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Old 07-18-2016, 02:31 PM   #391
Capper Al
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Sounds like a classic case of not keeping adequate records. If you don't keep good records, how can you possibly accurately define your strengths and weaknesses? I suspect that lack of record keeping and, as a result, playing many races that should not be played, is a major reason for the astounding percentage of long term losing players in horse racing, and other gambling/investing activities.
Ray,

Basically, I only play one card a week, Mostly skipping is missing out on an opportunity to have fun until next week. Yet, on the other hand, I do consider value but not in the conventional way. I drill down my picks until I find value and play them accordingly. It's more a matter of being in the zone rather than picking a top selection with odds.
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Old 07-18-2016, 02:37 PM   #392
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Going to meet the PA gang in Arlington this Saturday. Needed to put a wrap around my loose rewrite and test it out. The program is a series of modules dropping into a spread with many different speed figs, class figs, pace figs, connection figs, etc. Sometimes I lose my way in the spreadsheet and pick the wrong set of figs. It's looking okay for this stage of development. So I'm testing Finger Lakes for Tuesday 19 July.
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Last edited by Capper Al; 07-18-2016 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 07-18-2016, 02:38 PM   #393
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Finger Lakes Tuesday 19 July Selections

Code:
Before Scratches:

r1: 5  2  1  4  @ 7/2	
r2: 1  5  3  4  @ 5/1	Most Likely
r4: 6  2  1  4  @ 7/2	
r5: 4  3  10 6  @ 4/1	
r6: 5  6  2  8  @ 4/1	
r7: 2  3  7  5  @ 2/1	
r8: 4  3  7  1A @ 2/1	
r9: 5  9  1  2  @ 4/1
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Old 07-18-2016, 02:40 PM   #394
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Finger Lake Long shots 19 July

Code:
Long Shots Before Scratches:

r1: 1, 4
r2: '--
r3: '--
r4: 1, 5
r5: '--
r6: 1
r7: '--
r8: 6
r9: '--
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Old 07-18-2016, 02:49 PM   #395
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Quick overview of Finger Lakes 19 July Card

Races 2, 3, 5, and 7; the trackman, BRIS Prime, and I all agreed on the top selections. It seems like small fields brought out double long shots in races 1 and 4. Since the last version, I'm not trusting my long shots as much. I have been doing better finding long shots within my selections. My long shots are horses that I haven't selected that could surprise. Horse #5 in race 9 might surprise, but it's my top pick and, therefore, not listed as a long shot.
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Old 07-18-2016, 03:03 PM   #396
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Ray,

Basically, I only play one card a week, Mostly skipping is missing out on an opportunity to have fun until next week. Yet, on the other hand, I do consider value but not in the conventional way. I drill down my picks until I find value and play them accordingly. It's more a matter of being in the zone rather than picking a top selection with odds.
Each to his/her own Al, but justifying bad bets, for any reason, still results in bad bets and, money thrown away, IMO. If that's ok with you, no biggie, I guess, Just can't wrap my head around that concept.
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Old 07-18-2016, 03:25 PM   #397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Each to his/her own Al, but justifying bad bets, for any reason, still results in bad bets and, money thrown away, IMO. If that's ok with you, no biggie, I guess, Just can't wrap my head around that concept.
It's more an insight into the race. Most of the time, my selections are the favorites and of none or little value. Dropping down into my selections and putting together a ticket is the art. That has been the biggest lesson from the rewrite. In a way, I didn't know why I was winning in previous years.
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Old 07-18-2016, 04:55 PM   #398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
It's more an insight into the race. Most of the time, my selections are the favorites and of none or little value. Dropping down into my selections and putting together a ticket is the art. That has been the biggest lesson from the rewrite. In a way, I didn't know why I was winning in previous years.
Al I think this rewrite has you on the cusp of being a slot machine player!
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Old 07-18-2016, 06:36 PM   #399
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Al I think this rewrite has you on the cusp of being a slot machine player!
Already working on what the next rewrite is going to be.
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Old 07-20-2016, 06:45 AM   #400
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Al I think this rewrite has you on the cusp of being a slot machine player!
And I don't even know if I like yet.
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Old 07-20-2016, 06:52 AM   #401
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Results Finger Lakes

6 out of 9 in the top two and only 2 winners as top choice. As far as speed figs go: BRIS and Euro tied at 3 races each, AMS had 1 and 2 races were picked by all the figs.
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Old 07-21-2016, 06:58 PM   #402
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AP Saturday 23 Jul 16 -- PA day at Arlington

Okay, getting ready for Arlington this week. Lets see how it goes. Here are my picks:

