The Handicapper's Cafe

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Robert nice post
But is this thread in my opinion being geared to superfecta wagering and that to me is not for the faint of heart or the novice handicapper.
Mac

This section will be geared to wherever Thaskalos wants it...you are free to view and participate constructively, or you are free to ignore it.

It's quite simple.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage[b

]This section will be geared to wherever Thaskalos wants it...you are free to view and participate constructively, or you are free to ignore it.[/b]

It's quite simple.

It was only A opinion in the cafe

Mac

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by bob60566

It was only A opinion in the cafe

Mac

Yes, but people seem to have a hard time grasping that this section will focus on whatever Thaskalos wants to focus on...this is his area.

He also said that the purpose of this particular thread, "The Handicapper's Cafe," will be:

Originally Posted by Thaskalos

...in order to encourage more conversation on handicapping and betting.

So your opinion is duly noted. I didn't criticize you for your opinion, I just sought to clarify things.

[windoor]

Maybe I am not done. Just confused.
With many questions.

I don't understand how you can take offense when I post 60 plays with only 8 low odd winners and then call me the "best handicapper in the country" What scale do you use?

My intention was to show an example of a bank draw down ( the doom of many a player) Then with confidence in your (properly researched) method how things can turn around in a hurry if only you are still there to play.

Would it have been better to show a losing streak that busted the bank? I have many and more of those. How many do you want? What does that teach anyone? Don't play, you will only lose.

One of my very first posts here on these boards had to do with how to play successfully.

I argued that you should not invest one dime until you are satisfied that you selection method is sound and has shown to be profitable on paper before risking a bank on actual play.

This can be done with very little out of pocket expense, but does require quite a bit of effort and time.

I do indeed regret my choice of words when I said the game can be easy to beat. I should have said, I always believed it can be beat, and once you understand how, it is quite easy to do. Still a big headed response, but more closely represents my views.

Buy now!!! Give me just $49.95 and I will show you how to win 300K a year at the track. Any takers? I thought not. Does anyone here think I have something to sell?

Maybe I should. Then it would require proof of it's worth and you would have good reason to be angry if it did not meet your expectations.


If you bothered to read the entire post when I showed a J/Capper summary report stating these results and my comments about them, I don't think anyone would take it at face value. I even stated I would not play such a thing, given the low hit rate, but I did find it interesting and would watch it closely going forward. I do believe I only mentioned in once again and that was here. Just to show the "possibilities". You don't believe it? Well, I think you would be a fool if you did, without doing the research yourself.

Are the results accurate. Yes they are. I used an arbitrary number of $200 to win and the math is correct. It did not take into account any pool dilution with such a wager. Had I used $2 as the base wager and said this play could return 3K after a whole year, I doubt anyone would have said a thing. It's just a decimal point or two.

I like to see all "possible" outcomes. Yeah, but does it work? I am not satisfied with an 18% hit rate. The average odd was quite high which scares me. The public determines the odd and with that hit rate, I would not trust them to keep the odds long term. Maybe I'm wrong, I will continue to watch it.

BACK FITTING.

Maybe I don't understand the true meaning of the phrase.
Every play I have is the result of back fitting. Some worked out very well, most of them do not. How else can you develop a selection method? When you open the PP's are you not looking at historical data? Do you not look at horse that beat your selection and ask yourself why? Do you not wonder if you played similar horses if it could be profitable long term? Do you ever think of the "Possibilities"?

How do you pick your selections? Did you read how to handicapp from a book? Did someone take you aside and teach you how to handicap? Did anyone at anytime show you an exact method that was profitable long term? If so, then consider yourself very lucky to have that information handed to you. If your like most, you take in bits of information over a long period of time and find out for yourself what works and what doesn't.

The rest of us put many thousands of hours trying one thing then another, when that one failed, then another. It is good to know what doesn't work. If you search long enough (An maybe with a little guidance ) maybe you will find something that does.

That alone is not enough. Will you take the profit from a winning method and blow it on a losing one? I did for many years. I think many are here are doing just that. They just don't realize it yet.

The only thing any of us have is "PAST" performances. Historical data. If you check your method with historical data and it does not show a profit, why on earth would you invest in it? What if you added a filter? What if you find if you only played six furlong races on the dirt at certain tracks at a certain class level you suddenly become profitable?

Still not enough. You have to make sure it works going forward. When you confidence level is high enough, do you mortgage your house and start off with $1000 wagers?

I would not. I would start off with small wagers and if the method proves to be successful take the profits and reinvest with larger and larger wages until you get to the level of play you desire and can live with. Start with a small bank and watch it grow to a large one. Why do you find that so unbelievable?

And why all the hate for computers and software programs. They are just tools. No magic bullets here. They can only spit out what they are "programmed" to do. They are very fast and very accurate. Saves a lot of time and rarely makes a mistake. In my case the problem has always been between the chair and keyboard.

I come here to have some conversation and share ideas with like minded people.

