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06-03-2016, 02:56 PM
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#376
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Here are long shots for the first time from the Runners rewrite:
Before Scratches
Code:
Bel LS
r1: --
r2: 2
r3: --
r4: --
r5: --
r6: 1
r7: 7
r8: 4, 6
r9: 8
r10: --
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-03-2016, 03:04 PM
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#377
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Belmont 6/4 analysis
The trackman and BRIS Prime only agreed on two races, #1 and #8. I agreed with both of these. Key speed horses likely to come in the money are as follows:
r1: #8 (Can upset most likely)
r3: #5
r4: #1
r6: #8 (Top selection)
r7: #13
r10: #1 (Top selection)
Good Luck!
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-04-2016, 01:31 PM
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#378
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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fter scratches
Code:
r1: 6 7 8 3 @ 3/1
r2: 7 1 5 2 @ 2/1
r3: 8 5 6 9 @ 3/1
r4: 7 5 1 4 @ 3/1
r5: 4 6 7 10 @ 3/1
r6: 8 3 7 1 @ 3/1
r7: 3 14 10 13 @ 3/1
r8: 2 7 8 5 @ 6/1
r9: 3 9 1A 1 @ 7/1
r10: 1 5 10 13 @ 4/1
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-04-2016, 01:33 PM
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#379
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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After scratches long shots
Code:
Bel LS
r1: --
r2: --
r3: --
r4: --
r5: --
r6: 1
r7: --
r8: 4, 6
r9: 8
r10: --
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-05-2016, 09:50 AM
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#380
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Well the first attempt with the new rewrite wasn't impressive. It was a tough day for most. My measures are how many winners were in my top two selections. I expect over 50%. I had only 50%. Long shots weren't good, but not bad either. Out of 4, one activated with odds and came out of the money. On another note, the public was on one of the long shots that didn't activate and it came in second.
Other measures are: Did the winner come out of the top half of my selections(limited to top 6), and how did the speed figures do? My top half selections are expected to hit 80% on average. It hit 90%. And speed figures have a batting average with the expectation of batting well over 300, and there is also a simple hit or miss out of the top 4 speed figs. I watch closely the "Cons" (consensus) fig to determine the day. It hit 333.3 just making the standard. BRIS2 speed figures won the day which is unusual. A couple of speed figs didn't make the 300 mark.
Code:
Speed Figs
Races 10
Spd UR Rank Hits Miss Spd
AMS 300.0 6 8 2 AMS
Euro 388.9 2 8 2 Euro
BRIS 322.2 5 5 5 BRIS
Guest 277.8 7 6 4 Guest
AMS2 277.8 7 7 3 AMS2
Euro2 377.8 3 7 3 Euro2
BRIS2 422.2 1 7 3 BRIS2
Cons 333.3 4 7 3 Cons
Spd UR Rank Hits Miss Spd
Avg 337.5
Med 327.8
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 06-05-2016 at 09:53 AM.
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07-03-2016, 10:52 AM
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#381
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Just an update, the current rewrite is almost to an end with the last piece, maidens, being added. Haven't been able to wager for a few weeks. Starting to shake and have withdrawals.
Version 3 is on the horizon. Here's what my experience has been for the DIY software developer.
First stage is the application of known formulas which mostly can be found in publications.
Second stage (rewrite) was built on a better understanding of the known formulas plus addition of some homemade formulas. The big one for me has been my speed figs.
Third stage, next rewrite, will be a blend of what works from the okd and new formulas. Also, the presentation and final evaluation (rating) should be much better.
The current rewrite should work well while the new rewrite is underway. The biggest lesson learned was that I lost sight of my wagering methods when I increased my betting.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-16-2016, 10:29 AM
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#382
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Arlington Saturday 16 August Selections
Well it's been a while since I last raced, about six weeks. Maybe days since last handicapped should be a factor?  I have been able to clean up the rewrite in the meantime. The long shots should be fewer since the criteria has been tighten. Some might even go off as a favorite. Practicing for our PA outing next weekend, here's what I have:
Code:
Before Scratches
r1: 2 1 5 @ 2/1 Most Likely
r2: 6 2 4 7 @ 3/1
r3: 2 1 3 5 @ 2/1
r4: 1 2 6 @ 2/1
r5: 1 6 5 8 @ 4/1
r6: 4 1 8 2 @ 3/1
r7: 1 8 4 7 @ 2/1
r8: 2 5 6 4 @ 4/1
r9: 6 8 9 5 @ 3/1
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 07-16-2016 at 10:31 AM.
