Advice on direction for a new handicapper?

[proximity]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

Horse Racing Logic by Glendon Jones. Loved this book but don't remember much since I last read it over 12 years ago.
.

i wouldn't throw away this little book. keep it and periodically review those intangibles mr jones talks about in the final chapter the inner struggle.

i would argue that to reach your goals in betting that you need a passing grade in each of these factors. one weak link can ruin your whole chain.

and fwiw, i also agree with garyoz about not using a red pen. i seem to do much better when marking my pps with a green or blue flair pen. but of course if red is working for you.....

[raybo]

Pittsburgh Phil is the only horse racing author I've ever read from cover to cover, many years ago. I still follow many of his maxims today.

[turfbar]

My advice on all this advice is take Dan G's advice.

Turfbar

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by DanG

This won’t be popular, but I would seriously give all your handicapping books away and / or sell them on EBay. (Except those that stress wagering; I.e. Cramer) I would get an HDW subscription (HTR is my choice as JB said, but all their clients seem to be excellent)

I would study some popular day trading works, game theory in poker and all the risk / reward / probability studies I could find.

Long story short; I would travel a unique path in a game where so many march in step. You actually have an advantage in some respects in that you don’t carry the years of wagering scars and the time honored racing theory that is ingrained in so many. You have a clean slate and it might pay-off to start without the foundation most of your competition bets from.

Best of luck Doug!

i would say to follow doug's advice also if you can't find a winning horseplayer to learn from. doug's premise is that horsebetting is basically a competition among bettors and if you follow the popular beliefs you won't beat the take out.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i would say to follow doug's advice also if you can't find a winning horseplayer to learn from. doug's premise is that horsebetting is basically a competition among bettors and if you follow the popular beliefs you won't beat the take out.

this is precisely why you have to pick your spots and bet when you have the contrarian view.....if you are gonna bet the same horses the crowd does then you will lose .....betting overlays the crowd ignores or underbets is the one and only way to make money....this goes for straight bets and exotics(vertical & horizontal)otherwise the takeout grinds you down

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by DanG

I would study some popular day trading works, game theory in poker and all the risk / reward / probability studies I could find.

Dan your advice seemed to be the most popular and recommended in this thread. I have actually read many of the poker books out there (Theory of Poker by Sklansky and Malmuth for one) and several day trading books as well (Elder is my favorite). I think that's all extremely useful, to be sure.

However, so far my plan is to start out as a win bettor ONLY, constructing a fair odds line and betting based on that odds line. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed to me as if Dick Mitchell pretty much covered everything a win bettor with a fair odds line needs to do with regard to optimal betting, formulas and all. He discussed the various popular methods and proceeded to show that fractional Kelly wagering was truly optimal. So, I set up a spreadsheet to calculate 5% Kelly wagers on single win bets. He had the optimal formula for dutches when there are multiple overlays as well, but I haven't managed to get that to work in my spreadsheet yet, so I just use 3.5% Kelly on both. He also covered how to calculate fair exacta odds based on a fair odds line which once I am able to MAKE an accurate odds line, I'll bet as well any combos at 50%+ overlay using conditional wagering, starting out betting only the minimum $1 per combo exacta. But that's getting ahead of myself. Got to prove I can win as a win bettor with a good oddsline first.

I guess my question is this: what information did Mitchell leave out of his books on risk vs reward, EV, probabilities, odds, mathematically optimal wagering, etc? His books are no longer current but the math looks correct to me; but, has anyone improved on his work since he wrote them? One place where I do make adjustment is overlay %. Mitchell says bet anything over 25% overlay whereas I put that mark at 40-50%. 25% overlay betting would mean one would have to have one seriously accurate odds line... 40-50% allows more room for error especially for newbies such as myself.

Ultimately, although I've got the books on poker, day trading etc. and will certainly reread what I have and then read more books as well, I just wonder what the true usefulness of them is when applied to horse racing if one already has the discipline to sit through any number of races without an overlay if that's what it takes. And I have the formulas to ensure I'm making mathematically optimal wagers when I DO have an overlay.

I appreciate the advice on HDW / HTR as well. HTR is definitely on my "must have" list. I also plan to give HSH a try, but will probably start with Black Magic since I lovethe UI and the fact that Michael P. includes something like 18 hours of DVD instruction with it.

[DanG]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

I guess my question is this: what information did Mitchell leave out of his books on risk vs reward, EV, probabilities, odds, mathematically optimal wagering, etc? His books are no longer current but the math looks correct to me; but, has anyone improved on his work since he wrote them?