I have also come to have great respect and even admiration for a lot of people on these boards. This includes you Thaskolos. Among many others.

I even went as far to spend a couple of hours going over everything I have posted for the last couple of years here. I must confess, I do not like what I see. If I put myself in someone else's shoes, and look real hard, I see a somewhat arrogant know it all that likes to brag about his success. For this I am truly sorry. I did not realize I came off that way. After being a losing player for many years, it seems I do not know how to handle my good fortune gracefully. Another lesson learned. So all of this was not in vain.

Now, I am done.

I think.

Regards,

Windoor

[Dave Schwartz]

Buy now!!! Give me just $49.95 and I will show you how to win 300K a year at the track. Any takers? I thought not. Does anyone here think I have something to sell?

Absolutely!

Where do I send the money?

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by windoor

Now, I am done.

I think.

Regards,

Windoor

Hopefully you mean that you are done just until the next time, not permanently.
I for one appreciate your contributions and the above post is quite revealing about being willing to undergo painful self-evaluation, which all of us should do from time to time.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by windoor

Maybe I am not done. Just confused.
With many questions.

I don't understand how you can take offense when I post 60 plays with only 8 low odd winners and then call me the "best handicapper in the country" What scale do you use?

My intention was to show an example of a bank draw down ( the doom of many a player) Then with confidence in your (properly researched) method how things can turn around in a hurry if only you are still there to play.

Would it have been better to show a losing streak that busted the bank? I have many and more of those. How many do you want? What does that teach anyone? Don't play, you will only lose.

One of my very first posts here on these boards had to do with how to play successfully.

I argued that you should not invest one dime until you are satisfied that you selection method is sound and has shown to be profitable on paper before risking a bank on actual play.

This can be done with very little out of pocket expense, but does require quite a bit of effort and time.

I do indeed regret my choice of words when I said the game can be easy to beat. I should have said, I always believed it can be beat, and once you understand how, it is quite easy to do. Still a big headed response, but more closely represents my views.

Buy now!!! Give me just $49.95 and I will show you how to win 300K a year at the track. Any takers? I thought not. Does anyone here think I have something to sell?

Maybe I should. Then it would require proof of it's worth and you would have good reason to be angry if it did not meet your expectations.


If you bothered to read the entire post when I showed a J/Capper summary report stating these results and my comments about them, I don't think anyone would take it at face value. I even stated I would not play such a thing, given the low hit rate, but I did find it interesting and would watch it closely going forward. I do believe I only mentioned in once again and that was here. Just to show the "possibilities". You don't believe it? Well, I think you would be a fool if you did, without doing the research yourself.

Are the results accurate. Yes they are. I used an arbitrary number of $200 to win and the math is correct. It did not take into account any pool dilution with such a wager. Had I used $2 as the base wager and said this play could return 3K after a whole year, I doubt anyone would have said a thing. It's just a decimal point or two.

I like to see all "possible" outcomes. Yeah, but does it work? I am not satisfied with an 18% hit rate. The average odd was quite high which scares me. The public determines the odd and with that hit rate, I would not trust them to keep the odds long term. Maybe I'm wrong, I will continue to watch it.

BACK FITTING.

Maybe I don't understand the true meaning of the phrase.
Every play I have is the result of back fitting. Some worked out very well, most of them do not. How else can you develop a selection method? When you open the PP's are you not looking at historical data? Do you not look at horse that beat your selection and ask yourself why? Do you not wonder if you played similar horses if it could be profitable long term? Do you ever think of the "Possibilities"?

How do you pick your selections? Did you read how to handicapp from a book? Did someone take you aside and teach you how to handicap? Did anyone at anytime show you an exact method that was profitable long term? If so, then consider yourself very lucky to have that information handed to you. If your like most, you take in bits of information over a long period of time and find out for yourself what works and what doesn't.

The rest of us put many thousands of hours trying one thing then another, when that one failed, then another. It is good to know what doesn't work. If you search long enough (An maybe with a little guidance ) maybe you will find something that does.

That alone is not enough. Will you take the profit from a winning method and blow it on a losing one? I did for many years. I think many are here are doing just that. They just don't realize it yet.

The only thing any of us have is "PAST" performances. Historical data. If you check your method with historical data and it does not show a profit, why on earth would you invest in it? What if you added a filter? What if you find if you only played six furlong races on the dirt at certain tracks at a certain class level you suddenly become profitable?

Still not enough. You have to make sure it works going forward. When you confidence level is high enough, do you mortgage your house and start off with $1000 wagers?

I would not. I would start off with small wagers and if the method proves to be successful take the profits and reinvest with larger and larger wages until you get to the level of play you desire and can live with. Start with a small bank and watch it grow to a large one. Why do you find that so unbelievable?

And why all the hate for computers and software programs. They are just tools. No magic bullets here. They can only spit out what they are "programmed" to do. They are very fast and very accurate. Saves a lot of time and rarely makes a mistake. In my case the problem has always been between the chair and keyboard.