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07-16-2016, 10:38 AM
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#383
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Overview of AP 16 Aug Card
Six out of nine races(1,2,3,4,5, and 8); the trackman, BRIS PRIME, and I agree on the top choice. We even have much agreement on the top three. As for long shots, here's what I have:
Code:
Long shots before scratches
r1: --
r2: --
r3: --
r4: 4
r5: --
r6: 9
r7: --
r8: 3
r9: --
Good luck!
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-16-2016, 01:38 PM
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#384
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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AP Saturday 16 Jul After Early Scratches
Code:
Selections
r1: 2 1 5 @ 2/1 most likely
r2: 4 2 7 @ 2/1
r3: 2 1 3 5 @ 2/1
r4: 1 2 6 @ 2/1
r5: 1 6 5 8 @ 4/1
r6: 4 1 8 2 @ 3/1
r7: 1 8 4 6 @ 2/1
r8: 2 5 6 4 @ 4/1
r9: 6 8 9 4 @ 3/1
Long Shots
r1: --
r2: 5
r3: --
r4: 4
r5: --
r6: --
r7: --
r8: 3
r9: --
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-16-2016, 01:39 PM
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#385
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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AP Saturday 16 Jul After Early Scratches
Code:
Selections
r1: 2 1 5 @ 2/1 most likely
r2: 4 2 7 @ 2/1
r3: 2 1 3 5 @ 2/1
r4: 1 2 6 @ 2/1
r5: 1 6 5 8 @ 4/1
r6: 4 1 8 2 @ 3/1
r7: 1 8 4 6 @ 2/1
r8: 2 5 6 4 @ 4/1
r9: 6 8 9 4 @ 3/1
Long Shots
r1: --
r2: 5
r3: --
r4: 4
r5: --
r6: --
r7: --
r8: 3
r9: --
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-17-2016, 07:12 AM
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#386
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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AP Saturday review
My main criteria is a winner out of the top 2. The expectation is 50% or more. I hit 5 out of 9. Didn't 30% or better for top pick, only 2 of 9. All three long shots activated and did nothing. Stat wise not impressive. Still feel confident that the stats will be there with tweaking.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-17-2016, 07:55 AM
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#387
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
My main criteria is a winner out of the top 2. The expectation is 50% or more. I hit 5 out of 9. Didn't 30% or better for top pick, only 2 of 9. All three long shots activated and did nothing. Stat wise not impressive. Still feel confident that the stats will be there with tweaking.
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If you were to throw out turf races how did you do?
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07-17-2016, 01:31 PM
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#388
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jasperson
If you were to throw out turf races how did you do?
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I like all races. 99.9% of the time I bet every race on my one weekend card. Sometimes I think turf routes are my thing and other times maidens and other times I think that I can't pick a thing.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-17-2016, 01:58 PM
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#389
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
I like all races. 99.9% of the time I bet every race on my one weekend card. Sometimes I think turf routes are my thing and other times maidens and other times I think that I can't pick a thing.
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Sounds like a classic case of not keeping adequate records. If you don't keep good records, how can you possibly accurately define your strengths and weaknesses? I suspect that lack of record keeping and, as a result, playing many races that should not be played, is a major reason for the astounding percentage of long term losing players in horse racing, and other gambling/investing activities.
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07-17-2016, 04:23 PM
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#390
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
I like all races. 99.9% of the time I bet every race on my one weekend card. Sometimes I think turf routes are my thing and other times maidens and other times I think that I can't pick a thing.
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I also like turf and maiden but I am very selective on the ones that it bet. I won't bet either race if I don't think I have an edge. I down load bris's data for a least 4 tracks and maybe making 5 total bets at these tracks.
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