Ultimately, although I've got the books on poker, day trading etc. and will certainly reread what I have and then read more books as well, I just wonder what the true usefulness of them is when applied to horse racing

I appreciate the advice on HDW / HTR as well. HTR is definitely on my "must have" list .

You sound like your well on your way to what feels right for you. It’s sad how many gamblers go through their entire life not actually representing themselves. It’s like the musician who learns only through the recordings of others and turns themselves into a very proficient Parakeet.

As far as what game theory, day trading etc can bring to your game…this will sound odd but I can’t really put it into words. It’s more of a mindset of what we are trying to accomplish. How a serial bet for instance represents the flop, turn, 4th street and river in hold em. Each turn of the card changes the pot odds in poker and the same thing applies to a P4 for example. I’m learning from a man who is adjusting with each result during his sequence with excellent results btw.

Mark Cramer’s classic works on betting, Crist’s book on exotic betting and Dave Schwartz’s package of “Horse Market Investing” can all play a role in defining a sound betting approach. You can’t go very wrong following Mitchell and what you described as your spreadsheet set-up is probably well ahead of many experienced players if they would admit it or not.

I think the thread title should be changed from "new" btw. It sounds like you’re anything but new on this block and are well on your way to being just what we need…more stiff competition.

Best of luck with your quest.

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by DanG

I think the thread title should be changed from "new" btw. It sounds like you’re anything but new on this block and are well on your way to being just what we need…more stiff competition.

Best of luck with your quest.

LOL - I guess I'm "new" as far as how much actual handicapping and wagering experience I have. As far as having read books go, well yes I've done plenty of that. I just don't have much experience applying what I've read.

I just realized how useful the day trading books could be while I was typing this. A good point I didn't think about day trading when I asked about the usefulness of it with regard to horse racing is the fact that almost all of the books I've read (my favorite author Alexander Elder included) will tell you to trade using RULES based trading which you do not second guess yourself on nor deviate from. For example, choosing to stay in a trade and move your stop loss when your trading rules clearly require a trade to get stopped out, thinking "it might turn around." If you do that, it then it is no longer day trading and becomes gambling instead, and pretty soon your day trading account balance is zero. That same kind of discipline seems necessary to me with horse racing if one does not want an equally demolished racing bankroll.

The odds and probabilities you suggest taught in poker books do seem as well to apply to an overall thinking process that would lend itself well to handicapping. As you say, mindset: you're always thinking about true odds and probabilities which keeps you from "taking a shot" on wagers you know you either have no advantage on or no way of reasonably calculating an advantage. Or in over betting your bankroll: the poker books teach you how to always know the odds so as to avoid over betting the pot, which will in turn keep you focused on making appropriate sized wagers in racing, sports betting, etc. Certainly Mitchell and fractional Kelly wagering force you into this mode as well, but with such an important topic any and all reinforcement is a good thing. I am surprised the correlations didn't occur to me before and that I had to ask!

I will admit that I still think, when not taken as gospel, the other general handicapping books have plenty to offer as far as learning the fundamental concepts of speed, class, pace, form, etc. though. I just consider them a good start, but nowhere near an end point.

Oh, and thanks for reminding me about Dave's Horse Market Investing Package. That's on my "must have list" too, (along with his software and HTR) as well as Overlay's complete package. I've got a ton to learn and absorb, that is for sure! I enjoy it a ton though so I say the more the better. I don't ever feel like I can learn too much.

[DanG]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

The odds and probabilities you suggest taught in poker books do seem as well to apply to an overall thinking process that would lend itself well to handicapping. As you say, mindset: you're always thinking about true odds and probabilities which keeps you from "taking a shot" on wagers you know you either have no advantage on or no way of reasonably calculating an advantage. Or in over betting your bankroll: the poker books teach you how to always know the odds so as to avoid over betting the pot, which will in turn keep you focused on making appropriate sized wagers in racing, sports betting, etc.

Those are great points and you’re going to be dangerous Lateralus. We need more reckless money in the pools; not people who approach this like a financial market.

PA was nice enough to recommend some trading materials / BBS to me a while back and much of what I learned that applies to our form of gambling was almost by osmosis. (I.e. I couldn’t express it as well as you just did) I didn’t pick up too many things that went directly to paper, or into algorithms, but there is no doubt I’m a better gambler after studying these other disciplines.