I come here to have some conversation and share ideas with like minded people.

I have also come to have great respect and even admiration for a lot of people on these boards. This includes you Thaskolos. Among many others.

I even went as far to spend a couple of hours going over everything I have posted for the last couple of years here. I must confess, I do not like what I see. If I put myself in someone else's shoes, and look real hard, I see a somewhat arrogant know it all that likes to brag about his success. For this I am truly sorry. I did not realize I came off that way. After being a losing player for many years, it seems I do not know how to handle my good fortune gracefully. Another lesson learned. So all of this was not in vain.

Now, I am done.

I think.

Regards,

Windoor

Windoor

Being a spot player as you are aware for me your posts in this respect are very informative in handicapping skills, What is being taken out of concept is how you have come across in how easy this game is to beat.
Well Windoor to elevate this idea, Tell this thread how easy your picks you posted at Mountineer as you promised you would prior to the meet starting and how you kept your word on that. Yes you had losing picks if this is what this thread wants to see they are all there at beginning of March 2012 Mountineer selections thread. Bye the way i had losers also in that time frame.
We need spot players with angles .

Mac



Windoor

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

First, I do not have a dog in tis fight, as the saying goes.

However...

*As a follower and believer of Thaskalos as a handicapper and human being I must say that I see his point of view.

*As regards to Windoor, I also am giving him the benefit of the doubt. He said that he bet real money on this and I will take him at his word.

*I would like to learn from both of these men.






Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Im new here but this post (especially that last line) just perfectly nails it......

Isnt that the reason we are all here?



IMHO Windoor has found(through years of research, im guessing) something, a sort of "truth",about his OWN game,call it a "spot play" or "system"or whatever,.....something(or things) that has proven to work for him long term.....with his Main point always being that you will have long losing runs.....

Reading thru earlier posts,
I recall cj mentioning a play he had researched for mdn races,that showed a long term profit...by "tweaking" the play he was able to get the win %up....but was eliminating the long priced horses....

Is that not a "spot play"?

Thaskalos mentions he learned more about poker playing from watching "over the head" of a pro player in action than any book he ever read.....

I (for one) would be fascinated to be able to watch "over your head" as you take apart a race,... and improve my game

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by Maximillion[b

]Im new here[/b] but this post (especially that last line) just perfectly nails it......

Isnt that the reason we are all here?



IMHO Windoor has found(through years of research, im guessing) something, a sort of "truth",about his OWN game,call it a "spot play" or "system"or whatever,.....something(or things) that has proven to work for him long term.....with his Main point always being that you will have long losing runs.....

Reading thru earlier posts,
I recall cj mentioning a play he had researched for mdn races,that showed a long term profit...by "tweaking" the play he was able to get the win %up....but was eliminating the long priced horses....

Is that not a "spot play"?

Thaskalos mentions he learned more about poker playing from watching "over the head" of a pro player in action than any book he ever read.....

I (for one) would be fascinated to be able to watch "over your head" as you take apart a race,... and improve my game

Yes
Mac

[Beachbabe]

Some cafe !!!!!!
I've been here for hours and haven't seen a waitress or gotten a menu yet.

I'll settle for a cup of coffee.

[Shelby]

Originally Posted by Beachbabe

Some cafe !!!!!!
I've been here for hours and haven't seen a waitress or gotten a menu yet.

I'll settle for a cup of coffee.

I was wishing they served wine........

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

Thaskalos mentions he learned more about poker playing from watching "over the head" of a pro player in action than any book he ever read.....

I (for one) would be fascinated to be able to watch "over your head" as you take apart a race,... and improve my game

I am eager to get to this part too...and it will be coming up next.

I will handicap the entire card for Friday the 20th...at both Aqueduct and Hawthorne.

I will start at the very beginning of the card, and will explain my thinking process throughout.

I will dissect the races in detail, thoroughly explaining how I assess the ability of each horse as I perceive it...and then I will explain my thinking process as I construct my bets for the race.

I don't know how to handle all the details of the presentation yet...because I don't yet know how to go about putting the past performances on the computer screen for all to see and follow along...but I suspect that someone will offer me some assistance on this, and I will be able to figure this out in the next couple days.

This presentation will take place in another thread, which I will introduce in the next day or two...which I will title "Thoroughbred Handicapping: Theory and Practice".

I also intend to introduce another thread, either tonight or tomorrow night, on the subject of pace...because pace plays an important role in what I do...and it deserves an explanation of sorts, before I begin the handicapping of the races.

I welcome any other suggestions you guys might have...and I will do all I can to incorporate them into the demonstration.

[jdhanover]

Looking forward to this Gus...its really what I think will make this section super valuable.

Of course, it figures that I will be tied up all day, but c'est la vie. Nice nighttime reading though

[Grits]

Thank you for your work and for your patience throughout the last couple of days, Thask. Look forward to the new threads.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Shelby

I was wishing they served wine........

Oh there's been plenty of whining...