BEL Fall handle

[TravisVOX]

Here is a look at racing handle since May. October is greatly influenced by the Breeders' Cup since the first day fell in October this year.



The law of large numbers comes into play here IMO. In September, handle dropped a substantial amount - nearly $82 million. This is a huge number. And you can see it's clearly an outlier vs. the other months.

Field size, foal crops, boycotts, weekend warriors leaving the game etc. did not suddenly take effect in September. It is something much, much bigger than that whether it be a team of whales, one whale, many whales or anything in between.

For those who have posted here that such players are bad for the game, well then this should be perceived as a good thing. I'm not enough of an economist to offer an opinion.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Basically TLG is saying that NYRA doesn't think they have problem.

And basically, you're wrong...again...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The question is what exactly caused it, is it necessarily a long-term bad thing, and what can be done, if anything, to correct it.

Is it correct to assume that NYRA (or the industry in general) can trace the source of handle to specific ADWs, simulcast centers, tracks etc...?

That would allow you to determine if the drop was broad or from a specific location (or give you the breakdown between the two if it was both). You might even get to the exact players that dropped out.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Is it correct to assume that NYRA (or the industry in general) can trace the source of handle to specific ADWs, simulcast centers, tracks etc...?

That would allow you to determine if the drop was broad or from a specific location (or give you the breakdown between the two if it was both). You might even get to the exact players that dropped out.

That's what I mentioned a while back in the thread. We could speculate on the reasons, but that source info would provide the answers for this specific decline.

[acorn54]

personally i have drifted away from serious wagering. my betting records attest to the fact that the combination of shorter fields AND lower rebates on my bets have diminished my bankroll substantially. of course the racetracks can rely on the addicted horseplayers, but personally i do not enjoy losing my money as i work hard for it.
dime breakage which is rarely mentioned eats up substantially larger portion of low priced winners, percentage-wise, than on longshots. also shorter fields tend to have lower frequency of longshots winning, according to my betting records, and when there is large take out rates making a profit becomes harder.
as an extreme case, if you bet a football game with two possiblities as to the outcome, the bookmaker only has a vig or take out rate of 1%, whereas in horse wagering the vig or take out rate is 15% or more.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by TravisVOX

Here is a look at racing handle since May. October is greatly influenced by the Breeders' Cup since the first day fell in October this year.



The law of large numbers comes into play here IMO. In September, handle dropped a substantial amount - nearly $82 million. This is a huge number. And you can see it's clearly an outlier vs. the other months.

Field size, foal crops, boycotts, weekend warriors leaving the game etc. did not suddenly take effect in September. It is something much, much bigger than that whether it be a team of whales, one whale, many whales or anything in between.

It's a little smoother month to month than that, because of racedays and other outlying factors, YOY. September was bad, but racedates were drastically down YOY - by about 7% - and there was one fewer Sunday (a couple of points difference there).

It looks like in the aggregate, we are seeing worse gambles, at slightly higher prices with less fluid supply. Even tho the number of races have come down, field size and bettable racing should increase and there should not be a major difference in overall handle. But there is.

[cj]

Hard to believe such big bettors would leave if they were winning. As many have mentioned, with decreased field sizes, increased signal fees (and thus lower rebates), and ever fluctuating odds, they probably have lost the edge they once had if they have in fact left. People don't quit a profitable venture.

[badcompany]

Perhaps the answer to the handle and attendance drop can be found in the film, "This is Spinal Tap.":



Marty: The last time Tap toured America, they where, uh, booked into 10,000 seat arenas, and 15,000 seat venues, and it seems that now, on their current tour they're being booked into 1,200 seat arenas, 1,500 seat arenas, and uh I was just wondering, does this mean uh...the popularity of the group is waning?


Ian: Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no...no, no, not at all. I, I, I just think that the.. uh.. their appeal is becoming more selective.
...

[alydar]

Clearly something happened in September that was unlike any other month. NYRA knows exactly where the shortfall came from. The CHRIMS reports can tell them everything that they would need to know. I am not sure it really matters, in that it seems to have rebounded back.

Comparing handle numbers is extremely difficult to do, with all of the variables that come into play. People need to be careful not to read too much into short term differences.

What is relevant is the overall, long term trends, which everybody here has identified as being negative. These problems are industry wide, and not isolated to NYRA.

NYRA has been really resilient over the years. The loss of NYC OTB and cutting off some rebate shops in the past did not kill its handle the way many thought it would.

Overall, nobody puts on a better show, and I am confident that well into the future NY racing will be around and a leader nationally.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by alydar

Clearly something happened in September that was unlike any other month. NYRA knows exactly where the shortfall came from. The CHRIMS reports can tell them everything that they would need to know. I am not sure it really matters, in that it seems to have rebounded back.

Comparing handle numbers is extremely difficult to do, with all of the variables that come into play. People need to be careful not to read too much into short term differences.

What is relevant is the overall, long term trends, which everybody here has identified as being negative. These problems are industry wide, and not isolated to NYRA.

NYRA has been really resilient over the years. The loss of NYC OTB and cutting off some rebate shops in the past did not kill its handle the way many thought it would.

Overall, nobody puts on a better show, and I am confident that well into the future NY racing will be around and a leader nationally.

I agree, NYRA is the clear leader. Southern California has made several mistakes over the past six years or so, from horrible racing surfaces at Santa, track bias at Santa Anita, raising takeouts, capped off by letting a horse get away with murder in this years biggest race. Gulfstream is speed favoring, Churchill is pathetic, and Keeneland is terrific but has short meets.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by pandy

I agree, NYRA is the clear leader. Southern California has made several mistakes over the past six years or so, from horrible racing surfaces at Santa, track bias at Santa Anita, raising takeouts, capped off by letting a horse get away with murder in this years biggest race. Gulfstream is speed favoring, Churchill is pathetic, and Keeneland is terrific but has short meets.

BUT, Gulfstream WEST is a "closers track"

[classhandicapper]

Doesn't sound like things are getting much better if these numbers are accurate.

http://www.drf.com/news/nyra-no-imme...plans-aqueduct

"It was not mentioned at Wednesday’s board meeting that all-sources handle at the recently concluded Belmont meet was down 9.8 percent, or $32 million, compared with the 2013 Belmont fall meet.

Business has been no better at Aqueduct through the first two weeks of the meet. For the first two weeks of the meet, average daily all-sources handle is $5,774,159, down 22 percent from $7,404,213 through the first two weeks last year. This fall, Aqueduct has run 11 cards, compared with eight through two weeks last year."

[alydar]

Well, it would appear that something significant may be going on.

I guess it will come out eventually.

[pat]

The nyra board is totally worthless they can care less about its customers.$4.50 for the same cup of coffee you get for free in the casino.It appears that the casino is forcing the nyra patrons to their side of the building with its food and beverage prices. No one at NYRA is looking out for their customers as long as they and the horsemen are getting their cut.A bagel and coffee $10.50! !!!!!!!

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by pat

The nyra board is totally worthless they can care less about its customers.$4.50 for the same cup of coffee you get for free in the casino.It appears that the casino is forcing the nyra patrons to their side of the building with its food and beverage prices. No one at NYRA is looking out for their customers as long as they and the horsemen are getting their cut.A bagel and coffee $10.50! !!!!!!!

This is the kind of stuff I just love. You have absolutely no idea what NYRA is or isn't doing about this situation, yet despite seemingly knowing the situation concerning food and Genting, you place the blame squarely on NYRA, while having zero idea what we may be currently doing about this situation.

Typical internet blather. Why care about the truth when you can make something up?