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05-01-2023, 06:25 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2023
Posts: 51
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What's Your Derby Play?
Many years ago (before the age of simulcasting), that 25-minute break between races was social time amongst friends and other characters you could meet at the track. As a racing neophyte, I enjoyed hearing others' opinions.
I guess I have gotten sour in my later years. I still very much enjoy seeing my friends at the track, but am less enthused in hearing a 5-minute monologue on why this horse is better than that horse.
My personal preference is to make all of my bets before the first race starts, and then sit back and relax. If I win that's great; if you're sitting next to me and win [after having a different opinion] that is good, too.
So what's the point of this long-winded message? Now that the PPs are out on DRF, I have formed an opinion and will bet accordingly:
$2 exacta box 2, 8, 9, 10
$2 trifecta box 2, 8, 9, 10
$10 win #9 Skinner
$82 investment.
Would enjoy hearing others' plays, minus the long-winded reasoning behind your prognostications! (Yes, you can call me a killjoy.)
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05-01-2023, 08:03 PM
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#2
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Spot Player
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 276
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Straight Exacta: 14/9
For obvious reasons....
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05-01-2023, 08:17 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,223
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Sorry, you get the reasoning because I'm not doing the work until Saturday morning!
Three lists:
1) Horses that beat the greatest total number of horses
2) Horses that passed the greatest total number of horses (first call --> finish)
3) Horses that faced the greatest total number of horses
There will be some commonality in the three lists. I'm going to take the top remaining horse in each list 1,2,3,1,2,3,1,2,3 until I have 5 unique horses.
Then it's a $1 exacta box - $20.
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Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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05-01-2023, 08:26 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2023
Posts: 51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Sorry, you get the reasoning because I'm not doing the work until Saturday morning!
Three lists:
1) Horses that beat the greatest total number of horses
2) Horses that passed the greatest total number of horses (first call --> finish)
3) Horses that faced the greatest total number of horses
There will be some commonality in the three lists. I'm going to take the top remaining horse in each list 1,2,3,1,2,3,1,2,3 until I have 5 unique horses.
Then it's a $1 exacta box - $20.
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I don't mind the reasoning! I was just being cynical from having spent too many years in the Maryland press boxes listening to my friends -- some of them still working in the industry -- give a 10-minute speech on a particular horse's attributes.
Given that parimutuel wagering is actually about people having differing opinions, perhaps I should just shut up at this point.
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05-01-2023, 08:38 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,652
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geno_Gino
Given that parimutuel wagering is actually about people having differing opinions, perhaps I should just shut up at this point.
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I actually enjoy hearing solid rationale as to why someone is placing a wager on a particular horse. Better than reading Facebook or watching cable news these days.
Still working out a wager. My old man and I usually make a decent tri box. We've hit a couple on the Derby but they were chalky. One of these days we will knock out a fat one. I figure Forte is a top 4 type horse and will start there. I figure Verifying is an early speed that can hold up for a piece. Saez is a must use so that adds Tapit. Maybe those three as anchors in my own tri wagers. How much I win or lose before the big race might be a factor in how much I throw around for the Derby. I already have a pile of live future wagers so don't feel compelled to go gangbusters.
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05-03-2023, 10:25 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 155
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Derma Soto
Angel of Empire
Kingsbarns
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05-03-2023, 11:13 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,426
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So far I have 150 to win on mage at 20-1 on an offshore. I thought it was good value and I doubt he’s more than that on derby day
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Without the freedom to offend you do not have the freedom of speech
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05-03-2023, 11:46 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Sorry, you get the reasoning because I'm not doing the work until Saturday morning!
Three lists:
1) Horses that beat the greatest total number of horses
2) Horses that passed the greatest total number of horses (first call --> finish)
3) Horses that faced the greatest total number of horses
There will be some commonality in the three lists. I'm going to take the top remaining horse in each list 1,2,3,1,2,3,1,2,3 until I have 5 unique horses.
Then it's a $1 exacta box - $20.
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I enjoy seeing everyone’s reasoning. I look forward to your Saturday post with your final bet.
But my comment here is more on the wager itself. The $1 ex box $20.00 bet is an absolute favorite of mine for the Derby. Relatively low investment and a lot of the field covered. May not hit for a lot, but it’s great fun for little cost.
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05-03-2023, 11:58 AM
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#9
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Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Maryland
Posts: 740
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I love to talk about races and I'm as longwinded as any, but good to have a lean picks thread. This is as concise as I can be for now.
Top thee with a late-running companion:
Derma Sotogake
Mage
Confidence Game
Skinner
Two shots to augment verticals:
Hit Show
Reincarnate
In the super, I may sprinkle in the top two chalk defensively, and some of these bombers. Maybe require a bomb or two per chalk allowed:
Lord Miles
Rocket Can
Sun Thunder
Continuar
Playing against these upper-mid-priced contenders:
Angel of Empire
Practical Move
Two Phil's
These two are on the bubble, but you can't play them all.
Verifying
Kingsbarns
Hard tosses:
Jace's Road
Raise Cain
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05-03-2023, 07:13 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 171
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What I like
Tapit Thrice is moving forward, ready for a big effort
Two Phil’s last race was to good to ignore
Madge good mover, very agile
Sun Thunder set for a big effort
Practical Move pace, with good figures
Angel of Empire has a solid chance
Slow moving train, until he gets going
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05-03-2023, 08:49 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,130
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No particular order but looking at the Confidence Game, Skinner and Practical Move.
Last edited by jay68802; 05-03-2023 at 08:52 PM.
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05-04-2023, 01:41 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 83
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5-9-17-15
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05-04-2023, 04:56 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: oakmont pa
Posts: 4,830
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10 Practical Move
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Bet wps
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05-04-2023, 06:21 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 390
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