While HTR is my software of choice, Dave’s ‘Horse Market Investor’ was a real breakthrough for the spot plays I use. It’s just an ingenious / systematic approach to bet sizing and has a clever way of rewarding the inevitable hot streaks and somewhat limits exposure during the dry spells. For an automated betting process (with a few minor tweaks) it’s been a +- 3% rebate and has paid for itself many times over.

Thanks for your thoughts and we will be seeing you at the races.

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by DanG

Those are great points and you’re going to be dangerous Lateralus. We need more reckless money in the pools; not people who approach this like a financial market.

I think there will always be an abundance of reckless money in parimutuel pools thankfully. If the powers that be would do what is necessary to truly improve the popularity of the sport, we could be flooded with additional reckless money. Wouldn't that be nice?

I've been thinking about what the poker and day trading books have to teach a lot lately since the real value of them finally occurred to me. I'm sure there will be many more things that occur to me, but here's one more. Another thing I thought about that can be learned from the poker books is this: odds wise, do you have a hand that should even be played given your position? Or that should be played given a prior raise? The poker books instruct you on how to avoid playing the wrong hand out of position for the wrong price, or staying in on what would have been a good hand save for the raise a player to your right just put in. Apply that to horses, and you have a lot of things to consider that could become second nature: "is this horse really a value bet at the right odds given the probable pace scenario of the race? Or, the odds look good, but when post position and track bias are considered, are these *really* acceptable odds given my horse will be breaking from a bad post position and likely running against the bias? Really examining my odds on ALL fronts, don't I FOLD here and just watch the race just like I would watch the play at the poker table after folding?"

You're absolutely right: poker and day trading books can REALLY get you thinking as you should at the races, or sports betting even, probably causing things to occur routinely and by second nature that otherwise would not of had those books not been studied. Fantastic advice and I'll certainly be studying my poker and day trading books (as well as buying and reading more of them) until those concepts are totally second nature to ANY type of situation in wagering of all kinds.

And don't be surprised if I start playing poker after the races.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Lateralus

I think there will always be an abundance of reckless money in parimutuel pools thankfully. If the powers that be would do what is necessary to truly improve the popularity of the sport, we could be flooded with additional reckless money. Wouldn't that be nice?

I've been thinking about what the poker and day trading books have to teach a lot lately since the real value of them finally occurred to me. I'm sure there will be many more things that occur to me, but here's one more. Another thing I thought about that can be learned from the poker books is this: odds wise, do you have a hand that should even be played given your position? Or that should be played given a prior raise? The poker books instruct you on how to avoid playing the wrong hand out of position for the wrong price, or staying in on what would have been a good hand save for the raise a player to your right just put in. Apply that to horses, and you have a lot of things to consider that could become second nature: "is this horse really a value bet at the right odds given the probable pace scenario of the race? Or, the odds look good, but when post position and track bias are considered, are these *really* acceptable odds given my horse will be breaking from a bad post position and likely running against the bias? Really examining my odds on ALL fronts, don't I FOLD here and just watch the race just like I would watch the play at the poker table after folding?"

You're absolutely right: poker and day trading books can REALLY get you thinking as you should at the races, or sports betting even, probably causing things to occur routinely and by second nature that otherwise would not of had those books not been studied. Fantastic advice and I'll certainly be studying my poker and day trading books (as well as buying and reading more of them) until those concepts are totally second nature to ANY type of situation in wagering of all kinds.

And don't be surprised if I start playing poker after the races.

Some good analogies here. Having studied poker and, on a more limited scale, the market, there are definitely some correlations that can be drawn.

I know one thing for sure, relating to poker, in poker there is a saying that holds firm for any type of gambling: "If you don't know who the fish is, you're it!"

If you don't know when you're making a bad bet, you're in serious trouble.

[acorn54]

[QUOTE=Lateralus]I think there will always be an abundance of reckless money in parimutuel pools thankfully.

i am curious how you come to this perception, is it based on anecdotal evidence such as the fellow horsebettors you personally meet.
the data certainly doesn't support your conclusion as far as i can see. quite the contrary. the parimutuel market if anything is becoming more efficient.
horses win at the probability that they go off at.
in any event i'd like you to point me to the data that supports your perception that their is an abundance of reckless money in the parimutuel pools.

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i am curious how you come to this perception, is it based on anecdotal evidence such as the fellow horsebettors you personally meet.
the data certainly doesn't support your conclusion as far as i can see. quite the contrary. the parimutuel market if anything is becoming more efficient.
horses win at the probability that they go off at.
in any event i'd like you to point me to the data that supports your perception that their is an abundance of reckless money in the parimutuel pools.

