radar. You mention two sites by name. I would like to add the name of one that has entry level rebates posted on the site for every track and every type of bet. This site also reviews each player and if they are consistent and play more than average or casually they raise those incentives.
They are very personalized and pro player, as the owner is a horseplayer himself and believes the way to keep horseracing healthy is to give back as much as possible to the player. If you are shopping, check out Darkhorsebet. They have great sign up bonuses as well.

[windoor]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

In hindsight, 10k a week is a bit much...lol

Maybe somewhere between 5 and 10 is more realistic at this point. I wouldn't be making HUGE bets...just betting LOTS of races...

50 races at $20/race every day is something like 7k a week...it all adds up pretty quickly when you're betting a lot of races.

My record for the third quarter was 72 win wagers on one day at $40 each.
Lots of tracks running that time of year.

I do not use rebates.

Windoor

[cato]

I'm not sure what your point is except with a 5% rebate you could have had an extra $144 in your pocket for that day alone.

That seems significant over a period of time

Best, Frank

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

In hindsight, 10k a week is a bit much...lol

Maybe somewhere between 5 and 10 is more realistic at this point. I wouldn't be making HUGE bets...just betting LOTS of races...

50 races at $20/race every day is something like 7k a week...it all adds up pretty quickly when you're betting a lot of races.

I couldn't find 50 races a quarter worth betting

[windoor]

Originally Posted by cato

I'm not sure what your point is except with a 5% rebate you could have had an extra $144 in your pocket for that day alone.

That seems significant over a period of time

Best, Frank

Just that a fairly small wager can represent a sizable investment over time if you play a lot of tracks.

And: There are times when a paper trail can be a disadvantage.

Regards,

Windoor.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by windoor

Just that a fairly small wager can represent a sizable investment over time if you play a lot of tracks.

And: There are times when a paper trail can be a disadvantage.

Regards,

Windoor.

Yuh. Like bragging on an Interent forum how much you are winning?

[cato]

"And: There are times when a paper trail can be a disadvantage."

---> Only if you're (i) committing a crime, (ii) cheating on a spouse

Good luck with that.

[davew]

how do you not leave a paper trail?

do you sit at a track that simultcasts and buy tickets with cash?

[windoor]

Bragging? No, I am done with that.

The original post had to do with rebates for a win only player.

At what percentage or ROI would you need to become profitable?

As a win only player myself, I made the choice earlier this year to play many tracks and many races with a smaller wager instead of taking my best hit rate and ROI with larger wagers. At least for the bulk of what I play.

My data tells me I am more likely to avoid the longer losing streaks and bank draw downs if I spread it out over multiple plays and tracks. If your bank is strong enough, you can accept a lower hit rate and get a higher average odd. Again, this is what my data tells me.

I would much rather find a way to eliminate three losing plays per day than worry over the small rebate offered to win only players. Still, it may be the only way if you find yourself stuck at the near break even point.

Running all plays through a ADW is the only choice for some. It certainly is easier. I just don't trust them to keep my selections private. I pretty sure that all of them know exactly who owns a profitable account. I think one of them even posted on these boards the percentage of profitable accounts. Did not name names of course, but they do know. I have other options.

Take it a step forward, and maybe they reverse engineer what you are playing and as a result, reduce you average odd over time to were it is no longer profitable.

Then again, maybe I'm just paranoid.

Regards,

Windoor