Code:
Before Scratches

r1: 7  6  4     @ 3/1
r2: 2  4  3     @ 9/2
r3: 5  3  4     @ 7/2
r4: 4  5  2  3  @ 3/1
r5: 5  3  2  6  @ 2/1  Most Likely
r6: 4  2  3  6  @ 2/1
r7: 3  5  8  6  @ 4/1
r8: 5  8  11 3  @ 9/2
r9: 7  6  1  8  @ 7/2
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Last edited by Capper Al; 07-21-2016 at 07:02 PM.
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:00 PM   #403
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Arlington Long shots 23 Jul 16 -- PA Day

Code:
Before Scratches:

Long Shots

r1: '--
r2: '--
r3: '--
r4: 2
r5: '--
r6: '--
r7: '--
r8: '--
r9: 8
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Old 07-21-2016, 07:12 PM   #404
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Overview of AP Card 23 Jul 16

This time I might be cruising for a bruising. The Trackman, BRIS Prime and I only agreed on races 3 and 5. Races 2, 6, 7, and 9 had me agree with either the Trackman or BRIS Prime but those two didn't agree with each other. Boys need to get along!

Only 2 long shots, race 4 and 8. This card is contentious. Could make big bucks or lose everything. I'm not seeing break even or stay close as an option here.
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Old 07-22-2016, 09:20 AM   #405
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Speed Figs AP Saturday 23 Jul 16 -- PA outing

Here's what I have for my various speed figs. Usually does with a count of 6 hits are a must play favorite.

Before Scratches

Code:
AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist		AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist		AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist
Race 1	C	Clm 5000b	A	6		Race 2	A	OClm 40000n2x	A	6		Race 3	C	Clm 25000	T	8
Speed	A	B	C	D		Speed	A	B	C	D		Speed	A	B	C	D
AMS	6	2	4	7		AMS	2	4	6	3		AMS	6	3	1	5
Euro	6	7	2	4		Euro	4	6	3	2		Euro	6	3	5	1
BRIS	7	4	6	1		BRIS	3	4	2	6		BRIS	5	3	4	1
Guest	1	6	5	3		Guest	5	1	6	4		Guest	2	3	6	5
AMS2	6	2	4	7		AMS2	2	4	3	6		AMS2	6	3	1	5
Euro2	6	7	2	4		Euro2	4	6	3	2		Euro2	6	3	5	1
BRIS2	4	7	6	1		BRIS2	3	2	4	6		BRIS2	3	5	4	1
Consensus	6	7	4	2		Consensus	4	3	2	6		Consensus	6	3	5	4
cnt	4					cnt	2					cnt	4			
AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist		AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist		AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist
Race 4	A	OClm 75000n1x	A	8.5		Race 5	A	Alw 26400n1x	T	8		Race 6	C	Clm 10000b	T	8.5
Speed	A	B	C	D		Speed	A	B	C	D		Speed	A	B	C	D
AMS	3	2	4	5		AMS	2	6	5	4		AMS	4	1	5	6
Euro	4	2	5	3		Euro	5	3	2	6		Euro	4	3	1	5
BRIS	4	2	5	3		BRIS	5	3	2	4		BRIS	4	3	5	6
Guest	4	2	5	1		Guest	3	5	1	2		Guest	3	2	4	1
AMS2	3	2	4	5		AMS2	6	2	5	4		AMS2	4	1	5	6
Euro2	4	2	5	3		Euro2	5	3	2	6		Euro2	4	3	1	5
BRIS2	4	2	5	3		BRIS2	5	2	3	4		BRIS2	4	3	5	1
Consensus	4	2	3	5		Consensus	5	2	3	6		Consensus	4	3	1	5
cnt	4					cnt	4					cnt	6			
AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist		AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist		AP 	rType	23-Jul	Surf	Dist
Race 7	MC	Md 25000	T	8.5		Race 8	C	Clm 25000b	T	8		Race 9	M	Md Sp Wt	A	6.5
Speed	A	B	C	D		Speed	A	B	C	D		Speed	A	B	C	D
AMS	3	4	2	7		AMS	11	10	3	9		AMS	8	1	10	2
Euro	3	5	2	4		Euro	11	10	3	9		Euro	8	1	10	2
BRIS	8	5	2	3		BRIS	8	11	10	3		BRIS	7	6	1	8
Guest	5	3	2	8		Guest	5	8	4	2		Guest	6	8	9	10
AMS2	3	4	2	7		AMS2	11	10	3	9		AMS2	8	1	10	2
Euro2	3	5	2	4		Euro2	11	10	3	9		Euro2	8	1	10	2
BRIS2	8	5	2	3		BRIS2	8	11	10	3		BRIS2	6	7	1	8
Consensus	3	5	8	2		Consensus	11	10	8	3		Consensus	8	1	6	7
cnt	4					cnt	4					cnt	4
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