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07-31-2022, 08:47 PM
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#1
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Justique
Shirreffs may have another really special one.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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07-31-2022, 08:51 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
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Posted this in the Del Mar Playalong thread.
That was a very easy win by that 
Worth watching to see the next one.
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08-01-2022, 12:58 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Looked like a relatively slow race.
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08-01-2022, 06:58 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Looked like a relatively slow race.
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First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot BUT it's rare for a 2YO on the dirt to close from dead last to win.
Last edited by Andy Asaro; 08-01-2022 at 07:01 AM.
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08-01-2022, 09:12 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot BUT it's rare for a 2YO on the dirt to close from dead last to win.
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Easier to come from last in a fast paced slow race.
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08-01-2022, 09:16 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Easier to come from last in a fast paced slow race.
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Was NOT close to being all out nearing the wire. And yes, that's what I said when I said "First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot"
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08-01-2022, 09:17 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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72 Beyer for Justique and an 84 for firster Jackstown in the 1st race.
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08-01-2022, 09:20 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Was NOT close to being all out nearing the wire. And yes, that's what I said when I said "First quarter was extremely quick and that helped a lot"
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I would have emphasized close instead of NOT.
The racetrack is littered with claimers that ran slow figures in their debuts but passed the so called eye test.
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08-01-2022, 09:21 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 08-01-2022 at 09:22 AM.
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08-01-2022, 09:22 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2022
Posts: 312
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Three 5.5f races at Del Mar on Sunday.
R1 MSW 22.2 45.1 57.1 1:03.2
R6 MCLM 22.0 46.3 59.2 1:05.4
R8 MSW (F) 21.2 45.0 57.4 1:04.1
Closing from last is always exciting for the fans, but these numbers are not particularly outstanding.
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08-01-2022, 10:13 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
Shirreffs may have another really special one.
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08-01-2022, 10:18 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
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She has a few things going for her.
1. The Beyer PAR for these races is 72. She matched the PAR while in hand.
2. Shirreffs is 1 for 30 with an ROI of .63 on $2 bets with 2 yo firsters over the last 5 years. The only winner is Justique.
3. He's 3/59 overall with firsters, with 1 winner being Justique.
4. Not much you can tell about the quality of the field, but the LRC horses that had already run didn't look like much.
There have quite a few faster 2yo filly debuts, but I think we can conclude based on Beyer figures she was an average or slightly above average debut winner that was almost certainly not cranked for her best by Shirreffs.
Where she goes from here will be determined later, but at least the Justify's are really running.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-01-2022 at 10:21 AM.
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08-01-2022, 10:20 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
She has a few things going for her.
1. The Beyer PAR for these races is 72. So she matched the PAR while in hand.
2. Shirreffs is 1 for 30 with an ROI of .63 on $2 bets with 2 yo firsters over the last 5 years. The only winner is Justique.
3. He's 3/59 overall with firsters, with 1 winner being Justique.
There have quite a few faster 2yo filly debuts, but I think we can conclude based on Beyer figures she was an average or slightly above average debut winner that was almost certainly not cranked for her best by Shirreffs.
Where she goes from here will be determined later, but at least the Justify's are really running.
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Great points 
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08-01-2022, 10:34 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 444
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ
Three 5.5f races at Del Mar on Sunday.
R1 MSW 22.2 45.1 57.1 1:03.2
R6 MCLM 22.0 46.3 59.2 1:05.4
R8 MSW (F) 21.2 45.0 57.4 1:04.1
Closing from last is always exciting for the fans, but these numbers are not particularly outstanding.
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Track may have changed over the course of a day's racing, R1 went off at 2:00 pm, R8 went off at 5:30
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08-01-2022, 10:47 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metro
Track may have changed over the course of a day's racing, R1 went off at 2:00 pm, R8 went off at 5:30
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Maybe it sped up, as the 10th race went in a relatively quick 1:09.79.
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