Originally Posted by acorn54

the data certainly doesn't support your conclusion as far as i can see. quite the contrary.

What data are you speaking of? Is there existing data either way which shows specific changes over the past 15 years? Or any period? It's my understanding that the public has been setting accurate WIN odds for decades now.

Originally Posted by acorn54

the parimutuel market if anything is becoming more efficient. horses win at the probability that they go off at.

Yes that's true, and all of the 15 year old books I have say this as well. It's my understanding that the public has ALWAYS been good at estimating the win probabilities of horses. But if the market is becoming more efficient and the public has become BETTER at estimating true odds, when did it change? The introduction of Beyer figures into the form perhaps?

Originally Posted by acorn54

in any event i'd like you to point me to the data that supports your perception that their is an abundance of reckless money in the parimutuel pools.

Again, is there actual solid, published data either way? I wouldn't say there is too much in the way of RECKLESS money, that's probably the wrong word to use. But there is plenty of clearly unsophisticated money and always will be. We are taught that proper wagering and money management is the key to profitting at this game, and that a good handicapper with superior wagering and money management skills will do much better than an expert handicapper with poor money management skills. Most have very poor skills in this area. People continue to bet on underlays as most handicappers now, as then, are still simply "looking for the winner" so they can go cash a ticket. Certainly, far more people today compared to then know what an "overlay" is, but at the race & sports books I still mainly see people betting on obvious horses that are anything but overlays. Very few of our competition even tries to calculate fair odds let alone does it effectively. Fewer still know how to calculate a mathematically optimal wager given a certain sized bankroll. It gets much more complicated still when separate bankrolls and calculations are needed for EACH type of wager. Thankfully this is the case, because these folks are going to continue to feed the underlays which makes overlays possible in the first place. Has it gotten harder in the past 10 or 20 years? I don't know. But I still see opportunity everywhere I look.

I don't have any data to show the levels of reckless or uninformed or unsophisticated money in the pools today vs. 10 or 15 years ago. If it exists, I'd love to see it. I can tell you it absolutely exists in the exotic pools however. The exacta pool is anything BUT efficient. I can see silly money all over the exacta probables as well as plenty of juicy overlay combinations in just about every race. I haven't yet read Crist, but that's the next book I'm getting. But Quinn explains the reason for mass inefficiency in the exacta pool in a chapter of his book THE BEST OF THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING, first edition. The chapter is titled "Smart and Silly Money in the Exotics". Most common ways of betting the exacta involve betting too many combinations involving too many low prices horses in boxes and wheels. This is great for us, because of course, they're dumping money into already underlayed combinations. Same goes for the tri, super, daily double and pick 3 pools although improvement has certainly occurred since these wagers were introduced as Quinn admits. It's still pretty freakin bad though, in that handicappers are still routinely betting all of these exotics playing too many combinations of too many overbet favorites and other completely obvious contenders, which guarantee they're making a nice fat underlay bet into whatever exotic pool they're entering. This clearly is good for the rest of us.

[jasperson]

I like to use the contrary opinion from a good on the track handicapper. If a handicapper has strong opinion on a horse that is different from the other traditional handicappers then I give this horse a closer look especially if he has good odds. This opinion must be present at the track and that is his only duty not like Terry Wallace, John Asher, or Jason (blewitt) spelling. Somebody like Ron Nicollette. If Ron likes a horse and the odds are good I will bet him.

[MzDucat]

Having worked around the windows for 25 years I can say something my husband taught me when we first met. The same people consistantly win. The same people consistantly lose. Never to be afraid to only play one race big and dabble in a couple interesting ones. If you try to chase every race, you'll get beat up. We sometimes came and sat out 15 races before we have one worth banging hard.

Money management is the most important. I've known great handicappers who lose. But I would use their best picks in a heartbeat. And you have to evolve with the technology. If you see stuff you don't understand either learn it or walk away with your bankroll. It took us years to adjust to huge simulcast money and off shores can wreak havoc with the pools. Many a time we cancelled our bets because something freaky was going down. Only time I regretted it was Ogyians first start. He broke through the gate, took them to the quarter to catch him up. He fell on his butt when the outrider got hold of the reins. Clerks were killing tickets like mad for the bettors when they stuffed him back in the gate.

He won easily. Only time that happened at the runners. Pretty good stud too.