Is it possible to earn 300k in one year at the track?

[windoor]

Can you earn 300K per year at the track?

An outrageous claim no doubt, but would only a fool or a liar dare to make such a claim?

If you truly believe this, then you can stop now and save yourself some time.
If on the other hand, you have an open mind, or are even just a little curious, come take a walk with me and I will explain.

We will need to make three assumptions. A small leap of faith if you will.

The first:

Do you believe a seasoned pro being very selective in his plays can consistently maintain a 25% hit rate? Lets say over the course of a week, he looks at two tracks. Lets say each track is open 5 days a week and run 10 races per card. He looks at 100 races in the course of the week.

He systematically throws out 80 of them. Remember he is being very selective on the types of races he plays. He wants a horse that (to him) has a clear cut advantage, and a very good chance to win. Of the twenty that are left, and they represents his top picks, even so, fifteen of them lose. He only wins five. A 25% hit rate. I have seen many here, post higher rates than this, and I have no reason to doubt them. Do you believe this is possible? If not, move on.


The second:

Lets also say, this seasoned pro has learned a thing or two about odds. He knows some races are quite a puzzle for the general public. He also knows that some other pro's throw out horses because they have done something or about to do something that they know (think?) will reduce his chance of winning. This creates some very good odds if you can find the right horse with the right attributes to overcome what others see as a negative.

So let us say with careful consideration and much research, this player can maintain and average odd of 4 to 1. Do you believe this is possible? If not, move on.

So a guy comes on these boards and posts that he has been playing all week.
He is a win only player and he wagers $20 on each playable race he finds.
He also states, that after a full week of play, he won $100.

The simple math is. He finds 20 races to play (out of 100) at $20.00 each, this equals $400.00 for the cost of the wagers. He cashes only five times, but at $100 each, or for a total of $500 for a $100 profit.

Does anyone find this unbelievable? Would anyone even congratulate him on his $100 profit for a full week of handicapping. I suppose some will, any success, no matter all small should be acknowledge. Though some may be tempted to tell him about their big exacta that was hit for hundreds of dollars, or another about the big Superfecta score that netted thousands. We all like to talk about our good hits.

Understand these are averages. He may only win $50 one week, but $150 the next. He may lose $100 one week, then win $200 the next. This is the nature of our game.

The point is, he is very good at what he does. He gets on some low odd horses, but at the same time hits some very nice odd horses from time to time, which gives him an average odd of 4 to 1. Again, over time.

Lets say, because he is very careful, very selective on the types of races he will play, and only plays the best of the best that all his experience and research tells him will be consistent. He can hold these averages for an entire year. Peaks and valleys to be sure, but the average is still there. Are you still with me? Is there anyone left in the room?

Some more simple math. The bank is very strong and can now support a $200 wager.

All of sudden that $100 per week (5K per year) is now $1000 per week and 50K a year.More than a lot of hard working people can earn that work forty hours a week.

Starting to get into the realm of un-believability? Why? It's just a number. Don't be afraid of it.

The third:

Now what would happen if he found a way to test and use his method for every track in North America. Maybe instead of two tracks, he can find twenty. Maybe some do not work quite so well and the win percent or average odd drops a little. Maybe some are not good at all, and will not show the consistency. Maybe some perform even better.

Do the rest of the math yourself.

Do you still think, it does not fall in the realm of "possibilities"?

Just some food for though. I think about these things all the time. You are really only limited by your imagination, or so I am told.

Regards,

Windoor.

[HUSKER55]

It boils down to discipline and making value bets. With a strong bank like you seem to have I would say that number would be achievable.

It would appear you are now reaping what you have sowed over the years and it is working for you.

Just curious, and no...it is none of my business, but with a 25% strike I would guess that your average odds would have to be be 6:1 or higher. Is that correct?

Thanks for sharing.

[RunForTheRoses]

With a rebate and a good bankroll, yes, could possibly make more. Otherwise I don't think so, would be very hard. Maybe the best of the best but...it is real difficult.

[acorn54]

i have thought of increasing my bets, but at alot of tracks on the minor circuits, where i get alot my plays, if i increased too much i would be affecting the odds.
at the major circuits of course such a problem doesn't exist, but restricting myself to the major circuits would drastically cut down on the number of bets i make a year.

