Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Software


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-08-2020, 11:04 AM   #1
CBYRacer
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 178
Modeling pace dynamics

Computer guys,

How do you model pace dynamics (e.g., early speed battles that set up for closers, lone speed situations, etc.) in your algorithms?

I'm using a rank-ordered logit and currently have a composite factor (linear combination) that projects probability of having the early lead (1/2 mile in sprints and 6F point in routes). Based on this, I can tell roughly where each runner will be early in the race. My problem is, how to add factors for what type of pace scenario is emerging. The model clearly shows that being up front early is on average a positive factor (no surprise here), but does this positive effect vary based on whether there is pace pressure or a speed battle? If so, how could I model this using new variables?

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
CBYRacer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2020, 02:30 PM   #2
pandy
Registered User
 
pandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,341
I'll give you an idea of how you can use these numbers, in races where a lot of horses project to be on or near the lead (horses with similar early pace numbers), instead of looking for the best closers, look for horses that figure to be positioned just behind the early runners. A lot of times, it's not actually the horse with the best late kick that wins. It's the horse that gets the first run on the leaders and passes them while they're tiring. The late closers then kind of keep plugging and finish third and fourth.

In races where there aren't that many horses with sharp early speed numbers, look for good value among the horses that do have good early speed because one of those horses will probably win, either wire to wire or off a stalking or pressing trip.
pandy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-08-2020, 02:45 PM   #3
CBYRacer
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 178
Good stuff, Pandy. Thanks!
CBYRacer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

Tags
computer, model, pace




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:58 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.