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08-15-2018, 02:37 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.
I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.
Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --
Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:
I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.
But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.
I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,
-jp
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I totally love this.
I'm certain our methods are different, but I have an algorithm that creates profiles like this. I can run the algorithm against "all races" of a specific type or do it by sub categories like track, track condition, field size, etc... I think the public has general perceptions, but sometimes specific categories are different than those perceptions.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-15-2018 at 02:40 PM.
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08-15-2018, 05:37 PM
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#17
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sour grapes
it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
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Maybe you're just a troll.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-15-2018, 06:50 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 510
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The game is squeaky clean this would never happen.
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08-15-2018, 07:00 PM
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#19
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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This was, apparently, an interesting race.
We were discussing this in my private group and Mike Salony's handicapping pointed to the #2 & #10 being the only "live" horses in the race.
#10 ran 3rd but (according to the charts) was coming at them hard at the end.
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08-17-2018, 01:01 PM
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#20
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dGnr8
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Niagara, Ontario
Posts: 3,023
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Tom - This is from HPIBet.
__________________
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The great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge - Daniel J. Boorstin
The takers get the honey, the givers sing the blues - Robin Trower, Too Rolling Stoned - 1974
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08-17-2018, 01:06 PM
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#21
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dGnr8
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Niagara, Ontario
Posts: 3,023
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Also from HPIBet, Aug 11 R6
__________________
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The great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge - Daniel J. Boorstin
The takers get the honey, the givers sing the blues - Robin Trower, Too Rolling Stoned - 1974
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08-17-2018, 01:09 PM
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#22
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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thanks for sharing that HPIBet data, Red Knave
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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08-17-2018, 02:04 PM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sour grapes
hes wrong ,i had a bet on the race and the horse was always 2-1.
the guy seems to exaggerate quite a bit.
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The chance of a horse in NY going 2-1 to 1/2 at the bell is near zero.
Better chance of Maxine waters endorsing Trump for the second term
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08-17-2018, 02:25 PM
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#24
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Knave
Tom - This is from HPIBet.
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Thanks, that is all I was asking.
I may have been looking at different track - TVG is not good at showing odds at other tracks on the crawl.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-21-2018, 12:14 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
The chance of a horse in NY going 2-1 to 1/2 at the bell is near zero.
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What used to be near zero has got to be upped a little nowadays. Anyone see the money on the 3rd yesterday? Think the winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 on last flash or at least last minute. This is what's going on with Saratoga pools, shutter to think of the swings we have in store once AQU in winter rolls around.
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08-21-2018, 08:34 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Thanks, that is all I was asking.
I may have been looking at different track - TVG is not good at showing odds at other tracks on the crawl.
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I saw some folks saying on another medium that there was a mysterious odds drop in this year's UN. The winner- by far the longest of 3 C Brown horses in the race- seemed to go from around 35-1 to 23-1 around 3/4 mile into the race. The evidence shown was from the TVG feed. On the track feed, the horse was around 23-1 all along. So the TVG odds were incorrect.
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