[turninforhome10]

I like your ideas Windoor. And not to get to complicated, Would people think this was so crazy if we were in trader forum? I think the hardest part of this game is being able to reconcile the dichotomy of gambling and investing. If someone is using the best tools (for them) , has put in the homework and has a clear agenda why not. Someone should start a thread "What it takes to be a 2%".
I feel the problem with teaching anybody anything is most learn in order to the "pass the test". This is to say that we cram the information that we need for the immediate task in order to spew it out in order for a grade or paycheck. Most people educate themselves in order to get ahead financially. However most get comfortable and the need for education becomes no longer necessary for financial gain. Personal hapiness becomes the primary motive for the way to use the mind. A fancy way to say that most of us are average.

The difference between someone who donates their dollars and those that collect the dollars donated comes from 2 things IMO
1)Be pragmatic in both what you learn and who you learn it from. The more you learn about this game the more you realize that the ability to be reflexive to changing situations comes from personal experience and formatting proper objective thought.
2) Ability to pay attention to detail and having a developed sense of trust with yourself that what your doing is the best that can do. The belief in yourself and methods.
These two things are a big part in going to 300k a year.

People think I am crazy when I tell them I spent 8 hrs building databses to handicap horses. I think they are crazy for allowing themselves to just settle in to a secure and mundane existence.

The only difference between the 2% and the other 98% is the ability to accept responsibility for acting on your dreams and being able to go through the process to achieve said dreams being good to yourself along the way.

[cj]

Possible, sure, but there are is a flaw in your third assumption.

It is tough to bet that much at a lot of tracks without totally changing your edge. I would say you can't do it at most tracks. Of those that you can, rarely are fifty races run in a week any longer. In SoCal, it is probably closer to 40.

This isn't to say I don't like your plan. I wrote a couple articles about this in 2007 that are still available here. I'm just saying you really need to do your homework with regards to pool size and what your bet size will do to your prices at various odds ranges.

[lamboguy]

i would say it is very unlikely today pari- mutuely speaking because there simply isn't enough money in the pools.

yes i know you could get lucky and hit a pick 6 that pays $500,000. or a rainbow pick six. but that has a high element of luck.

i think that the money in these pools today is pretty sharp. if you walk up to the window on a wed. in BELMONT and plunk down $2000 to win on an 8-1 proposition, you will drop the odds to under 7-1. you are giving up to much there to show a profit. if you bet $200 you might budge those odds between .10 and .20. that you can overcome. but you have to do it to many times to make $300,000 in a year.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i would say it is very unlikely today pari- mutuely speaking because there simply isn't enough money in the pools.

yes i know you could get lucky and hit a pick 6 that pays $500,000. or a rainbow pick six. but that has a high element of luck.

i think that the money in these pools today is pretty sharp. if you walk up to the window on a wed. in BELMONT and plunk down $2000 to win on an 8-1 proposition, you will drop the odds to under 7-1. you are giving up to much there to show a profit. if you bet $200 you might budge those odds between .10 and .20. that you can overcome. but you have to do it to many times to make $300,000 in a year.

for my style 6 figures and up requires requires strong exotic play in pools beyond exactas and doubles (3 or more horses).
Increasing bankroll exponentially 5%/ day until a plateau daily goal is reached comes out to maybe $200/day profit x 200 work days = 40K.

Starting w/ $100 you reach $200/day on day 78 (or you skip ahead days when you make more than your daily 5%). a mythical 365 day year @ $200 = 73K

start looking at less small tracks & more win pool, exotics to get beyond $200 plateau.

[Dave Schwartz]

Can you earn 300K per year at the track?

Simple answer is "yes."

However, there a lot of conditions that make this difficult. First, let's consider what is your expected advantage (or ROI or whatever you wish to call it). Let's say that you are going to make a whopping 10% without rebate. And let's be clear about rebates - a lot of the bigger tracks, you know, the ones where you can wager a LOT of money - have very small rebates these days.

Let's work on the assumption that you CAN, in fact, return a solid 10% per wagered dollar AFTER your wagers have been added to the pool.

First condition: +10% ROI

$300,000 per year
Let's keep this simple and assume 50 weeks per year of playing time. Therefore, we are talking about $6,000 per week.

Wagering: The Math
$6,000 / 10% = $60,000 per week bet. Let's assume you have found a 5-day track. That is only $12,000 per day. Let's say that you are going to wager 3 races per day.

There you have it. Bet $4,000 per race.

Yes, it can be done.

If you believe that your ROI is going to be 20% then you only have to bet $2,000 per race.


Caveats
1. Betting $2,000 per horse without destroying your profit is not possible at all odds ranges at all tracks.

2. Betting early will destroy your prices: "Look! Someone made that horse 1-99! He must be live!" (Yes, I know there is no 1-99.)

3. $2,000 per horse demands a huge bankroll.


IMHO, it is much easier to wager $240 per race, betting multiple horses per race, 100 times per day, spread across 6 or 7 tracks at a 5% net ROI after rebate.

Voila! $300,000 per year.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[gm10]

The main problem is the odds. You won't know what odds you're getting until the race has started (and even then). If you were able to bet at fixed odds, it could be done imo. Not easy, though. You might lose a bit of your mind in the process.

[bob60566]

The 300k i will not go there, But as I play Mountineer five days week and is the only track I play that gives me fifty race per week i think it is 340 races so far this meet. My average selections per card is four sometime five. I seem to follow Windoors approach on four to five selections per card or less.
If you can get 25% and no i will not post my percentages as that would be like a red flag to a bull.To use this method you have to bet in your comfort zone on all selections, One thing I do is bet my selections prior to first race and hit the cancel button on the bet if i do not like the odds or the track changes other than fast.

Mac

[Robert Goren]

Don't the whales make much more than $300K a year?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Simple answer is "yes."

However, there a lot of conditions that make this difficult. First, let's consider what is your expected advantage (or ROI or whatever you wish to call it). Let's say that you are going to make a whopping 10% without rebate. And let's be clear about rebates - a lot of the bigger tracks, you know, the ones where you can wager a LOT of money - have very small rebates these days.

Let's work on the assumption that you CAN, in fact, return a solid 10% per wagered dollar AFTER your wagers have been added to the pool.

First condition: +10% ROI

$300,000 per year
Let's keep this simple and assume 50 weeks per year of playing time. Therefore, we are talking about $6,000 per week.

Wagering: The Math
$6,000 / 10% = $60,000 per week bet. Let's assume you have found a 5-day track. That is only $12,000 per day. Let's say that you are going to wager 3 races per day.

There you have it. Bet $4,000 per race.

Yes, it can be done.

If you believe that your ROI is going to be 20% then you only have to bet $2,000 per race.


Caveats
1. Betting $2,000 per horse without destroying your profit is not possible at all odds ranges at all tracks.

2. Betting early will destroy your prices: "Look! Someone made that horse 1-99! He must be live!" (Yes, I know there is no 1-99.)

3. $2,000 per horse demands a huge bankroll.


IMHO, it is much easier to wager $240 per race, betting multiple horses per race, 100 times per day, spread across 6 or 7 tracks at a 5% net ROI after rebate.

Voila! $300,000 per year.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

i would love to meet the person that is going to have a plus 10% roi betting 520 races per year. dave its impossible to do with a rebate.

if i could run up and down the strip in vegas and bet unlimited money on house Q's i would beat those hotels out of the $300,000 in 6 months.

but you know better than myself, that after beating them for 3 races they will tell me to take a hike.

[setup]

Definitely doable:

75 bets a week -- easy enough-- 3,750 races per year
$400 per race wagers -- (this way you can still play tracks like DEL and GG and CRC, EVD, TP, etc.) $1.5M wagered per year
20% return -- both exotics and win bets --
$300k return

allow for a half hour of heart rhythm meditation morning and night and
keep repeating to yourself: "Why is it so easy to win $300k a year betting", until your unconscious get it done for you.

[Dave Schwartz]

i would love to meet the person that is going to have a plus 10% roi betting 520 races per year. dave its impossible to do with a rebate.

I have never met anybody who could do that.

The question was, "Is it possible?" not "Is it probable?"

I was simply applying the math.